Morning Report — What is Speaker Johnson’s next move on Ukraine and Israel? 

The Ukraine and Israel aid package is inching forward in the Senate — though its future in the House remains on thin ice. 

In an unusual predawn final vote, a bipartisan coalition of senators this morning appeared on the verge of passing the chamber’s $95 billion defense spending package over the staunch opposition of conservatives, who have tried repeatedly to delay the bill. After clearing two procedural hurdles on Monday, senators gathered in the early morning for final approval of the bill before starting their delayed two-week recess. The legislation will now face a vote in the House, where its fate is uncertain.

The New York Times: Here are the Republicans who broke with their party to back Ukraine aid. 

The debate over the measure, which kept senators at work over the weekend and spilled into a scheduled two-week recess, is laying bare divisions within the Senate Republican conference over national security and the nearly three-year-old war in Ukraine, as well as how to reckon with migration and fortify the U.S. southern border. 

SINCE LAST WEEK, 18 Republicans have rallied around the legislation, helping to advance it through the upper chamber despite opposition among GOP colleagues, Republican House leaders and public lobbying to reject the effort voiced by former President Trump. The Hill’s Alexander Bolton reports the process exposed fractures among Senate conservatives and their leadership. 

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) says the legislation represents a “down payment for the survival of Western democracy and the survival of American values.” 

He urged colleagues to wrap up the debate, which has stretched for nearly a week, telling them “it has been long enough” since President Biden first requested the package in October. It briefly included a gingerly crafted and bipartisan border agreement that conservative senators balked at including.  

Trump and right-wing allies still want Senate Republicans to vote no. The pared-down bill without border changes would send $60.1 billion toward helping Ukraine in its fight against Russia, $14.1 billion to Israel for its war against Hamas and almost $10 billion to humanitarian aid for civilians in conflict zones, including Palestinians in Gaza. More than a third of Senate Republicans by Monday cast multiple votes to keep provisions for international assistance moving forward (The New York Times and CNN). 

“I know it’s become quite fashionable in some circles to disregard the global interests we have as a global power. To bemoan the responsibilities of global leadership. To lament the commitment that has underpinned the longest drought of great power conflict in human history,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said Sunday from the chamber floor. “This is idle work for idle minds.” 

The Senate’s weekend work means it’s crunch time for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.). The luxury of ambiguity is expected to end soon, and Johnson will be forced to pinpoint his strategy, with potential consequences for both Ukraine and his own political future. The Hill’s Mike Lillis and Mychael Schnell break down the Speaker’s options — none of which are without pitfalls. 

In a statement, Johnson on Monday slammed the package for excluding border security provisions — ”the Senate’s foreign aid bill is silent on the most pressing issue facing our country” — and suggested that he will not bring it to the floor if the Senate approves it (The Hill).  

“[In] the absence of having received any single border policy change from the Senate, the House will have to continue to work its own will on these important matters,” Johnson wrote. “America deserves better than the Senate’s status quo.” 

The Hill: Republicans vie for top House Energy and Commerce Committee spot. 

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👉 MEET Big Wind Carpenter, a member of the Northern Arapaho Tribe from the Wind River Reservation in Wyoming and participant at last year’s COP28 climate summit. Carpenter told The Hill in an interview that his early years “really taught me to appreciate the environment.”   

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 LEADING THE DAY 

POLITICS 

Biden’s unwillingness or inability to persuade Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to temper Israel’s behavior is drawing fresh criticism among progressive Democrats, despite claims at the White House that the administration pressured Israel in private, writesThe Hill’s Niall Stanage in The Memo. More than 27,000 Palestinians have been killed since Israel’s military began strikes aime at Hamas targets in Gaza in retaliation for the attacks of Oct. 7. 

What if Democrats, some of whom fear Biden’s age could cost him the White House, need a Plan B if the incumbent isn’t or cannot be the nominee?  

Politico Magazine reports that a backup strategy can only be deployed if Biden voluntarily steps aside or is physically unable to stand for nomination. The president is on a glide path to the Democratic nomination and will amass delegates by Super Tuesday. Here’s how one backup plan, however remote the need, is possible — if the incumbent were to step aside and release his delegates after all the primary contests were complete after June 4. Between then and Aug. 19, when the party’s convention happens in Chicago, senior Democrats theoretically would have to jockey to replace Biden, if he retreated from the contest, in a high-stakes battle not seen in decades in American politics. 

Some legal experts criticize Justice Department special counsel Robert Hur’s lengthy report released last week, which noted the president’s age and his allegedly flawed recall, as chronicled during five hours of interviews. Biden refutes some of the findings and says his memory is fine. Critics insist Hur went beyond his mandate.  

House Republicans want Hur to testify to the Judiciary Committee about his report. They contacted the special counsel’s representatives to request his appearance, possibly this month. Hur retained Bill Burck as his personal attorney, CNN reported.  

Biden, reacting to the problem of possession by current and former officials of classified materials in private storage locations, established the Presidential Records Transition Task Force on Monday to help establish best practices, the White House said.  

Hur’s probe cleared Biden of any risk of prosecution but concluded that the president willfully retained information at home and in offices, including top-secret documents and sensitive materials he created. Hur says Biden knew he was in possession of secrets as far back as 2017. The president also shared some of that information with the ghostwriter of his 2017 memoir. Biden’s lawyers between late 2022 and early 2023 voluntarily turned over materials in question and cooperated with an investigation. Former Vice President Mike Pence also found some classified documents in his possession last year, and Trump is being prosecuted for his deliberate retention of White House materials at Mar-a-Lago and alleged efforts to obstruct a federal investigation.    

