Morning Report — Will Scalise or Jordan have the votes? 

by Alexis Simendinger and Kristina Karisch - 10/11/23 6:30 AM ET

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The stage is set for another Speakership showdown, and it could drag on for days or even weeks.

House Republicans will meet this morning aiming to nominate a new Speaker to take to the House floor, with the choice of two powerhouses in the GOP conference: Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) and Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio). The two men are generally well liked in the conference, but each would bring a distinctly different style to the top slot in the House, but both carry risks that are prompting hesitation among some lawmakers.

“They both have different strengths. They both bring unique attributes. Their policy differences are probably zero,” said Rep. August Pfluger (R-Texas), who is supporting Scalise.

 It’s shaping up to be a close race, opening the door to a wild-card third option if GOP members cannot coalesce around Jordan or Scalise — or an attempted resurrection of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). McCarthy, who was ousted as Speaker last week, did not shoot down the prospect of returning to the post if the conference is deadlocked. Several moderate members have indicated they may nominate and vote for him, further complicating the race (The Hill).

 A U-TURN: McCarthy, who announced shortly after his ouster that he would not seek the gavel again, changed course Monday when he opened the possibility of returning to the post. But on Tuesday, he cautioned members against nominating him as a candidate.  

The Washington Post analysis: McCarthy, Jordan and Scalise’s long history seeps into the Speaker fight.

During a Tuesday evening meeting, House Republicans heard from both Scalise and Jordan. Neither currently appear to have enough support to win the Speakership in a floor vote.

Many GOP lawmakers acknowledged that today’s internal vote could get messy, possibly requiring a series of ballots that may involve some member-on-member arm-twisting. The conference is also considering a proposal that would temporarily raise the threshold to nominate a Speaker to the number of votes needed to win on the House floor — a move meant to prevent internal disputes from playing out in the public eye — which is expected to be the first order of business for Republicans today (The Hill and Roll Call).

Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.), who voted to oust McCarthy, put it bluntly, telling Politico: “I’m not thrilled with either candidate.” He predicted that “a significant number … 15, 20, 30” people, would either cast present votes “in the first ballot, or be undecided.”

THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE HOUSE is unfolding amid a backdrop of war in Israel and a looming government shutdown once Congress’s stopgap spending bill runs out in November. During a Tuesday televised address about the attacks in Israel, President Biden announced that he will ask Congress “to take urgent action to fund the national security requirements of our critical partners” when the House and Senate return to legislative business.

“This is not about party or politics,” he said about funding for war efforts. “This is about the security of our world, security of the United States of America.”

▪ The Hill: Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are pushing to aid Israel after an unprecedented attack by Hamas, but the path is complicated as the House enters its second week without an elected Speaker. 

▪ CNN: Many in the House GOP caution against tying Israel and Ukraine aid together.

▪ Politico: The leaders of the House Foreign Affairs Committee introduced a resolution, backed by 390 of their House colleagues, expressing support for Israel in the aftermath of this weekend’s attacks.

The crisis in Israel coupled with the looming U.S. government funding deadline leave the White House and both parties in the Senate fretting about what happens if the Speaker drama extends past Wednesday.

“It’s a real concern,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), an ally of Senate GOP leadership, told The Hill. “It’s a clear indication that the eight Republicans who sided with the Democrats to oust [McCarthy] did not think it through. Instead of catching the bus so they could drive it, they ran it in a ditch and now expect the adults in the caucus to pull it out.”

3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY:

▪ Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky made a surprise appearance today at NATO headquarters in Brussels amid a meeting about Ukraine aid. His advice to leaders focused on the Middle East, drawn from personal experience: “Go to Israel and add their support.” NATO officials will hear Thursday from Israel’s defense minister, Yoav Gallant, in a video briefing.

▪ The Writers Guild of America West on Monday ended its five-month strike after members overwhelmingly voted for a new three-year contract deal. The Screen Actors Guild (SAG-AFTRA) continues to negotiate and will resume talks today.

▪ At least seven journalists since Saturday have been killed while reporting in the Gaza Strip.

LEADING THE DAY

© The Associated Press / Evan Vucci | President Biden, flanked by Vice President Harris and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, addressed the conflict in Israel during remarks on Tuesday.

Americans are among hostages held by Hamas, although the U.S. is unsure how many were abducted beginning Saturday during an attack on Israel that killed at least 14 U.S. citizens and left 1,000 Israelis dead as of Tuesday.

Biden, in remarks from the White House, made it clear that freeing captive Americans is top of mind for his administration, along with bolstering Israel’s security.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who spoke with Biden again Tuesday, is preparing a ground assault into Gaza to try to eradicate Hamas, an Islamic terrorist group that Biden described as “pure unadulterated evil,” and which vows to kill hostages if Israel strikes civilian structures in the Gaza Strip.

The Associated Press: Unprecedented Israeli bombardment lays waste to upscale Rimal, the beating heart of Gaza City. The Israeli military’s Arabic spokesperson said Israel was trying to “evacuate civilian populations from areas where Hamas has a military presence” before unleashing “powerful destruction.”

