The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, held steady on the month:
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The PCE fell to a 3 percent annual increase in October.
- That’s down from 3.4 percent increases in the previous three months. It’s also the lowest number since March 2021.
- Personal incomes rose 0.2 percent on the month, down from 0.4 percent in September and 0.5 in October.
Markets, which have already started to price in rate cuts for next year, expect the Fed to hold rates steady at the next meeting of its rate-setting committee Dec. 12-13.
There’s a 96 percent chance the Fed will keep rates within their current range of 5.25 percent to 5.5 percent, according to a prediction algorithm by financial data company CME.
That’s despite the Fed’s last official projection from September, which calls for an additional quarter-point rate hike for this year.
The “core” PCE — which removes the categories of food and energy that are subject to geopolitical pressures — fell to a 3.5 percent annual increase in October, down from 3.7 percent in September and 3.8 percent in August.
Both the core and the headline PCE numbers are now below where the Fed expected them to be at end of the year, according to the central bank’s latest summary of projections.
The Hill’s Tobias Burns has more here.
