Morning Report — How long will Nikki Haley stay in?

by Alexis Simendinger and Kristina Karisch - 01/25/24 6:30 AM ET

Editor’s note: The Hill’s Morning Report is our daily newsletter that dives deep into Washington’s agenda. To subscribe, click here or fill out the box below.

Will she stay in, or is Nikki Haley on her way out of the Republican presidential race after trailing former President Trump in Iowa and New Hampshire?

The former South Carolina governor, who vows to challenge Trump in her home state on Feb. 24, taunted the frontrunner during a rally in North Charleston on Wednesday night and urged him to agree to a debate. 

“Bring it Donald, show me what you got,” she said to cheers.

Haley is consulting campaign staff, donors and advisers to weigh her options and size up what many describe as a long-shot path to try to surpass Trump in delegates to capture the GOP nomination. 

She got this far in the 2024 race after gaining the backing of Wall Street titans, wealthy donors and a group funded by industrialist Charles Koch. She attracted moderate Republicans and independents and came in third and second in two small states, respectively, but was not within single digits of Trump. She’s now under intense pressure from the former president’s animated supporters to clear the field so Trump can take on President Biden. 

“I just had one donor text me who has raised over $100k for Haley who just told me they are done. It’s over,” one GOP fundraiser told CNBC on Tuesday. “I’m sure there [are] more.”

Haley’s campaign on Wednesday announced a $4 million ad buy in South Carolina intended to remind voters about her personal story and what she accomplished as governor. The two ads don’t take aim at front-runner Trump or rebut his criticisms about her. It has been seven years since she resigned as governor to serve in the Trump administration as U.N. ambassador and then enter the private sector — a lifetime in Palmetto State politics.

On Wednesday morning, the GOP hopeful spoke with Republicans in the U.S. Virgin Islands, which will apportion four total delegates in Feb. 8 caucuses. 

▪ The Hill: Five factors that could decide a Trump-Biden race.

▪ The Hill: Trump sees warning signs with voters ahead of November.

© The Associated Press / Alex Brandon | President Biden received the campaign endorsement of the United Auto Workers on Wednesday while appearing with UAW President Shawn Fain in Washington.

Meanwhile, Biden on Wednesday exulted in a coveted campaign endorsement from the United Auto Workers, the powerful union with grassroots organizational skills that can help turn out voters in Michigan and other key battleground states in November. Biden describes himself as the most pro-union president ever and made history by walking a picket line with striking autoworkers last fall. 

The Hill: Biden fails to calm Democratic angst after his New Hampshire win. 

UAW President Shawn Fain, who linked arms with the president during the union’s convention in Washington on Wednesday, blasted Trump as a “scab.” Nonetheless, if Trump’s electoral past is prologue, many rank-and-file union members spanning trades and occupations will enthusiastically cast ballots for the former president if he’s the GOP nominee.

3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY

▪ Risking a new rift with the U.S., Israel is constructing a vast wasteland described as a flattened military zone along the Gaza border.

▪ Crime is a national political issue and crime in Oakland, Calif., is out of control, residents and merchants complain. In-N-Out Burger is reacting by shuttering its location there for the first time in its 75-year history because of car break-ins, property damage, theft and robberies affecting customers and employees. Separately this week, a 2-year-old kidnapped in a suspected carjacking outside the child’s Oakland home while in a car seat was later found wandering on a street near a warehouse and reunited with his mother.

▪ An Alabama execution scheduled tonight will use nitrogen gas, a first, to attempt to end the life of a 58-year-old convicted killer. Critics say the use of gas is cruel and experimental. The state says it’s humane.

THIRD PARTY: What are the odds of a third-party presidential ticket in 2024? After Iowa and New Hampshire, it looks more possible. “There are a lot of people who do not like Joe Biden, do not like Donald Trump, and if Trump wins by 10 points [in New Hampshire] … the conversation is going to be, ‘Is there going to be a third-party candidate, does that third-party candidate have credibility, and will people be looking for an alternative to the two-party system?’ I think the answer to that is yes,” pollster and political communications consultant Frank Luntz told Bloomberg Radio on Tuesday as the former president stretched his margin of victory to more than 11 points in the Granite State.

“If America wants another choice, we’re gonna offer it to them, and that’s why we’ve been working hard to secure ballot access across the country,” No Labels National Director Joe Cunningham told The Hill Wednesday, adding the group won’t disclose plans or candidates until after March 5. The group thus far has ballot access in 14 states. 

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who is not seeking reelection and has been pondering a presidential race, possibly on a No Labels ticket, said he’ll wait until after Super Tuesday contests in early March to size up the terrain. “Super Tuesday pretty much confirms whatever is going to happen, what we believe will happen, and we’ll see where we go from there,” he told reporters Tuesday. “Whether it’s me or whoever it may be, I think there’s going to be options.”  

Joe Lieberman, a former Connecticut senator and co-chair of No Labels, said last week that Haley deserves serious consideration if she’s interested in the group’s plan to find an alternative if the choice is between Trump and Biden. 