The carnage since Saturday amounts to the deadliest attack in Israel’s history, and the Hamas attack was cunningly planned. It happened on Netanyahu’s watch and it could be his final political chapter, regardless of the outcome of the war, according to leading experts interviewed by The New York Times. Many Israelis are calling it the worst massacre of Jews since the Holocaust.

GETTING FOREIGN HOSTAGES OUT OF GAZA ALIVE amid an Israeli bombardment against Hamas is considered difficult, at best, since the terror group has long been known for its use of civilian captives as human shields. Estimates are that Hamas has 100 to 150 hostages held in the densely populated Gaza Strip, including Israeli, French and even Thai citizens.

Biden, in remarks from the White House, made it clear that freeing captive Americans is top of mind for his administration, along with bolstering Israel’s security.

The administration says the whereabouts and conditions of 20 Americans are unknown; not all are assumed to be held by Hamas captors. The president vowed to use every intelligence asset available and is working with other nations. With the stakes rising, Biden said he wants U.S. military experts to consult and advise Israelis.

Haaretz: The first plane with U.S. ammunition arrived in Israel overnight on Tuesday.

“This is a time for the United States to come together,” Biden said Tuesday, describing as “sickening” the reports and video evidence of indiscriminate massacres of civilians, women, babies and the elderly by Hamas fighters.

THE PRESIDENT’S POLICIES AND LEADERSHIP are under domestic scrutiny following a deal he cut with Iran to free five American hostages last month. He agreed to issue a waiver for international banks to unblock $6 billion of Iran’s assets from South Korea to Qatar without fear of U.S. sanctions.

Republicans and some Democrats in Congress want to prevent Tehran from redeploying those funds, which are designated for humanitarian aid. They advise the administration to put the funds back on ice. The Biden administration insists none of the money has been spent, adding that if Iran had a hand in the Hamas attack on Israel, the evidence has not been seen. At the same time, officials concede that Iran has long bankrolled Hamas as well as Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Biden on Tuesday publicly warned Israel’s regional foes not to take advantage of the crisis. “Don’t,” he repeated.

▪ Reuters: Hezbollah, Hamas claim attacks on Israel from Lebanon. The violence, triggered by the war between Israel and Palestinian militants, marks the most serious escalation along the Lebanese-Israeli frontier since the 2006 conflict between Hezbollah and Israel.

▪ The Times of Israel: Israel is carrying out artillery strikes in Syria after mortar fire.  

▪ Pope Francis, in his public audience today in St. Peter’s Square at the Vatican, called for the immediate release of hostages held by Hamas in Gaza and expressed his concern for the Palestinians in the enclave. 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken heads today to the region “to engage our Israeli partner directly” regarding “how we can continue to best support them in their fight against the terrorists who launched these horrific attacks,” State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said. Blinken also will meet with officials in Jordan this week.

▪ The New Yorker: Israel may decimate Hamas, but can it “win” this war?

▪ The Hill: How Elon Musk’s X, formerly known as Twitter, is amplifying misinformation about Israel and Gaza. … CNN reports the European Union warned Musk there could be “penalties” for disinformation circulating on X amid the Israel-Hamas war. … The Associated Press explains the facts as falsehoods and disinformation spread.

WHERE AND WHEN

The House convenes at 3 p.m.

The Senate, which is out this week, holds a pro forma session at 9:15 a.m. on Friday. 

The president will speak at 11:45 a.m. in the Rose Garden about efforts to curb (or make transparent) “hidden junk” fees charged to consumers by various companies and enterprises. He will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 2 p.m.

Vice President Harris will travel to Charleston, S.C., and the College of Charleston to continue her “Fight for Our Freedoms” college tour, which is focused on mobilizing young people. She will make remarks at 1:40 p.m.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is in Marrakech, Morocco, where she is participating in annual gatherings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group. She held a press conference at 9 a.m. local time (4 a.m. ET), which was live streamed HERE. Her packed schedule includes an IMF roundtable focused on poverty reduction, and she has a bilateral meeting at 11 a.m. ET with Morocco’s minister of economy and finance, Nadia Fettah. Yellen also will participate in the World Bank’s Ukraine ministerial roundtable at 12:30 p.m. ET and deliver remarks.

First lady Jill Biden at 3 p.m. will mark International Day of the Girl by speaking during a “Girls Leading Change” celebration at the White House. She will address the Barbara Bush Foundation’s 2023 National Celebration of Reading event at the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington, D.C., at 6:30 p.m.

Economic indicator: The Bureau of Labor Statistics at 8:30 a.m. will release the Producer Price Index for September. 

The White House daily press briefing is scheduled at 1 p.m. and will include National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby.

ZOOM IN

POLITICS & CAMPAIGNS

Sen. Bob Menendez’s (D-N.J.) federal indictment on bribery charges opened a window into money in politics, say ethics experts. As The Hill’s Taylor Giorno reports, there’s new scrutiny about legal avenues for political influence and how “business as usual” in Washington erodes Americans’ trust. 

