Morning Report — Haley captures momentum, but can she catch Trump?

by Alexis Simendinger and Kristina Karisch - 11/30/23 6:30 AM ET

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In politics, it’s never too early to leap ahead, which is why chatter about a GOP presidential running mate persists seven months before such a pairing is official.

If former President Trump is the GOP nominee, Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), an ally, opined Wednesday that Trump could broaden the reach of the Republican ticket by choosing Nikki Haley as his running mate. 

“If I was picking for purely political decisions, what it looks like today is the anti-Trump vote is going to Nikki Haley,” McCarthy said during a New York Times DealBook interview. 

“I don’t run for second,” Haley said in August.

History suggests presidential running mates attract voters only around the margins but can weaken presidential tickets in unusual circumstances. GOP nominee Sen. John McCain of Arizona lost an estimated 2 million votes with untested, little-known Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his VP choice. Vice President Harris is described even among some loyal Democrats as a weak link in a 2024 contest in which President Biden’s age is flagged by voters as a worry and a hurdle for reelection.

The Hill: McCarthy suggests Biden showed his age during their debt ceiling negotiations. Harris’s rejoinder when asked about the comments by the ousted former Speaker: “I don’t think he’s a judge of negotiations.”  

Although Haley trails the 77-year-old Trump in polls, she has gained ground on the GOP front-runner. She has gained favorable reviews in debates and attracted endorsements along with campaign cash. 

THE FORMER SOUTH CAROLINA governor, who served as Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations, has been pooh-poohing suggestions she covets a VP nod stretching back to 2012 when she tried to help then-GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney. “I’m not going to be a running mate,” she told South Carolinians at the time. Romney challenged former President Obama and former Vice President Biden, accompanied by his running mate, Paul Ryan, then a wonky, fiscally conservative House Budget Committee chair from Wisconsin. 

ABC News: Who might Trump select as his vice president?

Having served in Trump’s administration, Haley had a close-up view of the former president’s antipathy toward critics, including women. He recently used social media and a nickname for Haley to say, “Birdbrain doesn’t have the TALENT or TEMPERAMENT to do the job.” His campaign sent her a bird cage and bird food to rub it in, she revealed last month, describing the prank as “#prettypathetic.”

Last month in Nevada, Haley bashed Trump’s embrace of international strongmen and said he stirs up “chaos, vendettas and drama.” Haley is all-too familiar with former Vice President Mike Pence’s rupture with Trump over the former president’s loss to Biden and she praised Pence for his certification of the Electoral College tally.

The Hill’s Julia Manchester reports that skepticism remains about Haley’s odds of beating Trump in the primary, despite her upward momentum and the aspirations of Trump’s detractors, including some major GOP donors, who’d prefer to see him defeated. 

“The donors and the grassroots are not seeing the playing field the same way,” said Republican strategist Ford O’Connell. 

CNBC: JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon urged business leaders Wednesday to “help” Haley’s campaign. “Even if you’re a very liberal Democrat, I urge you, help Nikki Haley, too. Get a choice on the Republican side that might be better than Trump,” Dimon said. 

3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY:

▪ Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, who shaped America’s Cold War history as an international adviser to 12 presidents and was both praised and reviled for the power he wielded in the post-World War II era, died Wednesday at age 100. 

▪ The Biden administration is proposing new restrictions that would require the removal of virtually all lead water pipes across the country in an effort to prevent another public health catastrophe like the one that came to define Flint, Mich.

▪ Gross domestic product in the third quarter was revised upward to 5.2 percent year over year, outpacing expectations Wednesday. Corporate profits were up, too, the Commerce Department reported. (“Strong” and “resilient” are still analysts’ adjectives). 

🎤 TONIGHT’S PRIME-TIME DEBATE between Govs. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) and Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.) will be a higher-risk event for the 2024 GOP presidential candidate than the potential future White House aspirant who is term-limited in a state large enough to be a country. DeSantis, who trails Trump and chases Haley, according to polls, needs a breakout performance to reset his political fortunes. Newsom, who has sparred with DeSantis all year, is seen as an adroit communicator who relishes the spotlight. 

And let’s not forget Fox News personality Sean Hannity, the conservative moderator who dreamed up tonight’s 90 minutes of political theater (but without a studio audience) between the big-state governors. Here’s how to watch.

