Morning Report — Border deal and Ukraine aid hang in the balance

by Kristina Karisch - 12/19/23 6:30 AM ET

The Capitol Dome is seen as lawmakers prepare to depart for the holiday recess, at the Capitol in Washington, Thursday, Dec. 14, 2023. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

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Senators are still in Washington, but there’s no end-of-the-year border deal in sight.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) had tentatively scheduled a vote on the package this week, but Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), the lead Republican negotiator, told reporters Monday that he doesn’t expect White House and Senate negotiators to reach an agreement in the next few days given the unresolved issues still on the table. While Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said Monday he was “encouraged” by ongoing negotiations, a “significant number” of issues still need to be worked through before brokering a deal on President Biden’s aid package for Ukraine and Israel (ABC News). 

“We’re clearly not going to have text complete this week to be able to have a vote to be able to pull this stuff together. We’ll keep working until we get it done,” Lankford said Monday. “We’re all going to be back in January on this, but it’s going to take a while to be able to finish up all the text.” 

THE TALKS HAVE RECEIVED PUSHBACK from conservative Republicans and Latino Democrats, The Hill’s Alexander Bolton and Al Weaver report, who have raised the alarm about the lack of transparency in the talks and the possibility that party leaders would try to jam a deal through the Senate with little review right before the holiday recess. Schumer nonetheless tried to sound as optimistic as possible Monday, touting what he called the “significant progress” negotiators made over the weekend.  

“I urge them to keep going,” he said, advising senators that they will vote on 11 senior military promotions this week while the border security negotiations “continue off the floor.”  

In the interim, the White House plans to announce one more package of military aid to Ukraine this month, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters on Monday. But after that, funding for Ukraine will dry up (Politico).

▪ NBC News: Democrats seek to restrain new immigration powers, fearing abuse by former President Trump. The former president and other immigration hardliners eyeing the White House are on the minds of senators as they negotiate new asylum restrictions and border security measures.

▪ Vox: What happens in Ukraine if U.S. aid disappears?

3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY:

▪ Former Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O’Connor’s funeral will be held today at Washington National Cathedral. O’Connor, who died on Dec. 1 aged 93, was honored with a ceremony at the highest court on Monday.

▪ Pope Francis formally permitted Roman Catholic priests to bless same-sex couples on Monday, in a significant shift in the church’s approach to LGBTQ+ members.

▪ Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) on Monday escalated his challenge of Biden’s border policies by signing a measure that allows state law enforcement officials to arrest migrants who enter Texas from Mexico without legal authorization. The move sets the stage for a showdown with the federal government.

BIDEN IS TAKING HITS ON MULTIPLE ISSUES from within his own party, with Democrats bashing the president for recent policy choices. The Hill’s Alex Gangitano reports the criticisms are largely coming from progressives and the left flank of the Democratic party and have concerned immigration, foreign policy and the environment. They come as the president heads into a reelection year and has been struggling to raise his approval rating and enthusiasm among Democrats in a possible rematch against Trump. 

Rep. Nanette Barragán (D-Calif.), the chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, called it “unacceptable” for the White House to be working on an immigration deal without its members at the table. Many have publicly balked at the possibility that the White House would give significant ground to Republicans by agreeing to expand executive power to expel migrants.

“A return to Trump-era policies is not the fix,” said Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.). “In fact, it will make the problem worse.”

Padilla even pulled Biden aside at a recent fundraiser in California to warn him “to be careful” of being dragged into “harmful policy” (The Associated Press).

▪ Roll Call: “A colossal waste of time”: Frustrations rise over use of privileged resolutions in the House.

▪ The Hill: House Oversight Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) pushed back on reporting characterizing one of his business ventures as a shell company, defending the legitimacy of a business structure he said was designed to insulate his farm from lawsuits. 

LEADING THE DAY

POLITICS

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is seeing clear signs of momentum as the best alternative to Trump in the early voting state of New Hampshire. A recent poll from CBS News and YouGov shows Haley narrowing the gap against Trump in the Granite State, with the former president at 44 percent support, while Haley sits at 29 percent.  But Republicans acknowledge Haley still faces an uphill climb to consolidate support as the Trump alternative with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie both still in the race (The Hill). 

