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Former President Trump on Tuesday decisively defeated challenger Nikki Haley in the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary, propelling him toward the nomination and a rematch of the 2020 race he lost to President Biden.
With 91 percent of the ballots tallied as of early this morning, Trump has captured 54.5 percent of the vote in a state that had been viewed as Haley’s best chance for victory because of the large population of independent and undeclared voters. She trailed in second place with 43.2 percent after finishing third in Iowa behind Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who bowed out last week and endorsed the former president.
TRUMP HAD HOPED THE GENERAL ELECTION would begin today, despite Haley’s vows to remain in the race to compete Feb. 24 in South Carolina, her home state, where Trump enjoys a significant lead in polls and the firm backing of GOP leaders there.
Shortly after The Associated Press called the race for Trump when polls closed at 8 p.m., Haley spoke to cheering supporters and congratulated Trump, saying the former president “earned” his win.
“New Hampshire is first in the nation. It is not last in the nation. … This race is far from over,” Haley said, describing her determination to compete in the Palmetto State and perhaps beyond.
Haley’s campaign has the war chest to stay in the race but Trump boasts that she’ll be humiliated if she continues. His super PAC called on her to drop out Tuesday. In the Palmetto State, Trump leads by more than 30-points, according to the Decision Desk HQ and The Hill poll tracker.
Before New Hampshire’s GOP ballots had been counted, Trump told reporters, “It doesn’t matter” if his former U.N. ambassador stays in the race. Trump’s more than 11-point margin of victory over Haley as of this writing suggests Haley will be stymied in her search for a path to the nomination, analysts said. The turnout in New Hampshire set a primary record — another sign of Trump’s sway.
Trump told his New Hampshire supporters in election-night remarks that Haley “had a very bad night.” Turning his attention to Biden, Trump asked, “Who can’t” defeat him? In a speech dotted with fictions, veiled warnings and broadsides, Trump also bashed popular Republican Gov. Chris Sununu, who stumped for the former South Carolina governor up and down the Granite State.
The Hill: Trump tears into Haley after his New Hampshire victory.
Haley repeated her argument that she’s more electable in November against Biden than the former president, according to recent surveys, an assertion disputed by a large majority of Republican voters who say they back Trump. Her critiques of her former boss appeal to voters who dislike the former president and feel lukewarm about Biden, but she has failed to demonstrate in the first two nominating states that she can shift enough Republicans into her column by changing their minds with critiques about Trump’s “chaos.”
The Hill’s Niall Stanage, in his analysis of the first-in-the-nation primary, concludes “the GOP of 2024 is Donald Trump’s party.”
THE INCUMBENT: Biden’s team sought Tuesday night to reassure nervous Democrats that the president is ready for the contest ahead, announcing a redeployment to Delaware of two trusted senior White House aides who are close to the president who will take up the reins of his campaign operation.
Democratic political veterans, including former Obama strategist David Axelrod, have questioned the president’s slow-motion Rose Garden campaign, messaging, poll numbers in key battleground states and sagging reception among younger voters, Hispanics and Black men. “His performance is a problem,” Axelrod said Tuesday on CNN, referring to Biden. “That is what Trump is going straight at.”
WRITE-IN WINNER: Biden, who said Tuesday that the “stakes could not be higher,” won in New Hampshire despite not being on the ballot. The president skipped the race after the Democratic party changed its rules in favor of seeing South Carolina hold the first nominating contest of the year. His victory comes after a grassroots write-in campaign supported by $1.5 million from a super PAC. Biden’s margin of victory was not yet clear as of this writing, with more than 15 percent of write-in ballots still unprocessed.
© The Associated Press / Charles Krupa | Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley came in second place in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday.
3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY:
▪ Endorsement: Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) endorsed Trump on Tuesday. He’s among the “three Johns” vying to become a future GOP Senate leader to succeed Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).
▪ Russia can see Alaska from the Kremlin. The State Department this week brushed off reports of Russian President Vladimir Putin ordering his government to look into the nation’s former “real estate” abroad, saying Alaska will remain in American hands.
▪ The world is 90 seconds away from global catastrophe on the Doomsday Clock, a dire warning but one that has not moved since last year, according to the annual update from the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.
📞 Generative artificial intelligence (AI) is front and center in the 2024 presidential race, as predicted by experts months ago, reports The Hill’s Rebecca Klar. Alarmed reactions to a deepfake robocall to voters this week using a digitally altered facsimile of Biden’s voice were all-too familiar: Can rules and guardrails that are yet to be erected against AI disinformation be enforced to protect U.S. elections — and how? Audio deepfakes are easy to edit, cheap to produce and particularly difficult to trace. They can circulate so effectively right before elections that disinformation is difficult to counter in time to avert voter interference. Just ask Slovakia.
LEADING THE DAY
MORE POLITICS
Biden on Tuesday directly blamed Trump for the erosion of abortion access across the country and warned supporters another Trump presidency would further curtail reproductive rights. Biden, appearing at George Mason University’s campus in Manassas, Va., at his first campaign rally of the year, put the focus squarely on reproductive rights, an issue he and other Democrats are hoping will rally the party’s base heading into November.