LEADING THE DAY

© The Associated Press / Mariam Zuhaib | Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.), pictured in October, says he expects the House to vote to expel him from Congress Thursday. 

CONGRESS

The House is on track to vote Friday on whether to expel embattled Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.). Colleagues have urged the freshman member to resign; he has refused and insists he will only leave if voted out. Santos has already survived two expulsion votes this year — in May and in November — but the current push to oust him poses the greatest threat to his congressional tenure after a handful of lawmakers who protected him in the past now say they will vote to boot him after the House Ethics Committee released a damning report on the New York Republican.

The bipartisan panel found that Santos “violated federal criminal laws” and that he used campaign funds for trips to Atlantic City and Las Vegas, on Botox, at the luxury brand Hermès, and for purchases from OnlyFans, a subscription platform that is largely used for adult content. Nearly 90 House Republicans say they plan or are likely to support voting to expel Santos from Congress, which means it’s a near-certainty the indicted lawmaker will be out this week (Politico).

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) says he has “real reservations” about voting to oust Santos but told colleagues to vote their conscience (The Hill and The Guardian). 

“What we’ve said as the leadership team is we’re gonna allow people to vote their conscience, I think, is the only appropriate thing we can do,” Johnson said at a press conference. “We’ve not whipped the vote, and we wouldn’t. I trust that people will make that decision thoughtfully and in good faith.”

While dozens of Democratic lawmakers voted against the effort to expel Santos earlier this month, those same lawmakers are now lining up to support Santos’s ouster when a similar resolution hits the floor later this week. Some are predicting the Democratic vote to expel Santos will be unanimous (The Hill). 

“I would assume everybody at this point,” said Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), who had also voted to keep Santos in office earlier this month. 

▪ Axios: Multiple GOP lawmakers expect McCarthy to step down from his seat before the end of the year.

▪ Politico: The right’s ire toward Johnson isn’t universal. But it’s growing: One member called him a “joke,” and another deemed his performance “plummeting.”

IMPEACHMENT MOVES: House Republicans are preparing to vote on formalizing their impeachment inquiry into Biden in the coming weeks, Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) told GOP lawmakers Wednesday. Emmer spoke to House Republicans in a closed-door meeting as they near the end of their months-long probe of the president’s connections to his son Hunter’s overseas business dealings. So far, the investigation has failed to yield any tangible proof that Hunter Biden influenced his father’s decisions as president or vice president. 

The Republican-led House Oversight Committee on Tuesday rebuffed an offer by Hunter Biden to testify publicly in response to a subpoena for a closed-door deposition (Politico and Bloomberg News).

THE ANNUAL BLUEPRINT FOR DEFENSE, which has passed every year on time for the past 62 straight years, now faces serious hurdles that threaten to delay the legislation until 2024 along with the annual spending bills. Democrats say that House Financial Services Chairman Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) is holding up the authorization measure to add his market structuring legislation to help the cryptocurrency industry. Meanwhile, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) says he will drag out debate unless the legislation includes compensation for victims of defense-related radiation contamination in Missouri. 

And then, as The Hill’s Alexander Bolton reports, there’s also the political landmine of the Pentagon’s abortion policy. The House bill would force the Defense Department to drop its policy to provide travel expense reimbursement to service members to access abortion services — but that’s a guaranteed non-starter with Senate Democrats and Biden. 

That same abortion policy is the source of Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s (R-Ala.) nine-month hold on military promotions. But The Hill’s Al Weaver writes the Alabama Senator told his Republican colleagues Tuesday that he will figure a way out of the situation before they have to take a tough vote on a resolution that would effectively force them to choose between pro-lifers and the military. Tuberville’s comments were the first indication that he will end his hold before a resolution hits the floor that would greenlight more than 350 military promotions. However, questions remain over how Tuberville plans to do that, leaving members in limbo until he does (Politico).

WHERE AND WHEN

The House meets at 10 a.m.

The Senate convenes at 10 a.m. 

The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 10 a.m. Biden will host a bilateral meeting with President João Manuel Gonçalves Lourenço of Angola in the Oval Office at 2:30 p.m. The president and first lady Jill Biden will participate in the lighting of the national Christmas tree on the Ellipse at 6 p.m.

The vice president will meet with her staff. 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Israel where he met Thursday morning with President Isaac Herzog in Tel Aviv and will meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel’s war cabinet.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will travel to Bessemer City, N.C., to tour Livent and Gaston College and speak at 11:30 a.m. about recent investments in Inflation Reduction Act-related sectors of the economy, including clean vehicles and critical minerals. North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) will attend.

