Morning Report — No clear path toward the gavel

House Republicans will try again this morning to settle on a Speaker nominee, anticipating another round of voting in what has become a weeks-long battle to steer the leaderless chamber.  

Conference members heard from the eight candidates during a closed-door meeting Monday evening, and they will begin their internal elections at 9 a.m. today — exactly three weeks after former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s (R-Calif.) ouster. As The Hill’s Emily Brooks reports, House GOP conference rules dictate that all contested elections are decided by a secret ballot, and that no proxy voting is allowed. A candidate must win a majority of all votes cast in the internal election — and if no member receives a majority, the lowest vote-getter is dropped from consideration. 

“This procedure repeats until a member receives a majority of all votes cast,” said an October 2023 leadership candidate election guide shared with The Hill. That means if the Speaker election goes multiple rounds without a clear leader, it could take hours for the conference to reach a majority winner. 

Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) is widely seen as a favorite, though it is far from clear that he — or anyone in the conference — could secure the votes needed to win the gavel on the House floor after the chaos of the last few weeks. 

Nine speaker candidates made their pitches to fellow Republicans at a closed-door forum Monday, and answered questions about how they would handle the job, which has become a flashpoint for factional strife within the party. The field quickly dropped to eight when one of the candidates, Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Pa.), used his presentation to announce he was withdrawing. He told reporters it was time for the party to get its act together (The Guardian). 

“People are angry, people are frustrated, people are blaming us for the dysfunction, and they are kind of right,” Meuser said. “So we need to respond. We need to get this done.” 

Senior-most among the hopefuls is Emmer, but neither he or the other lower-level Republican lawmakers are expected to quickly secure a majority. Instead he and others are reaching out to former President Trump for backing ahead of elections to choose a nominee. Trump downplayed, even derided, Emmer, with whom he has had a rocky relationship, while presenting himself as a kingmaker who talks to “a lot of congressmen” seeking his stamp of approval (The Associated Press). 

“There’s only one person who can do it all the way: Jesus Christ,” Trump declared. 

The Washington Post reports that behind the scenes, the former president personally directed his allies to hammer Emmer. Emmer’s shortcomings, according to people close to Trump, include voting to certify the 2020 election and failing to endorse the former president, both privately and publicly. 

Axios: Breaking down the top contenders in the GOP speaker race. 

IN THIS MORNING’S BACKROOM MEETING, only a majority is needed to win the nomination, writes The Hill’s Mychael Schnell. But whoever emerges from that internal election will need near-unanimous support from the conference on the floor — a herculean task that the GOP’s two previous nominees fell short of accomplishing. The nominee can afford to lose just four Republican votes on the floor and still win the gavel. 

“Getting 217 is obviously going to be very difficult and is the sort of Rubik’s Cube of the answer to all of this,” Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio), the chair of the House Intelligence Committee, said Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union.” 

HANGING OVER THE SPEAKER’S RACE is the possibility of a government shutdown in November if Congress doesn’t pass its appropriations bills by the time the temporary spending patch runs out in 24 days (Politico). Add to that the White House’s $106 billion national security supplemental request to Congress — providing aid to Israel and Ukraine, as well as border funding — which faces an uncertain legislative future amid ongoing turmoil in the House and interest among some Republicans in breaking the package into stand-alone pieces.  

Congress has yet to pass any of the 12 detailed spending bills that fund government operations for the fiscal year that started on Oct. 1. Republicans have passed four of those bills out of the House, but they differ significantly from bipartisan legislation being developed in the Senate (Reuters). That chamber is dealing with appropriations difficulties of its own, as Senate leadership works to resolve holds on the chamber’s three-bill spending “minibus,” only for more issues to appear in their place (Roll Call). 

Bottom line: The standstill in the House is likely to extend beyond today, and lawmakers are running out of time to find a leader — and stop the government from grinding to a halt.  

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LEADING THE DAY 

MIDDLE EAST 

Israel airstrikes in Gaza are continuing today, with grisly reports of bombardment near hospitals and skin-melting wounds turning up among the Palestinian injured seeking medical help.  

French President Emmanuel Macron flew into Israel seeking the release of hostages during discussions with President Isaac Herzog and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He also is expected to meet in Ramallah with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. 