“Let there be no mistake. The person most responsible for taking away this freedom in America is Donald Trump,” Biden said. “The reason women are being forced to travel across state lines for health care is Donald Trump. The reason their fundamental right has been stripped away is Donald Trump.”
During his term in office, Trump appointed three conservative justices to the Supreme Court, which in 2022 issued a decision overturning the long-standing Roe v. Wade ruling. State governments across the country have since instituted laws dramatically curtailing abortion rights (The Hill).
The Hill: Cease-fire chants drowned out Biden at Tuesday’s abortion rights rally.
2024 ROUNDUP:
▪ 🗳️ Early Democratic primary voting: California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is appearing this week as a surrogate supporting the Biden-Harris ticket ahead of the South Carolina and Nevada Democratic primaries. In the Palmetto State where the Democratic primary takes place on Feb. 3, Newsom will tout early primary voting (it began Monday) as he participates in a town hall at a retirement community and will join a Thursday Morris College rally in Sumter, S.C. Newsom in Las Vegas will encourage voter turnout in a state with a growing Hispanic population. The Democratic primary in Nevada is on Feb. 6.
▪ As Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) returns to Tallahassee, the capital is abuzz about how he’ll wield power during the rest of his term. His struggles as a presidential candidate began to erode his clout in the state capital last fall, according to lawmakers, lobbyists and consultants.
▪ Vermont lawmakers back legislation that would impose new taxes on the state’s wealthiest residents, echoing a national Democratic policy goal.
▪ Louisiana has a new congressional map, with a second majority-Black district. The new map is a win for Black voters and could see Democrats gain another seat in Congress this fall.
▪ Two prominent donors to No Labels who say they backed “bipartisan activism” rather than a possible third-party presidential project this year opted to sue the centrist political group for allegedly pulling a “bait and switch.”
WHERE AND WHEN
The House meets for a pro forma session Thursday at 3 p.m.
The Senate will meet at 10 a.m.
The president will speak at a political event at the Marriott Marquis Hotel in Washington at 1:30 p.m. He will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 3:30 p.m.
Vice President Harris will travel to Los Angeles to speak at 5:40 p.m. at a Manhattan Beach, Calif., campaign reception. She will remain in Los Angeles overnight.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Nigeria and will head to Angola during his itinerary in Africa this week.
Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff is in Chicago, where he will speak at a campaign event at 5:30 p.m. CT.
The White House daily press briefing is scheduled at 11:45 a.m.
ZOOM IN
CONGRESS
DEAL OR NO (BORDER) DEAL? Senate conservatives vented their frustrations with Senate GOP leaders Tuesday over an emerging border security deal that is slated to reach the Senate floor in the next few weeks, warning that an agreement with Biden may wind up being worse than doing nothing at all. Republicans including Sens. Mike Lee (Utah), Ron Johnson (Wis.) and Ted Cruz (Texas) complained about being left in the dark about key details and warned that the deal could hurt Republicans’ chances of keeping control of the House in the 2024 election, The Hill’s Alexander Bolton reports.
“Several points of view came out … at decibel levels a little higher than normal,” Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.) quipped about the heated debate over the expected deal on Ukraine funding and border security. “I think it’s because it’s taken so long, and now there’s talk about maybe getting something to the floor and voting on it in a day or two. I think that would cause a real uproar. It’s going to be a large, complicated bill to where you don’t have [an] adequate amount of time to pore through it properly.”
Sen. James Lankford (Okla.), the lead GOP negotiator on the package, said there won’t be a vote on the proposal this week as senators work to iron out final sticking points. But Lankford said he is “very hopeful” that he and Sens. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) can release the text of the deal they have been negotiating sometime this week (Politico).
HOUSE REPUBLICANS HAVE NOT WARMED to the potential bipartisan deal that may emerge from the Senate to provide additional funding for Ukraine, reports The Hill’s Mike Lillis. Their priority: border security. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is demanding that any new aid for Kyiv be accompanied by tougher policies on border migration; House Democrats have rejected those policy changes out of hand.
The Hill: Senate negotiations over a border policy proposal tied to aid for Ukraine are snagged on the White House’s immigration parole authority, according to GOP senators who have publicly weighed in on the talks. Here’s what to know about the policy.
TEXAS SHOULD IGNORE a 5-4 Supreme Court ruling this week allowing the administration to order the removal of razor wire erected at the border by the Texas government to block migrants, Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), a former Texas assistant attorney general, said Tuesday. “Texas leaders still have the duty to defend their people,” the lawmaker told Fox News Digital. Texas law enforcement has prevented U.S. Border Patrol from accessing the blocked area, which the federal government argues prevents agents from controlling the border and impeded agents from saving the life of a mother and two children who drowned in the Rio Grande.
© The Associated Press / Fatima Shbair | A makeshift tent camp in Rafah, Gaza, on Tuesday.