Internal turmoil is threatening to torpedo DeSantis’s already struggling presidential campaign as he heads toward a make-or-break moment in next month’s Iowa caucuses. Over the weekend, a Washington Post report detailed chaos within DeSantis’s super PAC, Never Back Down. Hours later, a top strategist left the operation — just four weeks before voting kicks off in Iowa with what might be the most critical contest for the Florida governor. A complaint filed Monday by the nonprofit watchdog Campaign Legal Center also alleges DeSantis “illegally coordinated” with the super PAC and that Never Back Down went against an “explicit legal requirement that super PACs must remain ‘independent.’” 

These developments add to a string of setbacks and shake-ups for DeSantis’s campaign as he struggles to hold on to second place in the Republican presidential field (The Hill).

“When things go badly in a campaign, the wheels tend to come off,” said Republican strategist Alex Conant. “There’s a lot of finger-pointing, there’s a lot of blame, and it inevitably spills out into the public and just compounds the problems.”

NBC News: Who will get a ticket punched out of Iowa? Here’s what each GOP candidate has to do.

© The Associated Press / Godofredo A. Vásquez | Former President Trump during a Sunday campaign rally in Reno, Nev.

TRUMP IS ESCALATING his rhetoric around immigration with less than a month to go before the Iowa caucuses. Trump in separate events over the weekend claimed migrants were “poisoning the blood of our country” and posed an increased terrorism risk, and he equated the influx of migrants at the southern border to an “invasion.” The Hill’s Brett Samuels reports the comments echoed what Trump has said in the past, as the former president has routinely deployed anti-immigrant rhetoric and sought to crack down on the number of migrants entering the country while he was president. It reflects how Trump sees immigration as a polarizing issue that could work in his favor in a general election, even as critics drew comparisons to Adolf Hitler.

Christie called the former president’s comments “disgusting” and condemned other Republicans for failing to more forcefully push back against Trump.

“I think they make excuses for him,” Christie said on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “I have interacted with voters who are supporting Donald Trump. And they acknowledge to me: Yes. No, that’s a terrible thing to say. Yes, I don’t like that. But, you know, he’s under a lot of pressure. You know, he’s just a straight-talking guy. He says what he really feels and believes, and, sometimes, he goes overboard. So I think it’s despite that.”

2024 ROUNDUP:

▪ Senate Republicans on Monday recoiled at Trump’s comments about immigrants.

▪ The alarming calm of the Biden campaign. Inside reelection HQ, the president’s aides feel confident that the 2024 race is totally under control.

▪ If elected for a second term, Trump would likely install loyalists in key positions in the Pentagon, State Department and CIA whose primary allegiance would be to him, allowing him more freedom than in his first presidency to enact isolationist policies and whims.

▪ More than half of voters feel worse off under Biden, according to a new poll released Monday. 

▪ Conservatives are testing new tactics to keep abortion off the ballot following a series of high-profile defeats. Several anti-abortion groups are buying TV and digital ads, knocking on doors and holding events to persuade people against signing petitions to put the issue before voters in November.

▪ This is a historian’s advice to the Democrats trying to build stuff: A government hoping to march forward on economic objectives under the belief it can circle back later to tackle social problems should expect to find those social problems in much worse shape.

WHERE AND WHEN

🎄 A holiday note to readers: Morning Report’s Alexis Simendinger will return to your inboxes Jan. 3. 

The House will meet for a pro forma session at 2 p.m. 

The Senate will convene at 11 a.m.

The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 8:30 a.m., after which he will travel back to Washington from Delaware. He will attend and speak at the memorial for former Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O’Connor at Washington National Cathedral at 11 a.m. At 5 p.m., Biden will attend a campaign reception in Bethesda, Md.

Vice President Harris will host a 3:30 p.m. press call with Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Michael Regan. At 10 p.m., she will appear on MSNBC’s “The Last Word with Lawrence O’Donnell” in a pre-taped interview.

The White House press briefing is scheduled for 1:30 p.m., and will feature National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby.

ZOOM IN

© The Associated Press / Maya Alleruzzo | Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met with Israeli officials in Tel Aviv on Monday.

MIDDLE EAST

The Biden administration is growing increasingly critical of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s handling of the war against Hamas, which has led to thousands of Palestinian deaths and growing anger within the Democratic Party. The Hill’s Laura Kelly reports Biden has acted as a shield for Israel against international condemnation and calls for a ceasefire, but there is a growing disconnect between Netanyahu’s wartime bluster and concerns being aired by Biden and his Cabinet.

