Evening Report

4 questions hanging over the GOP debate

by Amee LaTour 09/27/23 04:30 PM ET

Presented by Southern Company — The candidates who need a big moment at second GOP debate

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Evening Report

4 questions hanging over second GOP debate

Republican presidential hopefuls will take the debate stage at 9 p.m. ET tonight for their second on-stage clash.

Former President Trump, the GOP frontrunner, won’t be at the debate, giving the seven candidates in attendance another chance to stand out.

Here are four questions hanging over the event:

1. Will Trump respond tonight?

Trump is set to deliver remarks to autoworkers in Clinton Township, Mich., at 8 p.m., one hour before the debate.

While Trump reacted more or less in real time online to the last debate, recently he’s kept his focus on President Biden and the general election.

Expect his counter-programming tonight to similarly be focused on a potential Trump-Biden rematch.

2. How many people will watch?

At least 12.8 million people tuned into the first GOP debate last month (that figure doesn’t include people who watched portions outside cable Fox News broadcasts or Fox’s digital streams).

Viewership for subsequent debates typically tapers, though millions are still expected to tune in for the clash at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation & Institute in Simi Valley, Calif.

For reference: In 2015, 24 million watched the first GOP debate, compared to about 23 million who watched the second.

3. Will it move the needle for anyone?

National polling averages from FiveThirtyEight show Trump at 54 percent and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in second at 14 percent. No other candidate is polling above single digits.

The stakes for low-polling candidates are clear.

Since the first debate on Aug. 23:

Trump (who wasn’t at the debate) and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley support nationally increased a few percentage points. North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum‘s increase put him around 1 percent.
Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, Sen. Tim Scott (S.C.) and DeSantis all saw declines, while former Vice President Mike Pence and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie‘s averages are nearly unchanged.
The Hill’s Julia Manchester noted Haley and Ramaswamy have seen recent upticks in support in New Hampshire.

4. Who faces the biggest hurdles going forward?

Candidates may face pressure to bow out if they don’t qualify for the next debate on Nov. 8. The GOP hopefuls will need to hit 4 percent in two national polls or 4 percent in one national poll and two early state polls to qualify.

This could be an especial challenge for Burgum and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson. Hutchinson didn’t qualify for Wednesday’s debate, but he said he’s staying in the race at least until November.

MORE:

Keep reading to see what strategists & experts are looking for tonight
Here’s how to watch the debate, via The Hill
Follow The Hill’s live blog for coverage throughout the night

Welcome to Evening Report! I’m Amee LaTour, catching you up from the afternoon and what’s coming tomorrow. Not on the list? Subscribe here.

CATCH UP QUICK

The Biden campaign released its first direct attack ad against Trump, saying the former president’s policies hurt autoworkers.
A number of late-night TV shows are set to return Sunday and Monday following the end of the Writers Guild of America strike.
From scripture to Springsteen: Check out how Republican presidential candidates are preparing for tonight’s debate.

💬 WEDNESDAY ONE-LINERS

Each week we feature brief responses from relevant individuals to a question on our minds. Today we talk to some strategists and experts.

🐘 What are you watching at the second GOP debate?

📣 “How many minutes of the debate do not discuss Donald Trump, how many times Gov. DeSantis gets additional time to respond to attacks by other candidates and how that last number compares to the same metric for other candidates.” – Justin Sayfie, Florida-based Republican strategist and publisher of Sayfie Review

📣 “[H]ow large of a role will frontrunner Donald Trump play over the course of the two hour event. … If [DeSantis, Haley and Ramaswamy] are going to close a substantial polling gap with Trump, they need to take him on directly over major issues such as Ukraine, abortion, federal spending, the auto worker strike, etc. It will be fascinating to see whether they in fact attempt to engage in this riskier strategy or continue to play it safe and focus their attention on others present who are not likely to be the Republican nominee…” – Aaron Kall, director of debate for the University of Michigan Debate Program

📣 “I’ll be watching to see who among the candidates learned from their first debate performances and how this manifests itself in their participation. Learning and updating is a big part of the job — and I like to see candidates who react and respond to the data and feedback they get.” – Lynn Vavreck, American Politics professor at the University of California Los Angeles

📣 “The second debate feels like the side stage with President Trump counter programming in Michigan. The two big questions headed into Wednesday night, who is ready to make a cogent argument why Trump should not be the nominee and will anyone capture the affections of primary voters and break out of the pack as the herd begins to thin? DeSantis had a real shot to win, but sunshine has not been his friend.” – Brian Seitchik, national Republican strategist and Trump campaign alum

NEW THIS AFTERNOON

Lawmakers: McCarthy won’t allow vote on Senate stopgap

Each chamber of Congress is racing to pass its own continuing resolution (CR) to temporarily extend government funding by the weekend deadline.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) on Wednesday told the GOP conference he won’t call a vote on the Senate CR should it arrive in the House, according to two lawmakers.
The Senate measure was crafted with more bipartisan support than the House’s GOP-driven CR, which McCarthy plans to bring to the floor Friday.

The House bill, in turn, “will be dead on arrival in the Senate,” The Hill’s Mychael Schnell noted, “but is meant to open negotiations with Democrats in the upper chamber.” It’s unclear whether McCarthy has the votes to pass it in his own chamber, though.

Follow The Hill’s live blog for more on the government funding front.

IN OTHER NEWS

Menendez requests to address Democratic conference

Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) has asked to speak to his Democratic colleagues on Thursday as calls for his resignation grow. Menendez pleaded not guilty on Wednesday morning to bribery, fraud and extortion charges.

Also Wednesday morning, Senate Democratic Whip Dick Durbin (Ill.), the second-ranking Democrat in the chamber, joined more than 20 others in the conference calling for Menendez to resign.

Meanwhile, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) declined to call for the New Jersey Democrat to resign this afternoon, saying, “We’ll see what happens after” Menendez addresses the conference Thursday.

PUNDIT CORNER

“Joe Biden proves Democrats can deliver for labor” — Max Burns, a veteran Democratic strategist and founder of Third Degree Strategies. (Read here)

“Biden’s union pandering sets him on a collision course with EV promises he can’t keep” — Liz Peek, a former partner of major bracket Wall Street firm Wertheim & Company. (Read here)

⏲️ COUNTDOWN

3 days until the government funding deadline.

110 days until Iowa holds the first Republican presidential nominating contest on Jan. 15, 2024.

🗓 ON TAP TOMORROW

10 a.m.: The House Oversight and Accountability Committee holds the first impeachment inquiry hearing, titled “The Basis for an Impeachment Inquiry of President Joseph R. Biden, Jr.”

Evening Report

4 questions hanging over second GOP debate

CATCH UP QUICK

💬 WEDNESDAY ONE-LINERS

🐘 What are you watching at the second GOP debate?

Lawmakers: McCarthy won’t allow vote on Senate stopgap

IN OTHER NEWS

Menendez requests to address Democratic conference

⏲️ COUNTDOWN

🗓 ON TAP TOMORROW

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