Campaign Report

Speaker turmoil backs some Republicans into corner

by Caroline Vakil and Elizabeth Crisp 10/19/23 03:50 PM CDT

WASHINGTON, DC - OCTOBER 18: U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) (R) talks to Speaker Pro Tempore Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC) as the House of Representatives prepares to hold a vote on a new Speaker of the House at the U.S. Capitol on October 18, 2023 in Washington, DC. House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH) failed in his bid to become Speaker of the House on Tuesday after all Democrats and 20 members of his own party declined to vote for him. The House has been without an elected leader since Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) was ousted from the speakership on October 4 in a move led by a small group of conservative members of his own party. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)

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Campaign Report

The Big Story

Speaker turmoil backs some Republicans into corner

Vulnerable House Republicans are in a dilemma: risk their chances in districts President Biden won, or potentially face blowback from conservatives in a primary.

House Republicans in swing districts are contending with a lose-lose situation as Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) vies for the House Speakership role.

As The Hill’s Julia Manchester reports, vulnerable Republicans risk prompting anger from Republicans in their home districts if they don’t vote for Jordan — a former President Trump ally — as Speaker or becoming targets in districts President Biden won last cycle.

What they’re saying: “There’s no question that the damage is being done right now,” former GOP congressman Vin Weber told Julia. “Republicans in marginal districts are worried about Democrat opponents running ads that say Congress person-X voted to make Jim Jordan Speaker, and he was involved in the Jan. 6 insurrection.”

But other Republicans say they’re skeptical the vote will move the needle among voters, with the 2024 election more than a year away.

“At the end of the day, [voters are] going to go, ‘OK, I get that, but how does it directly apply to me and my family right now?’ That’s how voters are going to look at this,” said one national Republican strategist.

But the chaos in the House as Republicans have struggled to elect a Speaker is creating a paralysis in Congress as it faces another threat over a government shutdown after mid-November and as the Israel-Hamas war rages on.

Republicans have been working for two weeks to elect a new House Speaker after Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) was ousted from the role earlier this month. The majority of the GOP caucus voted for House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) over Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) in the nominating contest, but Scalise later exited the race given he was unable to muster the 217 votes needed to win the House vote.

Republicans then nominated Jordan for Speaker, but he’s fallen short of the 217 votes needed to win the Speakership after two rounds of votes.

The push for Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) to be temporary Speaker has hit a roadblock, and Jordan signaled that he is pressing on with his bid.

Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, we’re Julia Manchester, Jared Gans, Caroline Vakil and Elizabeth Crisp. Each week we track the key stories you need to know to stay ahead of the 2024 election and who will set the agenda in Washington.

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By the Numbers

Polls spell trouble for Biden

President Biden and former President Trump remain neck-and-neck in a hypothetical rematch heading into the 2024 presidential election.

RealClearPolitics, which tracks election polling, has both tied at 43.9 percent in an average of the most recent polls — positioning they have held since each announced their plans to run next year.

Here are some of the polls from this week:

Swing and a hit-or-miss: Trump, the strong front-runner in the GOP primary field, holds a narrow lead over Biden in key swing states, according to a new Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll of voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Respondents in that poll ranked Trump at the top in Georgia by 5 percentage points, Arizona by 4 points, North Carolina by 4 points, Wisconsin by 2 points and Pennsylvania by 1 point. Meanwhile, Biden was up 3 points in Nevada, and the two candidates are in a statistical tie in Michigan.

Spoiler alert: Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a member of the vaunted Kennedy family who is running for president as an independent, could help Biden get a boost over Trump, despite Kennedy’s deep Democratic lineage.

An NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll found that in a three-way race, 44 percent of respondents picked Biden, while 37 percent voiced support for Trump and 16 percent for Kennedy. Biden’s lead narrows significantly when Kennedy is removed, with Kennedy voters jumping to Trump or remaining undecided.

Trump card: Trump has a slight edge over Biden nationally, according to a poll out Wednesday from CNBC.

The network’s All-America Economic Survey, 46 percent of registered voters surveyed said they are leaning toward Trump or would vote for him today. Another 42 percent said they are leaning toward or will be voting Biden, and 12 percent said they haven’t made up their mind.

BUT WAIT: A University of Virginia Center For Politics survey also released Wednesday has Biden ahead. In that poll, 52 percent of respondents said they are backing Biden, while 48 percent they support Trump.

Of note from the UVA poll: Respondents generally did not feel especially strongly about either candidate.

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