One major problem identified year after year: overclassification of materials as secret and sensitive.    

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ZOOM IN 

INTERNATIONAL 

Biden and King Abdullah II of Jordan jointly warned against an indiscriminate Israeli invasion of Rafah in southern Gaza on Monday, creating an event that had not occurred since the Israel-Hamas war began more than four months ago — the president standing alongside an Arab leader to voice reservations about the Israeli onslaught in Gaza. 

“The major military operation in Rafah should not proceed without a credible plan to ensure the safety and support of more than 1 million people sheltering there,” Biden said, referring to Israel’s plans to invade the city. “Many people there have been displaced — displaced multiple times, fleeing the violence to the north. And now they’re packed into Rafah, exposed and vulnerable. They need to be protected.” 

Abdullah was more direct in his demands. “We cannot afford an Israeli attack on Rafah. It is certain to create another humanitarian catastrophe,” the king said, adding, “We cannot stand by and let this continue. We need a lasting ceasefire now. This war must end.” 

U.S. officials have privately told members of Congress that Israel is not close to exterminating Hamas more than 100 days into its war. And while Biden himself has not publicly called for a ceasefire, his willingness to stand alongside an Arab leader who did issue such a call was notable (The Washington Post). CIA Director William Burns is expected in Cairo today for talks aimed at securing the release of hostages being held in Gaza and a temporary pause in fighting (The New York Times). 

ISRAEL IS PROPOSING THE CREATION of sprawling tent cities in Gaza as part of an evacuation plan to be funded by the U.S. and its Arab Gulf partners ahead of an impending invasion of Rafah in the enclave’s south, where 1.2 million Palestinians are sheltering. The proposal, which was presented to Egypt in recent days, came as the Biden administration warned Israel against going into Rafah without a detailed plan to protect civilians. Israeli officials pushed back, saying they must carry out a ground offensive to eradicate Hamas (The Wall Street Journal). 

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COURTS 

IMMUNITY APPEAL: Trump on Monday asked the Supreme Court to intervene behind his controversial claim, rejected by an appeals court, of absolute immunity from criminal prosecution for actions and decisions he made as president. His appeal sets up a potentially landmark case at the high court over the bounds of presidential immunity, and it also places the justices in a position to dictate when the former president can head to trial. Such a feat would enable Trump to potentially first return to the White House and subsequently pardon himself or direct his Justice Department to drop the prosecution. 

In one of four criminal cases Trump faces, special counsel Jack Smith charged the former president with four federal felonies that accuse him of conspiring to overturn the results of the 2020 election. Trump pleaded not guilty (The Hill and CNN). 

THE JUDGE IN TRUMP’S GEORGIA CRIMINAL CASE set the stage Monday for a high-stakes battle later on Thursday over whether Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis (D) should be disqualified for her relationship with a top prosecutor in the case. At a Monday proceeding, Judge Scott McAfee vowed to move ahead with an evidentiary hearing where he will weigh accusations by Trump and some of his co-defendants that the relationship constitutes a conflict of interest (The Hill).  

TRUMP ATTENDED A HEARING Monday under U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon for the government’s classified documents prosecution against him in Florida. Following the appearance of Trump and his attorneys, Justice Department Special Counsel Jack Smith presented arguments to Cannon outside the presence of the defendant’s attorneys (ABC News).  

Supreme Court justices on Friday will consider a petition involving a New Mexico state official who participated in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack in Washington on the Capitol. County Commissioner Couy Griffin, found guilty of entering a restricted Capitol area during the riot, was booted from office by a New Mexico judge on the basis of the 14th Amendment and allegations of insurrection. Griffin, the founder of Cowboys for Trump, wants the high court to hear his appeal days after hearing from Trump’s lawyer contesting Colorado’s decision to remove the former president and current GOP front-runner from the state ballot (The Hill).  

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ELSEWHERE 

ADMINISTRATION & TRENDS 

IRS MISSES A DEADLINE: An unlimited number of Americans were supposed to be able to use a new IRS “direct file” online tax filing system for free next month. But the program is still being tested, an IRS official told The Hill’s Tobias Burns. The agency will process returns from 1,200 people in states without income tax through direct file as part of the testing phase before opening it up to California, Texas, New York and other higher-population pilot states.   

PREEMIE BOOM: Physicians say they’re puzzled why births of preterm infants climbed 12 percent between 2014 and 2022, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Their hypotheses? Maternal obesity and conditions such as hypertension and diabetes, plus environmental factors such as air pollution and exposure to chemicals found in common plastic products (The Hill).  

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THE CLOSER 

And finally …  ❤️ Love, obligation, inspiration, obsession: Americans honor (and sometimes ignore) Valentine’s Day. They show their feelings with flowers, candy, TikTok videos and USPS Priority Mail. Supposedly, AI has a hand in writing today’s love notes. Surprised? Probably not. A machine has been tasked to replicate human hearts. Love me? Love me not.  

Americans are projected to spend $25.8 billion on the holiday, according to a National Retail Federation’s survey. The whole ritual has come a long way from its roots, which began with a grim death or two — not with crimson blossoms and baby’s breath. Two martyred men executed in different years on Feb. 14 by Roman Emperor Claudius II in the 3rd century were apparently honored by the Catholic Church with the celebration of St. Valentine’s Day. Rebranding! 💘 

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