Economic indicators: The Labor Department at 8:30 a.m. will report on claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ending Nov. 25, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis at 8:30 a.m. will report on October’s personal income and outlays.

The White House daily press briefing is scheduled at 1 p.m.

ZOOM IN

© The Associated Press / Andrew Harnik | President Biden toured CS Wind, the largest wind tower manufacturer in the world, in Pueblo, Colo., on Wednesday.

MORE POLITICS

BIDEN VS. BOEBERT: Biden went to GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert’s Colorado district on Wednesday to contrast his economic agenda with the policies from so-called MAGA Republicans. Biden traveled to Pueblo to visit CS Wind, the largest wind tower manufacturer in the world, which is expanding operations and creating hundreds of jobs, which the president argued is a result of his signature Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The president called Boebert “one of the leaders of this extreme MAGA movement” and gave himself the sign of the cross when he first mentioned her during the speech, noting she voted against the IRA.

“She called this law a massive failure,” Biden said. “Do you all know you’re part of a massive failure? Tell that to the 850 Coloradans who are getting new jobs in Pueblo at CS Winds thanks to this law. Tell that to the local economy who’s going to benefit from these investments. Tell that to anyone who wants to listen.”

The Hill’s Alex Gangitano and Brett Samuels report the trip marked a rare instance of Biden directly targeting a Republican member of Congress, and one who nearly lost her seat in the 2022 midterms. It is the type of stop Biden is likely to make more frequently as the campaign season heats up in 2024. 

The Washington Post analysis: MAGA celebrity comes at a political cost, and evidence is growing. Biden is trying to tie the GOP to Boebert, who embodies the perverse political incentives in the modern Republican Party.

2024 ROUNDUP:

▪ Could abortion rights rescue red-state Democrats in the Senate? Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) is betting that the issue will aid his re-election bid in Ohio, which recently upheld abortion rights. Allies of Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) are also hoping it helps.

▪ Elon Musk, who recently met in Israel with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, turned efforts to smooth a geopolitical uproar over his perceived antisemitic commentary into an opening. The meeting helped snag a new deal that secured Israel’s control over Musk’s SpaceX Starlink satellites across Israel and Gaza. 

▪ Fear among college students rose last weekend after a gunman shot and seriously injured three students of Palestinian descent in Vermont, two of whom were wearing keffiyehs. The state is weighing possible prosecution under hate crime laws, focusing heightened attention on potential consequences of Islamophobia.

▪ The Education Department opened a federal civil rights investigation into allegations of antisemitism at Harvard University. 

MIDDLE EAST

The temporary truce between Israel and Hamas, in place since Friday, has been extended another day as hostages continue to be released from Gaza in exchange for Palestinian freed from Israeli prisons. Humanitarian supplies and fuel continue to be trucked into Gaza.

Today, Hamas is expected to release eight hostages and hand over the bodies of three Israelis whose identities are unknown. Hamas said they were killed during Israel’s offensive in Gaza.

On Wednesday, Hamas released 12 women and teens, along with four Thai citizens. Israeli American hostage Liat Beinin Atzili, 49, was among those released, an event praised by Biden.

Blinken arrived in Tel Aviv today where he met with President Herzog, expressing cautious optimism that the pause in the war can continue. The secretary also is scheduled to visit the West Bank during his trip. 

In Jerusalem, Blinken began meeting today with Netanyahu, according to a U.S. official. Blinken is scheduled today to meet with Israel’s war cabinet and separately with opposition leader Yair Lapid, Defence Minister Yoav Gallant and minister Benny Gantz, Reuters reports.

There has been no emerging consensus about how to bring the war to an end, rebuild Gaza and deal with its displaced population. There is no accord among Israel, the U.S. and Arab nations about governing Gaza in place of Hamas, or an authority that would safeguard the territory’s two million people after the war.

Officials in Israel and the U.S. are discussing Israel’s aim to destroy Hamas’s military capabilities and prevent future attacks launched from Gaza, including the idea of expelling thousands of lower-level militants from the Palestinian enclave as a way to shorten the war, The Wall Street Journal reports.

The concept is reminiscent of the U.S.-brokered deal that allowed Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat and thousands of fighters to flee Beirut during Israel’s 1982 siege of the Lebanese capital, according to the Journal. 