INTERNATIONAL
Israel and Hamas have made some progress toward agreement on a possible 30-day ceasefire in Gaza when Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners would be released, Reuters reports. Qatar, the U.S. and Egypt have for weeks gone between Israel and the militant group trying to broker terms for a break in fighting, which would also allow in more food and medical supplies. The Israeli military said Tuesday that its ground troops have encircled the southern city of Khan Younis in Gaza, the hometown of Hamas leader Yehya Sinwar and the site of heavy fighting in recent weeks that has forced thousands to flee (The Washington Post).
Biden’s relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is showing new signs of strain amid the war in Gaza, which has put both leaders under extraordinary political pressure. Biden has stood firm in defense of Israel despite intense backlash among voters calling for a ceasefire, but Netanyahu’s rejection of Biden’s push for a two-state solution in a day-after scenario for Gaza is challenging Biden’s efforts to stand strong in the face of Israel’s critics. The Israeli leader also appears to be blocking U.S. efforts to broker a new hostage deal (The Hill).
“What’s happening now is that Prime Minister Netanyahu is rebuffing the Biden administration at virtually every turn,” said Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.). “Ignoring their entreaties, slapping down the proposal to move quickly toward a two-state solution, I would think there’s a point when the Biden administration runs out of patience, they have a lot more patience than I would. I think that Prime Minister Netanyahu’s actions are hurting Israel and I think they’re hurting the United States.”
The Turkish parliament voted Tuesday to approve Sweden’s NATO membership bid, bringing the Nordic country one step closer to joining the military alliance after months of delays. The vote was the second step of Turkey’s ratification process after the parliament’s Foreign Affairs Commission approved the bid last month. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan can now sign the protocol into law (CNN).
The Hill: NATO chief says the Ukraine war has become a “battle of ammunition.”
ELSEWHERE
TRUMP WORLD
A federal appeals court declined a Trump effort Tuesday to have his challenge to a gag order in his election interference case heard by the full court, teeing up a likely Supreme Court battle over restrictions to his speech. That decision largely affirmed a prior ruling from Judge Tanya Chutkan, who barred Trump from making statements that “target” foreseeable witnesses, court staff and prosecutors (The Hill).
The trial of E. Jean Carroll’s defamation lawsuit against Trump was postponed again Wednesday and will resume Thursday. The court did not offer a reason for the additional delay, but the trial was originally postponed for a day after Judge Lewis Kaplan said in court Monday that a juror had reported flu-like symptoms and would be getting a COVID-19 test (The Hill and The New York Times).
Trump’s fiercest allies have latched onto unconfirmed allegations of an office romance between Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis (D) and Special Prosecutor Nathan Wade. The controversy may have little legal impact on the pending 2020 election interference racketeering case involving Trump and co-defendants, reports The Hill’s Ella Lee. There are no laws that would require Willis or Wade to step back from the case, but PBS reports there are ways Willis could be removed.
HEALTH & WELLBEING
TWO MILLION NEW CANCER CASES are projected to occur in the U.S. in 2024, a record, with incidences of six out of the top 10 cancers expected to rise, according to the American Cancer Society. One factor is the aging population, The Hill’s Joseph Choi reports.
DEAFNESS AND GENE THERAPY: Children born with a specific type of congenital deafness could regain their hearing with new therapy, according to researchers. Aissam Dam, an 11-year-old boy from Morocco, last year became the first person with congenital deafness to regain his hearing after the new treatment targeting a specific gene (The New York Times).
OPINION
■ Donald Trump is very confused, by Dana Milbank, columnist, The Washington Post.
■ Nikki Haley vows to fight on after New Hampshire, by The Wall Street Journal editorial board.
THE CLOSER
© The Associated Press / Jaap Buitendijk, Warner Bros. Pictures | “Barbie” director Greta Gerwig and lead actor Margo Robbie were not nominated for Oscars on Tuesday, sparking complaints from movie fans.
And finally … Fans of the movie “Barbie,” its star Margot Robbie and admirers of its director, Greta Gerwig, were left fuming Tuesday when Oscar nominations omitted the two women in marquee categories but included a Best Supporting Actor nomination for Ryan Gosling, who played a goofy Ken in the top-grossing film. Critics suggested sexism and cluelessness: Snubbed!
Gosling, responding to the furor, issued a statement, saying, “There is no Ken without Barbie, and there is no Barbie movie without Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie, the two people most responsible for this history-making, globally-celebrated film. No recognition would be possible for anyone on the film without their talent, grit and genius.”
As expected, “Oppenheimer,” a cinematic tale of the development of the atom bomb during World War II, led with 13 nominations. “Poor Things,” a feminist fantasy starring Emma Stone, followed with 11 nods from the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. “Killers of the Flower Moon,” drawn from real-world 1920s Oklahoma and a conspiracy to rob the Osage Nation of its oil wealth, received 10 nominations. The full list is HERE.
Hollywood will award the Oscars March 10 at the Dolby Theatre, with Jimmy Kimmel as host of the ABC broadcast.
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