Four hostages out of more than 200 have been released from Gaza by Hamas since Friday (including two elderly Israeli women on Monday). But Hamas has not freed an estimated 600 Americans who are stuck in Gaza and have been waiting for days to pass through the Rafah gate into Egypt. It has forced the U.S. to work through intermediaries. 

A TRICKLE OF FOOD, medicine, coffins and other humanitarian supplies have been allowed by Egypt and Israel into Gaza under the aegis of U.N. security checks and have reached some distribution points for Palestinian relief. However, Israel will not let fuel enter Gaza for fear Hamas will use it to wage war. Without fuel, desalination plants will run out of potable water and hospitals will run out of generator power this week to care for the sick, wounded and dying. 

At every turn, the Israeli-Hamas war is filled with life and death contradictions, competing advice and emotions and internecine communications. 

ISRAEL CONTINUES TO BOMBARD GAZA with deadly airstrikes, but it has paused before beginning a ground war. Israel has been encouraged by the United States and European allies to hone plans and strategy, leave time for negotiators to secure the release of multinational hostages and to soften criticism that Israel is intent on murdering Palestinian civilians, including children, who are not Hamas. 

But the U.S. has not joined the U.N., the European Union, Pope Francis and global allies in urging a cease-fire. Biden hinted that getting hostages out may be part of a staggered process, the ultimate aim of which is to diminish chances of a full-fledged regional war involving Iran, which backs Hamas and the more powerful terrorist group Hezbollah in Lebanon. 

President Biden, speaking during a White House technology event Monday, responded to a question about a proposed cease-fire, saying, “We should have those hostages released, and then we can talk.” 

The Pentagon dispatched Marine Corps Lt. Gen. James Glynn and other military officers to Israel to advise and share information ahead of the country’s promised ground offensive into Gaza, Axios reported. Glynn previously headed the Marines’ special operations and was involved in the operations against ISIS in Iraq. 

THE UNITED NATIONS SECURITY COUNCIL will hold a session today about the Israel-Gaza situation ahead of a planned meeting of the U.N. General Assembly on Thursday. After vetoing a U.N. resolution for humanitarian aid to Gaza last week, the United States drafted a new resolution that does not call for a ceasefire and states Israel has a right to defend itself. 

The resolution risks being blocked by Russia. Other members, including China and the United Arab Emirates, also support an immediate humanitarian cease-fire. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and asked Russia to veto the resolution backing Israel’s right to defend itself, Iran’s state media reported. Lavrov was quoted as saying that the “U.S. increasing its presence in the region threatens escalating tensions.” 

The International Committee of the Red Cross was the intermediary that took custody from Hamas on Monday of released Israeli hostages Nurit Cooper, 79, and Yocheved Lifshitz, 85. Both women were abducted during the Hamas-led assault on Kibbutz Nir Oz on Oct. 7, along with their husbands, who remain in Hamas custody, Israeli authorities said. The women were receiving medical attention in Israel and were reunited with some of their relatives. 

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ZOOM IN 

POLITICS & CAMPAIGNS 

IT’S A TIE: One year before the presidential election, Biden and Trump each hold 37 percent of the vote in a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll — with independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. costing Trump what would have been a narrow lead. 

Kennedy, a scion of the nation’s most famous Democratic family, won 13 percent of the vote in a hypothetical match-up, drawing voters who said they would otherwise support the former president and Republican front-runner. Progressive activist Cornel West, who also is waging an independent campaign, is at 4 percent; his supporters would break to Biden if he weren’t on the ballot. The poll’s findings emphasize the complicated arithmetic and unsettled politics of the likely rematch of the 2020 nominees. 

IN THE GOP PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s most recent campaign finance filings are raising questions about his strength in the primary as Trump appears to be solidifying his lead, The Hill’s Caroline Vakil reports. While DeSantis raised $15 million in the third quarter — outpacing that of his main non-Trump contenders — federal campaign filings showed that the Florida governor’s campaign spent nearly all of the money it had raised between July and September. Meanwhile, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has shown signs of traction with her fundraising, and she has more cash in hand. The latest filings have raised scrutiny over the Florida governor’s finances as he looks to maintain his place as the main alternative to Trump.  

But DeSantis’s campaign argues he’s in a strong position heading into the third GOP primary debate in Miami next month.  

