This year’s State of the Union address has many roles to play.

The speech, which President Biden will deliver to Congress tonight, will be a test of his messaging power. He must convince Americans that the economy is improving, assuage voters that concerns about his age are unfounded and sell voters on the accomplishments of his first term while pitching them on the idea of four more years under his leadership.

TONIGHT’S ADDRESS to Congress comes at a critical moment in the 2024 presidential race. Fresh off a spate of Super Tuesday victories, Biden’s campaign is diving headfirst into the general election contest against former President Trump, who also swept up delegates in Tuesday’s contests. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley ending her campaign Wednesday all but guarantees the rematch in November.

Biden has been hit with low approval ratings in the polls for months, and he is lagging slightly behind Trump, according to polling averages from The Hill and Decision Desk HQ. Meanwhile, a recent New York Times/Siena College poll found 73 percent of registered voters said they either strongly or somewhat agree that Biden is too old to be an effective president.

The State of the Union — a highly televised, typically hour-long speech — will present Biden with an opportunity to set some of those worries at ease, write The Hill’s Alex Gangitano and Brett Samuels. He made it through last year’s State of the Union without any notable hiccups, and created a memorable moment when he went off script and engaged with Republican hecklers over protecting Social Security and Medicare.

THE KEY to Biden’s success in a high-pressure setting is simple, according to Anita Dunn, who oversees communications strategy for the White House.

“Let Joe Biden be Joe Biden,” Dunn told The New York Times in a text message.

This year, Biden is expected to press lawmakers to pass spending bills, approve funding for Ukraine and address the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border. All these measures are stuck in the GOP-led House, where Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has been wrangling an extremely narrow majority.

THE ELECTION IS EXPLICITLY ON THE TABLE when talking about Ukraine and immigration. In both cases, Trump has urged lawmakers to block any legislation. White House chief of staff Jeff Zients told NPR that while it’s “not our assumption” that Congress will not take action, “it’s going to be difficult.”

BIDEN GETS LITTLE CREDIT for a record-breaking job market and lower inflation, according to recent polling. He’s expected to deliver a forceful case for his fiscal policy tonight, touting job market gains while acknowledging the strain many Americans feel because of higher prices since 2019.

Biden on Tuesday announced the formation of a “strike force” to crack down on anti-competitive and unfair practices and to lower prices in key sectors including food, prescription drugs and transportation. The Hill’s Julia Shapero and Sylvan Lane break down the other factors defining the Biden economy. 

The president is compelled to address Israel’s war against Hamas, which has left more than 30,000 dead in Gaza and thousands on the brink of famine. Progressives and activists have criticized Biden for months for not calling for a permanent cease-fire in the enclave. The administration maintains that a temporary cease-fire to be able to swap hostages is essential but that a permanent halt would help Hamas.

Democrats made their discontent known in several states this primary season, casting “uncommitted” ballots in an effort to move the administration to act. While Biden has been unable to broker a long-term cease-fire, Zients said the president will offer a rhetorical shift tonight.

“The president will spend a good deal of time talking about the massive toll on innocent civilians in Gaza,” he told NPR.

NewsNation: Here’s how to watch the State of the Union address at 9 p.m. ET. (It can also be viewed at WH.gov/sotu; the White House’s YouTube channels; X formerly Twitter @WhiteHouse or @POTUS; White House Facebook pages and through The Hill’s liveblog.) 

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📺 GOP STRATEGY: Being chosen to appear following Biden, or any president, to rebut a narrative embedded in a State of the Union speech has evolved into showcasing up-and-coming talent in Congress. Republican Sen. Katie Britt of Alabama is the woman — and that’s by design — who will look directly into a camera late tonight and tell Americans why her party faults Democrats’ priorities and policies. Britt, at 42, is the youngest GOP female elected to the Senate. Her energetic presence will be a visual reminder to voters to help them imagine what Biden’s 81-year-old experience might look like in another four years. 

