Campaign Report
|
Campaign Report
|
|
|
DeSantis slips in polls ahead of first debate
|
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is slipping in the polls ahead of next week’s first debate, which is slated to be a major moment for him as he seeks to gain traction in the 2024 race.
|
A Quinnipiac University poll released on Wednesday showed the Florida governor’s support in the GOP primary poll slipping to its lowest level this year. Eighteen percent of Republican and Republican-leaning voters said they supported the Florida governor, which is his lowest level of support in Quinnipiac’s polling of the GOP primary this year.
Former President Trump, on the other hand, clocked in at a whopping 57 percent support among Republican and Republican-leaning voters. Quinnipiac noted that DeSantis was only 6 points behind the former president in February, but now he finds himself trailing Trump by 39 points.
That poll came on the heels of an Emerson College poll out of New Hampshire that showed former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie leapfrogging DeSantis by 1 point in the state. Christie’s 1-point lead over DeSantis falls within the poll’s plus-or-minus 3.4 percent margin of error.
The recent polling spells bad news for the DeSantis campaign, which has seen a rebooted campaign and two rounds of layoffs in recent weeks.
However, the governor’s allies say there is still time for the governor to build momentum, pointing to next week’s debate. DeSantis will have the opportunity to introduce himself to a nationwide audience with potentially 20 million viewers and an opportunity for a bump.
|
Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, we’re Julia Manchester, Caroline Vakil, and Jared Gans. Each week we track the key stories you need to know to stay ahead of the 2024 election and who will set the agenda in Washington.
|
|
|
Key election stories and other recent campaign coverage:
|
|
|
A leaked debate memo drafted by the heads of the pro-Ron DeSantis super PAC Never Back Down details how they think the Florida governor should attack businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, calling for DeSantis to “take a sledgehammer” to his GOP rival. The New York Times was the first outlet to report on the memo, which was posted along with another trove of debate strategy documents on Axiom Strategies’s …
|
|
|
|
Former President Trump on Thursday bashed his former attorney general, Bill Barr, mocking him as “slow thinking and lethargic” and complaining he did not pursue Trump’s debunked claims of election fraud after the 2020 election. Trump routinely targets Barr over the former attorney general’s regular television appearances criticizing the former president. But Wednesday’s comments came after Barr …
|
|
|
|
Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), who has criticized President Biden’s reelection efforts, expressed his concern that a rematch between Biden and former President Trump could result in a second Trump term. “We’re at grave risk of another Trump presidency,” Phillips said in an interview published Thursday in The Washington Post. “I’m doing this to prevent a return of Donald Trump to the White House.” Phillips has grown increasingly …
|
|
|
|
Upcoming news themes and events we’re watching:
|
- 58 days until Louisiana’s gubernatorial primary
-
82 days until Kentucky and Mississippi’s gubernatorial generals
- 445 days until the 2024 general election
|
|
|
Christie sees a path in New Hampshire
|
Speaking of New Hampshire polling, The Hill’s Caroline Vakil reports that the former New Jersey governor now sees a path to beat Trump in the Granite State.
Christie has notably made New Hampshire a focal point of his campaign, which is what he did during his first presidential run in 2016.
“It’s a place that is I think suited better for him. I think polling certainly shows that right now,” Christie campaign adviser Michael DuHaime told Caroline, explaining why they’re focusing on New Hampshire this cycle.
In a caucus, “you have a … smaller number of folks that come out. It’s larger in a primary and then even larger in an open primary, which is where independents can vote, and which is the case in New Hampshire,” DuHaime said, adding, “The larger broader electorate is conducive to him and his message.”
Christie has sought to position himself as the chief opponent to Trump’s renomination, expressing a willingness to attack the former president in a way that other candidates have not, and polling has shown him catching on in the state that will hold the first GOP primary next year.
Republican strategist Jim Merrill said he thinks Christie is hoping for a strong performance in New Hampshire with a dwindling field after to allow him to get closer to facing off with Trump directly.