One proposal for how to govern a post-Hamas Gaza, developed by the Israeli military’s think tank and viewed by the Journal, would start with the creation of what it calls “Hamas-free safe zones” that would be ruled by a new Gaza authority backed by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Meanwhile on Wednesday, the USS Carney warship in the southern Red Sea shot down an unmanned drone launched from Yemen, a repeat of threats from Iranian-backed Houthi rebels.

ELSEWHERE

SUPREME COURT

The Supreme Court heard wide-ranging arguments on Wednesday in a challenge to the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) powers to combat fraud. One of several attacks being waged by conservative and business interests against the administrative state, the case has major implications for the SEC and other agencies that enforce regulatory schemes through in-house adjudication. The Hill’s Zach Schonfeld reports the justices are reviewing a ruling that tossed civil penalties imposed against conservative radio host George Jarkesy, who was found to have violated securities laws while managing two hedge funds. 

On three separate constitutional grounds, the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals dated the SEC’s use of in-house administrative law judges to enforce securities laws — a ruling that could broadly restrict the authority of federal agencies. The court’s conservative justices seemed highly skeptical Wednesday about the way the SEC conducts in-house enforcement proceedings to ensure the integrity of securities markets across the country. The case is one of several this term aimed at dismantling what some conservatives have derisively called, “the administrative state” (NPR).

© The Associated Press / Jeff Chiu | Vice President Harris, pictured in San Francisco this month at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, will represent the U.S. at COP28 this week in Dubai.

CLIMATE

This week world leaders, climate negotiators, activists, corporations and lobbyists will gather in Dubai for the COP28 global climate summit. The annual United Nations climate summits serve as forums for nations to highlight progress and make announcements in the global fight against climate change. They are also the stage for formal global negotiations for global agreements on key climate issues. The Hill’s Rachel Frazin breaks down six key issues to watch at this year’s summit, from methane to triple renewables, and fossil fuels to climate aid.

The summit is a critical test of whether the global community is willing to slash planet-warming emissions enough to meet Paris Agreement targets. The world is currently on course to sail past those benchmarks, yielding a potentially catastrophic amount of warming of about 5.4°F compared with preindustrial levels. While renewables like solar and wind are surging in the U.S., Europe and China, oil and gas companies are showing few signs of cutting production and turning their attention and windfall profits to low-carbon ventures (Axios).

The vice president will participate in the climate summit in the United Arab Emirates this week after the White House announced Biden, who has attended for the past two years, would not be making the trip. Addressing climate change was a key part of Biden’s campaign platform in 2020, and he said it remains a top priority in office (NPR).

OPINION

■ Biden, Trump and ObamaCare: Democrats distort the issue but the GOP offers no alternative, by The Wall Street Journal editorial board. 

■ Has No Labels become a stalking horse for Trump? by Thomas B. Edsall, guest essayist, The New York Times.

THE CLOSER

© The Associated Press / Michael Dwyer | OpenAI’s logo is pictured on a mobile phone in front of a display from ChatGPT in Boston in March.

Take Our Morning Report Quiz

And finally … 🧠 It’s Thursday, which means it’s time for this week’s Morning Report Quiz! We were tempted to ask artificial intelligence to come up with a puzzle but we used our little gray cells, per usual, mining this week’s headlines about AI. 

Be sure to email your responses to asimendinger@digital-stage.thehill.com and kkarisch@digital-stage.thehill.com — please add “Quiz” to your subject line. Winners who submit correct answers will enjoy some richly deserved newsletter fame on Friday.

Which media company this week blamed an outside contractor after a damaging discovery that it published content using computer-invented bylines with computer-created headshots, even as it refuted that some articles were AI-generated?

The New Yorker

Rolling Stone

Sports Illustrated

Cooks Illustrated

Which tech company on Tuesday introduced an AI subscription product, which was said by executives to be named after a character in James Bond films?

Meta

Google

Amazon

ByteDance

Generative AI is changing medicine, inching closer to patient diagnoses, a news outlet summarized on Wednesday. AI in medicine has been tapped to ______.

Sift through research studies

Bolster clinicians’ record keeping

Speed the drug discovery process

All of the above

The governor of which state this week is taking aim at political advertising ahead of the 2024 elections by vowing to sign legislation intended to curb deceptive uses of AI and manipulated media (deepfakes)?