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LEADING THE DAY

POLITICS

Nikki Haley ended her bid Wednesday for the Republican presidential nomination without endorsing Trump and without signaling where she’ll turn next as the former president campaigns to defeat Biden. 

She told voters for months that nominating Trump meant Republicans would lose in November. After serving in his administration at the United Nations and tip-toeing around Trump’s lock on his party while offering only the mildest of critiques, Haley has some introspection ahead if she wants to try again in 2028 or beyond.

“It is now up to Donald Trump to earn the votes of those in our party, and beyond it, who did not support him and I hope he does that,” she said in remarks to supporters in Charleston, S.C. “At its best, politics is about bringing people into your cause, not turning them away. And our conservative cause badly needs more people. This is now his time for choosing,” she added.

In the Capitol, Trump critic Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said he recognized the time for choosing. He opted to endorse the former president, with whom he has not spoken in years, as the inevitable Republican Party nominee. 

“It is abundantly clear that former President Trump has earned the requisite support of Republican voters to be our nominee for President of the United States. It should come as no surprise that, as nominee, he will have my support,” McConnell said in a statement following Haley’s exit and Trump’s Super Tuesday sweep.

McConnell and other top Republicans in the Senate may try to keep their distance from Trump for the time being, reports The Hill’s Alexander Bolton. Some are skeptical that the former president can attract moderate and swing voters, who are considered key to victory for Senate candidates in battlegrounds.

▪ The New York Times: A deep dive through Super Tuesday’s results revealed Trump’s weaknesses beyond his base, even amid his decisive romp through almost every contest. Biden won everywhere it counted Tuesday, but he’s significantly less popular as president than he was as a candidate in 2020.

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ZOOM IN

CONGRESS

FUNDING, FINALLY: After weeks of agonizing about completing appropriations measures — and leaning on stopgap funding extensions to buy more time — the House on Wednesday approved six spending measures for big chunks of the bureaucracy before sending more than 1,000 pages of details to the Senate ahead of a Friday deadline

The House bundled $450 billion in fiscal 2024 resources for the departments of Veterans Affairs, Agriculture, Interior, Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, Justice, Commerce and Energy and cleared it by a vote of 339-85. Democrats did the heavy lifting with 207 “ayes,” bolstered by 132 Republicans. The Senate is expected to approve the legislation this week. 

The Hill: Two House Democrats, Reps. Maxwell Frost (Fla.) and Mark Takano (Calif.), voted against the spending bill, balking at a firearms provision that would allow veterans assessed as unable to care for themselves to purchase guns.

Rescuing appropriations for the fiscal year that ends Sept. 30 would only be halfway complete. The tougher spending fight lies ahead with six other appropriations bills covering the hotly debated departments of Defense, Homeland Security and Health and Human Services. They’re due on March 22, and top appropriators say those measures face more headwinds and yet another white-knuckle deadline.

“The next tranche is more challenging than the first tranche — not that either one of them [is] easy,” Appropriations Committee member Rep. Steve Womack (R-Ark.) said this week. 

FILIBUSTER: The Senate’s 60-vote threshold to approve basic legislative business to proceed to floor votes is either a frustrating flaw or welcome shield, depending on the partisan viewpoint of the observer in a narrowly divided upper chamber. Debates about preserving or jettisoning the filibuster will recur, especially following the decision by Sinema to leave Congress at the end of her term. She is a rare senator who caucused with Democratic colleagues while standing firm against weakening filibuster rules, The Hill’s Al Weaver reports.

Her defense of the filibuster pleased McConnell, who praised Sinema on Wednesday. He’s announced he will step down from his leadership post in November. Their influence, along with that of outgoing Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), erected a force field around the filibuster that its critics may be able to dismantle. One of those critics used to be Trump, but his opinion since 2017 is best described as conditional more than institutional. 