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ELSEWHERE 

TRUMP WORLD 

FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP’S APPEAL of a gag order in his election interference case will put under a microscope limitations on his speech he sees as a danger to his candidacy, but legal experts say they stand a good chance of surviving, The Hill’s Rebecca Beitsch reports. Judge Tanya Chutkan agreed Friday to pause her order from taking effect while Trump seeks to topple it. Her directive would otherwise have barred the former president from speech that would “target” foreseeable witnesses, prosecutors in the case and court personnel. Legal experts say the risk of threats to those attacked by Trump underpin Chutkan’s rationale for the order and could protect it during appeal. 

“Given the showing the government made of specific threats as a result of Mr. Trump’s statements, it seems to me that an order of some kind is pretty clearly warranted. The only real question is, what does it mean when it says that he can’t make statements targeting these people?” asked Kevin Baine, a leading First Amendment attorney. “I think the Court of Appeals could well be troubled by the vagueness of the term ‘targeting.’” 

TRUMP’S EX-FIXER-TURNED-FOE MICHAEL COHEN — whose past revelations about Trump’s wealth prompted the New York probe of his finances — is expected to take to the stand this week in an ongoing civil trial that could see the two men come face-to-face for the first time since they became sworn enemies. Previously the Trump Organization’s longtime executive vice president and general counsel, Cohen is a star witness in New York Attorney General Letitia James’s (D) case. Trump is expected to attend Cohen’s testimony in person — extending visits he made the first few weeks of the trial he has deemed politically motivated (The Hill). 

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LABOR 

SAG-AFTRA AND THE HOLLYWOOD STUDIOS are set to return to the bargaining table today after labor and management broke off discussions on Oct. 11, when the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers said that the gap between both sides was “too great” to continue discussions. The union and entertainment companies had clashed, especially, over a revenue-sharing proposal from SAG-AFTRA on streaming (The Hollywood Reporter). Actors have been on strike for more than 100 days, and Duncan Crabtree-Ireland, the union’s chief negotiator, said Saturday’s milestone was a reminder of how little substantive negotiation has taken place since the strike began. 

“We all will reflect on the fact that it’s been such a long time and so many of those days have been spent out on the picket lines and not in the room negotiating with the companies,” he told Variety. Asked if he still thought it was possible for the strike to go into January, he said, “I certainly hope it won’t be that long. But it requires two parties to talk in order for us to move things forward.” 

THE UNITED AUTO WORKERS EXPANDED ITS STRIKE Monday, as 6,800 people stopped working at a plant that makes Ram 1500 trucks — one of Stellantis’s most important and profitable vehicles. The union took a similar step with its last walkout, when it shut down a Ford plant in Kentucky where several F-Series Super Duty pickups are made. 

The move comes days after UAW President Shawn Fain repeatedly criticized Stellantis, the company that makes Ram, Dodge and Chrysler vehicles. In a Facebook Live broadcast Friday, he said Stellantis “is trying to lowball and undercut us”  with contract proposals that were significantly weaker than those offered by Ford and General Motors, the other two big automakers (NBC News). 

The Hill: UAW’s confrontational leader is making gains in strike talks, but some wonder: Has he reached too far? 

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OPINION 

■ So much for the embargo on Iran’s missiles, by The Wall Street Journal editorial board. 

■ Outreach, not blame, can bring Black voters to the polls, by Svante Myrick, opinion contributor, The Hill. 

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THE CLOSER 

And finally … 🌚 We often speak of the new moon. How about the really old moon?  

Its surface formed at least 40 million years earlier than scientists had thought, according to a new examination of an ancient crystal embedded in rock collected by Apollo 17 astronauts. Scientists have (mostly) agreed on the basic gist of the moon’s origin story for years: About 4.5 billion years ago, a giant object called Theia slammed into the young Earth, ejecting hot debris that coalesced into our moon. But they have debated many of the details — particularly the timing. 

A new atom-by-atom analysis of a 4.46-billion-year-old lunar crystal alters the timeline of solidification by 40 million years, according to a study published Monday in the journal Geochemical Perspectives Letters. 

“It moves the goal post,” Jennika Greer, a cosmochemist at the University of Glasgow who worked on the study while a graduate student at the Field Museum and the University of Chicago, told The Washington Post. “It pushes back the minimum age of the moon formation.” 

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