LEADING THE DAY

© The Associated Press / Alex Brandon | Former President Trump, pictured in 2019, appeared in the Capitol with Republican Sens. Mitch McConnell (Ky.), who was then the majority leader, John Barrasso (Wyo.), John Thune (S.D.) and Roy Blunt (Mo.), along with former Vice President Mike Pence.

MORE POLITICS

Trump’s resounding win in New Hampshire is putting the squeeze on Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), writes The Hill’s Al Weaver. Allies of Senate leadership are increasingly getting behind Trump’s campaign after he defeated Haley in New Hampshire. Sens. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) are the latest senators to endorse Trump. 

The moves are raising increased questions, including how McConnell and Thune will handle the former president, and what it means for their future atop the conference. 

“If everyone is not getting on board, you are helping the Democrats out and you’re making that calculation,” Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.) told The Hill. “Even the folks who have wrestled and have had a shaky history with Trump need to, if we’re going to win and not be disappointed, get on board.” 

Notable: Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), the Senate’s leading GOP centrist, said Wednesday she won’t endorse Trump (The Hill).

2024 ROUNDUP

▪ Independent presidential contender Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said Wednesday his campaign collected sufficient signatures to get on the ballot in New Hampshire in November. He’s on the ballot in Utah. 

▪ Former Democratic Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio is campaigning to return to Congress, this time as an independent. Until last fall, he was a presidential campaign manager for Kennedy.

▪ Texas Republican Gov. Greg Abbott on Wednesday criticized a Supreme Court ruling this week that allows the Border Patrol to remove razor wire installed by Texas along the U.S.-Mexico border. The Biden administration is breaking a compact with the states, he said in a statement.

▪ Jeff DeWit, the chairman of the Arizona Republican Party, announced his resignation Wednesday after a recording was made public that appeared to show him attempting to entice Republican Kari Lake to sit out the 2024 Senate race.

WHERE AND WHEN

The House meets for a pro forma session at 3 p.m.

The Senate will meet at 10 a.m.

The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 9 a.m. Biden will fly to Duluth, Minn., and then travel to Earth Rider Brewery in Superior, Wis., to speak at 1 p.m. CST about investing in infrastructure. He’ll return to the White House tonight.

Vice President Harris is in California and will head to Sacramento to address a reception hosted by the California State Legislature Democratic Caucus and then headline a campaign fundraiser before returning to Los Angeles.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Angola for events and meetings that began this morning with a visit to Luanda Science Center and Africell and the expo for the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment. Blinken will meet in the morning with employees and families of U.S. Mission Angola and Sao Tome and Principe, followed by separate meetings with Angolan President João Lourenço and Foreign Minister Téte António. The secretary and António will hold a joint press conference at midday in Luanda.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is in the Windy City where she will meet with Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) for breakfast at a local restaurant. She will address the Economic Club of Chicago at 1:35 p.m. ET, then participate in a brief fireside conversation with Sean Connolly, club chair and president and CEO of Conagra Brands Inc. Yellen will join another fireside conversation at 5:30 p.m. ET with Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and members of the civic committee and the Commercial Club of Chicago. The secretary at 9 p.m. ET will tape a segment for NPR’s “Wait Wait… Don’t Tell Me!” program, for broadcast on Saturday.

Economic indicators: The Commerce Department at 8:30 a.m. will report on gross domestic product in the fourth quarter of 2023 and as measured for the year. The Labor Department will report on claims for unemployment benefits filed in the week ending Jan. 20.

First lady Jill Biden will speak at 3:30 p.m. at the White House about gun violence prevention.

The Federal Trade Commission from noon to 4:30 p.m. ET will hold a virtual tech summit about artificial intelligence. Information is HERE.

ZOOM IN

© The Associated Press / J. Scott Applewhite | Republican senators on Wednesday said they were critical of a pending border security bill being negotiated this week.

CONGRESS

Senate conservatives are ratcheting up their opposition to an emerging bipartisan deal that would fund Ukraine and address border security. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) argued at a press conference Wednesday with other GOP senators that Trump was able to drive the number of migrants crossing the border to just more than 500 people a day “without this stinking pile of crap bill.” He accused Republicans negotiating the legislation of only wanting to provide money for the war in Ukraine and said they will merely provide the semblance of border security reform to achieve that objective (The Hill).  

“It’s not that they’re bad at negotiating. It’s that they want this outcome, and this outcome is terrible for the American people,” Cruz fumed.  

Republican senators used a special conference meeting Wednesday to air their deepening differences over Ukraine aid, as the party continues to wrangle internal divisions over funding that’s set for attachment to a stalled $100 billion-plus national security spending package also benefiting Taiwan, Israel and border security. The meeting followed a heated Tuesday Senate GOP lunch that put the rift over the Ukraine-border talks on full display.

One idea being floated is focusing any new Ukraine aid on the military, an attempt to sell the funding to skeptical colleagues within their own ranks (Politico).