DuHaime said for now the campaign is pleased with the former governor’s performance but noted that all of the early-voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina are central to candidates’ success.
|
|
|
Debate prep underway, with or without Trump
|
© AP Photo/Artie Walker Jr.
|
The first Republican presidential debate is fast approaching next week, with more than half a dozen candidates set to take the national stage against each other for the first time.
But one of the biggest question marks remains whether Trump will be in attendance, after months of hinting that he might skip at least the first debate. And he has put the Republican National Committee (RNC) in a difficult situation with his refusal to sign the loyalty pledge that is required for all qualified candidates who wish to participate in the debate.
RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel has not given any indication that the RNC will change its requirements given Trump’s announcement, but Trump has considerable influence as both a major driver of ratings and the front-runner for the GOP nomination.
“It’s a distinct possibility that the Republican nominee for president could simply decide to shun the RNC itself,” Republican strategist Brian Seitchik told The Hill’s Julia Manchester.
Most of the other candidates who have met the RNC’s polling and fundraising requirements to be on the stage have already signed the pledge, and no other candidate who has met those thresholds has indicated that they would not sign it.
Trump stood out from the rest of the Republican field in 2016 when he was the only one to openly refuse to commit to backing the eventual nominee.
Regardless of whether Trump participates, the debate’s moderators, Fox News hosts Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum, have said they are preparing for if Trump shows up and if he doesn’t. They told Politico that they will have questions prepared for every candidate, including Trump.
MacCallum said every voter she has spoken to has said they want to see Trump participate, but Baier said Trump will cast a shadow on the debate even if he is not physically there.
“If he’s not there, he’ll still be there,” he said. “In other words, he’ll be a part of questioning. There may be sound bites, there may be elements where ‘this is what the leader of the primary says about this issue.’ He’ll be there, even if he’s not there.”
|
|
|
Branch out with a different read from The Hill:
|
|
|
GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley has dismissed the suggestion that she’s running in the 2024 race in order to get the vice presidency. “I think everybody that says, ‘She’s doing this to be vice president,’ needs to understand I don’t run for second,” Haley said in an interview reported by Politico on Thursday. “That’s something that I hear all the time, and I’ll tell you that, look, we have a country to save, and I don’t …
|
Former President Trump attacked Fox News and its flagship morning news program Thursday over the way it has been covering him. “Why doesn’t Fox and Friends show all of the Polls where I am beating Biden, by a lot. They just won’t do it,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social website. The former president also took issue with the way the network was portraying him physically. “They purposely show the absolutely worst …
|
|
|
Local and state headlines regarding campaigns and elections:
|
-
Colorado considers changing its red flag law after mass shooting at nightclub (Kaiser Health News)
-
UCSF apologizes for experiments done on prisoners in the ’60s and ’70s (Los Angeles Times)
-
Watch your sprouts! Nebraska health departments issue salmonella warning (WOWT)
|
|
|
Election news we’ve flagged from other outlets:
|
-
‘Everybody has blood on their hands’: A decade-long battle over Medicare Advantage audits is coming to a head (Stat)
-
A baby spent 36 days in an in-network NICU. Why did the hospital next door send a bill? (Kaiser Health News)
-
Rep. Nancy Mace warns her party to adopt a more ‘centrist’ abortion agenda or lose women voters (The 19th News)
|
|
|
Key stories on The Hill right now:
|
|
|
Grand jurors who voted to indict former President Trump in Georgia earlier this week are facing threats and a profusion of racist comments online. The jurors’ names were listed publicly within the indictment, as required under Georgia law. A review of social media platforms and far-right forums found users posting numerous racial slurs … Read more
|
|
Mark Meadows has always prided himself on navigating the complexities of Washington’s power circles, but his central role in former President Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election could present the biggest challenge yet for a man who often claimed he plays “10 dimensional chess.” While Meadows appeared to avoid culpability in the … Read more
|
|
|
Opinions related to campaigns and elections submitted to The Hill:
|
|
|
|
You’re all caught up. See you next time!
|
| | |
