Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is slipping in the polls ahead of next week’s first debate, which is slated to be a major moment for him as he seeks to gain traction in the 2024 race.
A Quinnipiac University poll released on Wednesday showed the Florida governor’s support in the GOP primary poll slipping to its lowest level this year. Eighteen percent of Republican and Republican-leaning voters said they supported the Florida governor, which is his lowest level of support in Quinnipiac’s polling of the GOP primary this year.
Former President Trump, on the other hand, clocked in at a whopping 57 percent support among Republican and Republican-leaning voters. Quinnipiac noted that DeSantis was only 6 points behind the former president in February, but now he finds himself trailing Trump by 39 points.
That poll came on the heels of an Emerson College poll out of New Hampshire that showed former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie leapfrogging DeSantis by 1 point in the state. Christie’s 1-point lead over DeSantis falls within the poll’s plus-or-minus 3.4 percent margin of error.
The recent polling spells bad news for the DeSantis campaign, which has seen a rebooted campaign and two rounds of layoffs in recent weeks.
However, the governor’s allies say there is still time for the governor to build momentum, pointing to next week’s debate. DeSantis will have the opportunity to introduce himself to a nationwide audience with potentially 20 million viewers and an opportunity for a bump.
Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, we’re Julia Manchester, Caroline Vakil, and Jared Gans. Each week we track the key stories you need to know to stay ahead of the 2024 election and who will set the agenda in Washington.
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Speaking of New Hampshire polling, The Hill’s Caroline Vakil reports that the former New Jersey governor now sees a path to beat Trump in the Granite State.
Christie has notably made New Hampshire a focal point of his campaign, which is what he did during his first presidential run in 2016.
“It’s a place that is I think suited better for him. I think polling certainly shows that right now,” Christie campaign adviser Michael DuHaime told Caroline, explaining why they’re focusing on New Hampshire this cycle.
In a caucus, “you have a … smaller number of folks that come out. It’s larger in a primary and then even larger in an open primary, which is where independents can vote, and which is the case in New Hampshire,” DuHaime said, adding, “The larger broader electorate is conducive to him and his message.”
Christie has sought to position himself as the chief opponent to Trump’s renomination, expressing a willingness to attack the former president in a way that other candidates have not, and polling has shown him catching on in the state that will hold the first GOP primary next year.
Republican strategist Jim Merrill said he thinks Christie is hoping for a strong performance in New Hampshire with a dwindling field after to allow him to get closer to facing off with Trump directly.
DuHaime said for now the campaign is pleased with the former governor’s performance but noted that all of the early-voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina are central to candidates’ success.
The first Republican presidential debate is fast approaching next week, with more than half a dozen candidates set to take the national stage against each other for the first time.
But one of the biggest question marks remains whether Trump will be in attendance, after months of hinting that he might skip at least the first debate. And he has put the Republican National Committee (RNC) in a difficult situation with his refusal to sign the loyalty pledge that is required for all qualified candidates who wish to participate in the debate.
RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel has not given any indication that the RNC will change its requirements given Trump’s announcement, but Trump has considerable influence as both a major driver of ratings and the front-runner for the GOP nomination.
“It’s a distinct possibility that the Republican nominee for president could simply decide to shun the RNC itself,” Republican strategist Brian Seitchik told The Hill’s Julia Manchester.
Most of the other candidates who have met the RNC’s polling and fundraising requirements to be on the stage have already signed the pledge, and no other candidate who has met those thresholds has indicated that they would not sign it.
Trump stood out from the rest of the Republican field in 2016 when he was the only one to openly refuse to commit to backing the eventual nominee.
Regardless of whether Trump participates, the debate’s moderators, Fox News hosts Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum, have said they are preparing for if Trump shows up and if he doesn’t. They told Politico that they will have questions prepared for every candidate, including Trump.
MacCallum said every voter she has spoken to has said they want to see Trump participate, but Baier said Trump will cast a shadow on the debate even if he is not physically there.
“If he’s not there, he’ll still be there,” he said. “In other words, he’ll be a part of questioning. There may be sound bites, there may be elements where ‘this is what the leader of the primary says about this issue.’ He’ll be there, even if he’s not there.”
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