Politico: Menendez is weighing a reelection bid, to the distress of some fellow Democrats looking ahead to 2024. 

Louisiana gubernatorial candidate Shawn Wilson (D) faces a challenging political path amid signs that Democrats need to do more to motivate their base, including Black voters. More than a dozen candidates want to replace term-limited Gov. John Bel Edwards (D), with six big contenders emerging from the pack. The Hill’s Cheyanne M. Daniels and Caroline Vakil write that Wilson, a former state transportation secretary, is expected to qualify during the Saturday primary for a November runoff election with leading Republican candidate Jeff Landry. 

2024 ROUNDUP:

▪ In Arizona, MAGA Republican Kari Lake formally announced her Senate candidacy Tuesday night at a Scottsdale rally. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who left the Democratic Party last year to become an independent, has not yet said whether she’ll run for reelection, but Lake is already preparing for a three-way race against Sinema and Rep. Ruben Gallego, the likely Democratic nominee.

▪ Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has sharpened his attacks on Trump as the GOP presidential primary moves into autumn. DeSantis, who argues that unlike Trump, he’s kept the promises he made to his state, is especially focused on Iowa. Trump will be back in the first-in-the-nation caucus state next week.

▪ Just hours after former Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced his decision to try to get on ballots next year as an independent candidate, a super PAC backing his campaign received more than $11 million in contributions. 

▪ Former Major League Baseball player Steve Garvey, a Republican, announced Tuesday he is running to fill the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s (D-Calif.) Senate seat. It’s a crowded race and a blue state. 

© The Associated Press / Gregory Bull | Former MLB player Steve Garvey on Tuesday declared his Republican candidacy for the California Senate seat held by the late Dianne Feinstein (D).

ELSEWHERE

COURTS

Embattled Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) was charged with 10 new criminal counts over two additional alleged schemes during his campaign, federal prosecutors said Tuesday. Santos pleaded not guilty in May to a 13-count indictment, and the new charges bring the total to 23. The additional indictment comes days after Santos’s former campaign treasurer, Nancy Marks, reached a deal with prosecutors and pleaded guilty to conspiring with the then-candidate to fraudulently inflate his campaign finance reports (The Hill).

© The Associated Press / J. Scott Applewhite | Embattled Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) on Tuesday faced 10 additional criminal counts over accusations he inflated his campaign finance reports and charged donors’ credit cards without authorization.

Evidence shown Tuesday at Trump’s civil fraud trial included a signed document from 30 years ago that gave the true size of his New York penthouse that was later listed as far larger on his financial statements. The evidence appeared in an email attachment shown as Allen Weisselberg, the former finance chief of Trump’s company, testified in New York Attorney General Letitia James’s (D) fraud lawsuit against Trump and his Trump Organization. Trump denies any wrongdoing.

The attachment was a 1994 document, signed by Trump, that pegged his Trump Tower triplex at 10,996 square feet — not the 30,000 square feet later claimed for years on financial statements that were given to banks, insurers and others to make deals and secure loans (The Associated Press).

▪ The Hill: Special counsel Jack Smith is seeking to conceal juror identity in Trump’s Jan. 6 trial.

▪ CNN: Supreme Court declines to revisit landmark libel ruling, although Clarence Thomas wants to reconsider the decision.

▪ Vox: Cities are asking the Supreme Court for more power to clear homeless encampments.

NOTABLE: Eugene Scalia, the son of the late Justice Antonin Scalia, made his Supreme Court debut Tuesday as he argued a corporate whistleblower case. Scalia was representing investment bank UBS Securities as it fights a corporate whistleblower lawsuit at the high court. Watching from the side of the courtroom was Maureen Scalia, the late justice’s widow (The Hill).

HEALTH & WELLBEING

While breast cancer rates continue to creep up year-on-year, particularly among younger women, evolutions in diagnostics and treatment mean patients face far better prospects than ever before. Rapid drug development, personalized screening recommendations, targeted therapies and new treatments like immunotherapies have all helped women diagnosed with early stage and even metastatic breast cancer. But as The Hill’s Julia Manchester and Nathaniel Weixel report, despite the scientific advances, declines in mortality have slowed in recent years, and incidence rates have been slowly increasing by about 0.5 percent per year since the mid-2000s, according to the American Cancer Society. 

OPINION

■ The Gaza trap, by R. David Harden, guest essayist, The New York Times.

■ In Gaza, no one can believe their eyes, by Mosab Abu Toha, guest essayist, The Washington Post.

THE CLOSER

© The Associated Press / Elaine Thompson | Registered nurse Estella Wilmarth cared for a patient last year in Seattle’s acute care unit at Harborview Medical Center.

And finally …  👏👏👏 Today is National Emergency Nurses Day. Is there any group of medical professionals more deserving of international kudos during our current global turmoil? We think not.

War zones. Mass shootings. COVID-19. Disasters. Babies with RSV. Trauma victims. 

Emergency nurses are on the front lines, continually patching up what ails society.

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