On The Money — What to know on coming Social Security COLA hike

Need more information about tomorrow’s Social Security cost-of-living adjustment increase? You’ve come to the right place. We’ll also dive into those 16-year-high mortgage rates reached recently, the rebound wholesale inflation has made, and more. 

But before we get down to brass tacks, have you seen the world’s tallest living domestic cat?

Welcome to On The Money, your nightly guide to everything affecting your bills, bank account and bottom line. For The Hill, we’re Sylvan Lane, Aris Folley and Karl Evers-Hillstrom. Subscribe here.

White House details expectations for Thursday hike

The White House predicted Americans on Social Security will see a $140 per month increase following the Social Security Administration’s Thursday announcement, where it’s expected to unveil a cost of living adjustment (COLA).

• The COLA is expected to change by at least 8 percent, which would be the largest increase in four decades.
  
• That’s not surprising, given that the yearly adjustment is determined by soaring inflation. 

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said the COLA would give seniors “a chance to get ahead of inflation” when coupled with falling Medicare premiums. 

“For the first time in over a decade, seniors’ Medicare premiums will decrease even as their Social Security checks increase,” Jean-Pierre said. 

Alex Gangitano has more here.

Also from The Hill: 

• What you need to know about this week’s Social Security COLA hike
  
  

RATES STILL RISING

Mortgage rates rise, hit another 16-year high 

Mortgage rates reached another 16-year high last week as the once red-hot housing market continues to cool, according to data released Wednesday from the Mortgage Bankers Association. 

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped to 6.81 percent in the first week of October, marking the eighth consecutive weekly increase and the highest rate since 2008. 

Overall, mortgage applications continued their decline, falling by 2 percent from a week earlier.  

Mortgage rates have more than doubled over the past year and continue to rise amid the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes. 

Adam Barnes has more here. 

STOCK SHOCK

IMF director: Further 20 percent drop in stocks ‘certainly possible’ 

The director of monetary and capital markets at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday that a further 20 percent drop in U.S. stocks is “certainly possible,” as recession fears continue to grow. 

“It’s certainly possible,” IMF’s Tobias Adrian told CNBC. “It’s not our baseline, but that is something that is possible.” 

The remark from Adrian comes after JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon suggested that the S&P 500 could continue to fall and warned that the U.S. will likely face a recession next year. The S&P 500 has already fallen by about 25 percent so far this year. 

“It could be another easy 20 percent,” Dimon said told CNBC on Monday of the S&P 500. “And I think the next 20 percent will be much more painful than the first.” 

Here’s more from The Hill’s Julia Shapero. 

PRODUCER PRICES

Wholesale inflation rebounds in September after two monthly drops 

Wholesale inflation accelerated in September after two straight months of falling prices for producers’ goods and services, according to data released Wednesday by the Labor Department. 

The producer price index, which tracks the prices producers charge for their goods and services, rose 0.4 percent in September.  

Economists expected a smaller 0.2-percent increase in producer prices last month. 

Producer prices are up 8.5 percent on the year, down from an 8.7 percent inflation rate in August and in line with economists’ expectations. 

Sylvan breaks it down here.

Good to Know

Minutes from the latest meeting of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee show the U.S. central bank is still surprised by persistently high inflation, after members initially characterized the price increases as a short-term phenomenon.

Other items we’re keeping an eye on: 

• Backlash to Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s (R-Ala.) remarks at a campaign rally in Nevada linking slavery reparations to crime is drawing attention to a long-sought bill that has stalled in Congress.
  
• A strong dollar and rising U.S. interest rates are looming over this week’s International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank meetings in Washington, D.C. where the Federal Reserve is likely to come under some criticism over how its policies are impacting the rest of the world. 
  
  

That’s it for today. Thanks for reading and check out The Hill’s Finance page for the latest news and coverage. We’ll see you tomorrow.