The Hill: A Senate vote on legislation that would expand eligibility for victims of federal radiation exposure is scheduled Friday. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) is the chief sponsor whose patience has been tested by a year of false starts and rejected amendments, plus friction with McConnell. Hawley’s guest at tonight’s State of the Union speech is a longtime Missouri advocate for victims of nuclear contamination.

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ADMINISTRATION 

Construction planned for the Air Force’s Sentinel nuclear missile modernization program will dominate at military bases in Wyoming, Montana and North Dakota. It’s projected to deliver needed jobs and community investment, but also sparks worries about public and environmental safety and available housing, The Hill’s defense reporter, Brad Dress, reports. In the third article of a three-part series, he explores the local impact.

“This is a huge project,” Minot, N.D., Mayor Tom Ross told The Hill. “It’s probably going to be the largest construction project in the history of the state of North Dakota.” 

REGULATORS: The federal government will require some of the largest publicly traded companies to disclose their levels of greenhouse gas emissions under a watered down new rule from the Securities and Exchange Commission (The Hill). … Ten Republican-led states thus far have filed legal challenges to the SEC’s climate disclosure rule (The Hill and Reuters).

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TRUMP WORLD 

The Supreme Court on Wednesday set April 25 for oral arguments in the Trump immunity case. It could take months for the justices to issue an opinion. If they reject Trump’s claim that he has absolute immunity from prosecution for his behavior and decisions while he was president, which would clear the way for the government’s pending election interference prosecution, the former president could be on trial shortly before the November election.

Georgia legislative scrutiny: A defense attorney who first brought to light a personal relationship between Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis (D) and a prosecutor she hired appeared before a Georgia state Senate committee Wednesday as part of a probe, but offered little new information. Willis argues there is no evidence to support her removal as prosecutor of a case against Trump and other defendants for alleged criminal election interference in 2020.

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ELSEWHERE

INTERNATIONAL

CEASE-FIRE TALKS: Negotiations over a cease-fire in Gaza are at an impasse as Hamas insists on a process to end the war. The U.S., Egypt and Qatar have been trying to broker an agreement that would stop the fighting for six weeks, and include the release of 40 hostages held in Gaza in exchange for Palestinians imprisoned in Israel.

Egyptian officials said that Hamas has accepted the proposal as a first stage, but wants commitments that it will eventually lead to a more permanent cease-fire. But Israel has publicly ruled out that demand, saying it intends to resume the offensive after any cease-fire with the goal of destroying Hamas (ABC News).

The U.S. on Tuesday revised language in a draft United Nations Security Council resolution to back “an immediate cease-fire of roughly six weeks in Gaza together with the release of all hostages,” Reuters reports. The third revision of the text — first proposed by the U.S. two weeks ago — now reflects blunt remarks by Vice President Harris. The initial U.S. draft had shown support for “a temporary cease-fire” in the Israel-Hamas war.

More than three dozen House Democrats are making the case to Biden that an Israeli invasion of Rafah could violate his requirement that U.S. military aid be used in accordance with international law, placing new pressure on the White House to consider suspending aid to Israel. Axios reports that in a letter to Biden, the group cited a memorandum he signed last month requiring any recipient of U.S. aid to provide “credible and reliable written assurances” it will comply with international law. They argued an invasion of Rafah “would likely contravene” the memorandum, noting “the absence of a credible plan” for protecting civilians.

NBC News: In the ruins of Gaza, children are starving to death and there’s no cease-fire in sight. “When children are starting” to “die from starvation, that should be a warning like no other,” said a spokesperson for the U.N. humanitarian office.

A RUSSIAN MISSILE STRUCK near Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s motorcade in the city of Odesa on Wednesday. The missile hit about 490 feet from a motorcade carrying Zelensky, who was accompanied by Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. At a joint press conference with Mitsotakis, Zelensky told reporters that the world “saw this blow today,” referencing the Russian strike that hit near his motorcade (The Hill).

“You can see who we are dealing with, they don’t care where they strike,”Zelensky said. “I know there were victims today, I don’t know all the details yet, but I know there are dead and wounded.”

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THE CLOSER

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