Among the key points of public disagreement between the allies is the intensity of Israel’s military campaign in southern Gaza, and the potential role of the Palestinian Authority in governing postwar Gaza. 

“My experience in Republican and Democratic administrations leads to the following axiom: American presidents do not like to fight openly with Israeli prime ministers,” said Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “When they do fight, the fight is focused in a very directed manner, in achieving something positive.”

Politico: Former Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid is trying to shore up support for Israel on the American center-left. But the wartime politics of both countries isn’t making it easy.

PRESSURE IS MOUNTING ON ISRAEL to begin bringing the war in Gaza to a close, as Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met with military officials Monday to relay Biden administration concerns over the heavy death toll for Palestinian civilians. The United Nations Security Council is also gearing up for yet another vote this week on a resolution calling for an immediate cease-fire. Austin arrived in Israel on Monday, meeting in Tel Aviv with his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant. Austin said U.S. support for Israel is unshakeable (Reuters and NPR).

Israel, he said, “has every right to defend itself,” adding however that “protecting Palestinian civilians in Gaza is both a moral duty and a strategic imperative.”

▪ The Hill: What to know about the new U.S. maritime task force to combat the Houthi threat in the Red Sea.

▪ The Wall Street Journal: The Suez Canal is becoming a new front in the Israel-Hamas war.

▪ The Associated Press: Houthi attacks on commercial ships have upended global trade in a vital Red Sea corridor.

ELSEWHERE

© The Associated Press / Alex Brandon | Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Dec. 13.

ECONOMY

After two years of relentless pressure over everything from skyrocketing inflation to a looming recession, Jerome Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve, was asked this month what he does for fun. “For me, a big, big party — and I mean, this is really as fun as it gets — is a really good inflation report,” he told a crowd at Spelman College, and laughed.

As the year ends, Powell and his colleagues are far from declaring victory on inflation, often cautioning that their actions to prevent a recession could be threatened by any number of global events. The cost of rent, groceries and other basics still remains high, and prices aren’t going back to pre-pandemic levels. Yet the economy is ending the year in a remarkably better position than almost anyone on Wall Street or in mainstream economics had predicted. Inflation has dropped to 3.1 percent, from a peak of 9.1. The unemployment rate is at a hot 3.7 percent. The Fed is probably done hiking interest rates and is eyeing cuts next year. The Washington Post details how the Fed and the White House dealt with the threat of a recession — and found a way out.

▪ Vox: So it’s come to this: We might have to worry about the deficit. America rarely has its financial ducks in a row. Does it finally matter?

▪ NPR: Inflation has cooled a lot. So why do things still feel so expensive?

▪ The Wall Street Journal: The era of big taxes is upon us.

OPINION

■ We have failed in the fight for justice — we need a cease-fire in Gaza now, by Rev. Nontombi Naomi Tutu and Nompumelelo (Mungi) Ngomane, daughter and granddaughter, respectively, of Archbishop Emeritus Desmond Tutu, opinion contributors, The Hill.

■ No Labels is pushing a lie that will elect Trump, by Jim Messina, contributor, Politico.

THE CLOSER

And finally … 🚗 Members of the House may have already gotten out of Washington over the weekend, but the holiday travel season is still awaiting most of us. Millions of Americans are gearing up to take planes, trains and automobiles to their holiday destinations this week, and it’s looking to be a busy one.

AAA predicts the 2023 holiday season will be the busiest ever for air travel, with 7.5 million people projected to fly from Saturday, Dec. 23, to Monday, Jan. 1. This would break the record high of 7.3 million flyers set in 2019. This Thursday and Friday are forecast to be the busiest days for departures, according to Hopper, and domestic airfares are averaging $349 round trip — a 3 percent increase from last year. Here’s a breakdown of all things holiday travel this year.

And for those embarking on long trips, here’s a list of the 20+ best holiday travel essentials that a health editor about to fly 25,000 miles won’t leave home without.

✈️ There’s some good news for Southwest Airlines passengers affected during the airline’s operational meltdown during the 2022 holiday travel season. The airline has been handed a record $140 million fine, the Department of Transportation announced Monday.

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