Evening Report — Trump, Kennedy to battle for voters on the margins at Libertarian convention

by Jonathan Easley - 05/24/24 5:00 PM ET

Evening Report

Trump, RFK Jr. to battle for voters on the margins at Libertarian convention

Former President Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will both address the Libertarian Party convention this weekend, underscoring the importance third-party voters could have on the 2024 election.

The polls paint a murky picture about what Kennedy’s presence might mean for Trump and President Biden, injecting volatility into a close presidential race.

Some national polls indicate Kennedy could draw more from Biden, while some polls in battleground states show Kennedy could draw support away from Trump, The Hill’s Julia Manchester reports.

In a close race, these third-party and independent voters could swing the outcome one way or the other.

That makes this weekend’s Libertarian nominating convention a prime battleground for Trump and Kennedy. These two political outsiders will be looking to woo Libertarian voters who are used to being treated as interlopers in a two-party system.

As the libertarian-leaning Cato Institute notes here, it’s quite strange for a political party to invite the nominee of another political party to its nominating convention for a campaign speech.

Cato’s David Boaz writes that most Libertarians should be “appalled and mystified about why a self-proclaimed libertarian party would invite a would-be autocrat to dominate coverage of its convention.”

Trump’s presence will indeed draw loads of media scrutiny to a nominating convention that is traditionally overlooked by the mainstream media.

There have been high hopes for Libertarian candidates in the past, most notably for former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, who hoped to get on the debate stage with Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016.

After notching double-digit support in a couple of early polls, Johnson’s campaign flamed out, and he drew only 3.3 percent support nationally against two historically unpopular candidates. Still, many pundits blamed Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein for Clinton’s loss, suggesting that she would have won if that third-party vote had swung her way.

The libertarian-leaning outlet Reason posited that the Libertarian vote helped swing the race to Biden in 2020 because Trump failed to rally right-leaning third-party and independent voters. That year, Reason states, the share of third-party and independent voters dipped significantly from 2016, while Biden’s share of the national vote climbed higher than Clinton’s.

To win in 2024, Trump may need to draw strong support from the political outsiders he’s courting this weekend. It’s clear he views Kennedy as a direct threat in that effort.

More campaign coverage:

The Trump campaign is hoping it neutralized a different threat this week when former rival for the GOP nomination, Nikki Haley, endorsed his candidacy.

In a warning sign for Trump, some Republican primary voters have continued to vote for Haley despite the fact that she dropped out of the race months ago.

Trump says now that he expects Haley to join his campaign team in some capacity.

The Hill’s Alex Gangitano and Julia Manchester explain why that’s a big deal for Trump.

Related coverage:

Trump and DeSantis put personal primary fight behind them (AP)
Ohio governor calls special session to address Biden’s ballot issues (Cleveland.com)
Biden’s narrow path to victory goes through the Midwest (Liberal Patriot)

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NEW THIS AFTERNOON

‘Go to hell’: GOP seethes after top court orders Israel to end military operation in Rafah

The top court for the United Nations ordered Israel to end its military operation in Rafah, provoking a blistering response from Israel’s allies on Capitol Hill.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said in a post on X that the International Court of Justice (ICJ) can “go to hell.”

“This will and should be ignored by Israel.”

The Hill’s Lauren Irwin has a rundown of everything you should know about the ICJ’s ruling and what comes next.

It’s the latest political maneuver by an international body to draw a rebuke from Washington, following the effort by officials at the International Criminal Court (ICC) to request arrest warrants for Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Lawmakers in both parties are working on a bill to sanction the ICC for its request for arrest warrants.

The Hill’s Mychael Schnell and Mike Lillis report that the bipartisan group of lawmakers is “hoping a forceful bipartisan response from Washington will deter the court’s judges from ratifying the charges in the coming weeks,” but the lawmakers are hampered by the long holiday recess.

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is moving forward with his plan to have Netanyahu address a joint session of Congress.

Some Democratic lawmakers, angered by what they view as Israel’s excessive military operations and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, have already said they’ll boycott that speech.

Filing from Jerusalem, The Hill’s Laura Kelly reports that Israel’s vow to intensify military operations in Rafah, which has become a home for many misplaced people in Gaza, has strained support for Israel both at home and abroad.

Related coverage:

IN CONGRESS

Trump, Alito spur Democratic cries for reform

Senate Democrats’ anger at the conservative majority on the Supreme Court is white hot in the days after the revelation that Justice Samuel Alito flew an “Appeal to Heaven” flag at one of his homes.

The flag, which has become a symbol for Christian governance, was carried by some Jan. 6 protesters. Alito was previously scrutinized for flying the American flag upside down at a different home, in what Democrats believe was a show of solidarity with the “Stop the Steal” movement.

The Hill’s Alexander Bolton reports that Democrats increasingly view the Supreme Court as “out of control” and enthralled to a “partisan” political agenda. From Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.):

“Frustration with the court in the sense that it is illegitimate is extremely high.”

The Alito controversy comes after ProPublica reported on Justice Clarence Thomas accepting gifts from wealthy conservative benefactors, some of whom have had business before the high court.

Merkley told Bolton there’s “increasing political momentum” toward reforming the court, either through increasing the number of justices or rotating justices to preserve ideological balance.

Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), the chair of a key judiciary subcommittee, sent a letter to Chief Justice John Roberts on Friday requesting a meeting to discuss their concerns about Alito.

Democrats want Alito to recuse himself from all cases pertaining to Jan. 6.

Republicans are defending Alito, believing the controversy to be manufactured by the media.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who sits on the Judiciary Committee, told CNN that “Democrats are determined to harass members of the Supreme Court” because they’re upset conservatives hold a majority.

“People who are judges on the Supreme Courts have personal lives, they have families, and I don’t think they’re necessarily responsible for everything their families do or say.”

Senate Democrats also have Trump in their sights.

At issue is a new report that Trump requested campaign cash from oil executives, arguing it would be a good “deal” for them because of the tax cuts and relaxed regulations he’d implement.

The Democratic chairs of the Finance and Budget Committees, Sens. Ron Wyden (Ore.) and Sheldon Whitehouse (R.I.), accused the oil industry of “conferring on now to trade campaign cash for policy changes” and demanded they turn over all materials from the campaign event.

Scott touts Trump relationship in leadership bid

Sen. Rick Scott’s (R-Fla.) bid to be the next GOP leader in the Senate might hinge on whether Trump wins the election in 2024.

The Hill’s Alexander Bolton reports that Scott is currently an underdog to succeed Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). Sens. John Thune (R-S.D.) and John Cornyn (R-Texas) are also in the running.

But if Trump wins the election, he could swing the leadership race to Scott, an ally of former President Trump.

Meanwhile, the current Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is teeing up a vote on contraception next month as part of an election year push among Democrats to highlight their support for reproductive rights.

The Hill’s Nathaniel Weixel reports:

“The effort will likely be blocked, but Democrats want to get Republicans on the record on contraception, especially as the GOP struggles with how to message its stance on reproductive rights in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade.”

More from Capitol Hill:

Here’s what’s in the mammoth $883.7 billion Defense bill the House passed.

OP-EDS IN THE HILL

“How Trump can become the candidate for price stability,” by Sean Feiler, chairman of the American Principles Project.

“A second Trump term could actually make inflation worse,” by Nicholas Sargent, economic consultant at the University of Virginia’s Darden School of Business.