“Focusing military aid to Ukraine on military aid and letting some of the other countries that maybe don’t do as much on military aid, like Canada and the EU, [focus] on direct budget support and some econ aid, that is really to me a growing consensus amongst our conference that could help get the Ukraine aid over the goal line with a lot of Republican support,” said Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska).

▪ Politico: Congressional Democrats on Wednesday delivered their latest rebuke to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, aligning behind a declaration that the U.S. remains staunchly supportive of a Palestinian state.

▪ CNN: The House Ethics Committee investigating Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) has reached out to the woman whom the congressman allegedly had sexual relations with when she was a 17-year-old minor.

INTERNATIONAL

Israel’s campaign to defeat the Palestinian militant group Hamas is coming under enormous strain more than 100 days into its devastating war in Gaza. International pressure to end the war is mounting, domestic fissures over the war are expanding, families of hostages are demanding a deal to secure their release, and Hamas fighters regularly ambush Israeli soldiers, showing the group is far from defeated. Yet Israeli Netanyahu has repeatedly doubled down on a military strategy with unclear goals that is expected to last beyond 2024. While most Western nations back the U.S. and Israel, the European Union’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, has questioned Israel’s strategy in Gaza and called for a diplomatic solution (The Hill). 

“More death, more destruction, more hardship for the Gaza people, for the Palestinian people, will not help to defeat Hamas,” Borrell said at a Monday press conference. “It will not bring more security to Israel or the country.” 

Two tank rounds hit a United Nations training center in southern Gaza on Wednesday, killing at least 12 people, injuring 75 others and starting a blaze at a facility where hundreds of people displaced by fighting had taken shelter. Thomas White, head of Gaza operations for UNRWA, the United Nations agency that coordinates aid to Palestinian refugees, said that the center, in the southern city of Khan Younis, had been unreachable for two days and that people were trapped (Al Jazeera).

▪ The New York Times: A U.N. office said Israel’s detention and treatment of Palestinian detainees might amount to torture. It estimated thousands had been detained and held in “horrific” conditions. Some were freed wearing only diapers.

▪ The Washington Post: What to know about Israel’s controversial “buffer zone” in Gaza.

▪ The New York Times: South Africa has accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza. Israel’s legal team has challenged the charge by providing the court with secret orders made by Israel’s civilian and military leaders.

Mass casualties among Russian troops in the first two years of its war in Ukraine, combined with Western pressure and aid to Kyiv, has shifted Moscow’s posture on use of nuclear weapons. Russian President Vladimir Putin — who since the start of the war has warned of “consequences that you have never faced in your history” should the West interfere — could resort to smaller non-strategic nuclear weapons to force the conflict to end on his own terms, experts told The Hill’s Ellen Mitchell.

A military plane crashed en route to Belgorod, Russia. But whether it carried Ukrainian prisoners of war destined for an exchange, as asserted by Russia, was in dispute Wednesday. Ukraine had not confirmed the Kremlin’s account of a Ukrainian terrorist attack. But what or who was on the plane, and what was responsible for the destruction? 

ELSEWHERE

© The Associated Press / John Minchillo | Writer E. Jean Carroll, pictured in Manhattan in December, is seeking more damages from former President Trump in her second defamation trial, which is set to resume today.

TRUMP WORLD 

TRUMP’S DEFAMATION DAMAGES TRIAL is scheduled to resume today after a three-day postponement stemming from a courtroom COVID-19 scare. At issue is whether the former president has to pay writer E. Jean Carroll additional damages for defaming her in 2019 when he denied her allegations of sexual abuse. ABC News has a roundup of five key questions as proceedings kick off again.

▪ Business Insider: Carroll may face a hefty tax bill if Trump owes her money — thanks to a law he signed while president.

▪ Bloomberg Law: The Supreme Court will release opinions for the second time this term on Feb. 8, the same morning the justices will hear Trump’s appeal to stay on the 2024 primary ballot in Colorado.

▪ The Hill: New York Attorney General Letitia James (D) cited Martin Shkreli’s pharma industry ban in Trump’s real estate fraud case.

OPINION

■ A conspiracy against No Labels, by William P. Barr, opinion contributor, The Wall Street Journal

■ The GOP primary is effectively over — now it’s up to the media to save us from Trump, by Max Burns, opinion contributor, The Hill.  

THE CLOSER

© The Associated Press / Becky Bohrer | Denali National Park in Alaska in 2016.

Take Our Morning Report Quiz

And finally … It’s Thursday, which means it’s time for this week’s Morning Report Quiz! Inspired by international jesting about reclaiming old territories, we’re eager for some smart guesses about U.S. land expansion.

Please email responses to asimendinger@digital-stage.thehill.com and kkarisch@digital-stage.thehill.com — and be sure to add “Quiz” to your subject line. Winners who submit correct answers will enjoy some richly deserved newsletter fame on Friday.

Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier this week issued a decree regarding the reclamation of historic real estate holdings abroad — including Alaska, which Russia sold to the U.S. in 1867 for how much?