It’s Wednesday. The television sets are being packed up, the airport in Manchester, N.H., is bustling and all eyes have moved onto South Carolina. Last night’s primary results weren’t dramatic, but very telling.
The biggest takeaway from Tuesday is that former President Trump is very popular among Republicans and very unpopular among independents. This could be significant ahead of the general election.
GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley has a tough path to the nomination, but she vowed to stay in the race.
If you listened to Haley’s primary night speech out of context, you’d think she won. And if you listened to Trump’s speech out of context, you’d think he lost. It’s clear Haley is getting under Trump’s skin. - Variety reports that
Jon Stewart is returning to host Comedy Central’s “The Daily Show” on Mondays (!)
Filing with an extra-large coffee on a snowy, New Hampshire morning, I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Send tips, commentary, feedback and cookie recipes to cmartel@digital-stage.thehill.com. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here.
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⛷️ Breaking Down New Hampshire |
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All this speculation and now we know how it ends: |
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Former President Trump beat former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley by roughly 11 points in New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary, according to Decision Desk HQ, settling the debate over whether anti-Trump independents could propel Haley onto the podium.
What this means for Trump: Trump will almost certainly be the Republican presidential nominee. It would take a major shake-up to change that. The Hill’s Jared Gans pointed out that Trump is the first nonincumbent Republican candidate in modern history to win both the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary.
What this means for Haley: She has a tough path forward, but she’s not throwing in the towel just yet. Like New Hampshire, South Carolina allows independent voters to participate in the primary. That could really benefit Haley, but she would need to significantly improve her standing among Republicans to ever win the nomination. That looks increasingly unlikely.
What this means for the 2024 primary: “Primary season looks short and drama-free,” The Hill’s Caroline Vakil and Julia Mueller write.
Interesting nugget from The Associated Press’s style: “AP says it will not refer to Trump and Biden as the ‘presumptive’ nominees for president until at least March.” (From The Hill’s Dominick Mastrangelo) |
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➤ THE SPEECHES FELT SWAPPED: |
⬇️ If you watched Trump’s speech last night, you may not have known that he won: Trump fumed over Haley in his victory speech. Trump repeatedly tore into Haley, mocking her “fancy dress” and accusing her of “bulls—t.” It was very clear that Haley has gotten under his skin. His primary night event felt like a lively cocktail party, but Trump’s energy did not match that.
⬆️ If you watched Haley’s speech last night, you’d think she won: Haley’s message to supporters was her promise that “this race is far from over.” The Hill’s Julia Manchester said the primary night watch party felt more like a victory celebration.
Haley’s camp is seeking to capitalize on Trump’s response to the New Hampshire results, putting out an email Wednesday pitching a return to “normalcy” and mocking what it called the former president’s “meltdown.”
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The one figure that tells you everything you need to know: |
A CNN exit poll found that registered Republicans in New Hampshire backed Trump by a 3-to-1 margin. But two-thirds of independent voters favored Haley. CNN exit poll 💡 Why this matters: That’s why Haley will have an extremely difficult time winning the nomination — and it’s also why Trump will have difficulty winning in the general election. Republicans love him, but everyone else does not. And to take it one step further: Most Republican primary voters in New Hampshire say Trump is fit for office even if he is convicted, according to exit polling.
This!: The Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman posted: “New Hampshire is politically unique in many ways, but it’s off the charts in terms of its share of independent voters who don’t like Trump.”
NBC News’s Steve Kornacki broke down the dramatic swing: “We’ve never seen a gap between the independent vote and the Republican vote in an NH GOP primary like we saw last night. Trump won R’s by 49, Haley took independents by 22 — a swing of 71 points. Previous high was 40.” See the numbers |
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I can’t get over this: Former President Trump’s watch party was held at the Sheraton Nashua, which closely resembles a medieval castle, stone pillars, protruding flagpoles and all. The hilltop hotel is in South Nashua, right on the New Hampshire-Massachusetts border. Yes, Trump held his party at a medieval castle on the border. |
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The primary is so uniquely weird and I absolutely love it: Donald Trump’s adult son Eric Trump stopped by the lobby of the DoubleTree by Hilton hotel in Manchester on Tuesday afternoon. Satirical presidential candidate Vermin Supreme, who wears a boot on his head and a glitter cape, followed Trump’s entourage, yelling, “Choo choo! I’m on the Trump train!” Watch Vermin approach Eric Trump: 📹 Video from GBH’s Alexi Cohan
New Hampshire kids understood the assignment: New Hampshire held a contest for local fourth graders to design this year’s “I voted” stickers. 🎨 Here are the winning designs / Photo of a voter sporting the moose design
Spotted at the Trump rally: Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Trump’s first campaign manager Corey Lewandowski, Eric and Lara Trump, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), former GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy and former Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.).
Santos looked like he was having a grand old time: I first spotted him at the bar. I then saw him mingle around the ballroom. 📸 Photos and video
Rudy’s adoring fans: Giuliani hovered around the ballroom’s exit after Trump finished. Dozens of Trump supporters hovered around him to get a photo, causing a bottleneck. Event organizers directed people to continue walking. 📹 Watch Watch the moment Trump’s watch party realized he won the primary: 📹 Video Vivek had some fangirls: Ramaswamy took on the risers for several media interviews. A group of young Republican fans hovered nearby and called out to him. |
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‘How the Fani Willis allegations could hit the Trump Georgia case’: |
There have been allegations that Fulton County, Ga., District Attorney Fani Willis (D) is having a romance with a prosecutor she appointed in former President Trump’s 2020 election interference case.
The Hill’s Ella Lee explains how these allegations have created a whirlwind of controversy surrounding her. Trump’s allies have latched onto the allegations as evidence of prosecutorial misconduct. Keep in mind: “The special prosecutor’s estranged wife has also raised the accusation in their ongoing divorce proceedings in which Willis is fighting being deposed.”
💡 What it means for the case itself: “But despite the political firestorm in recent weeks, the affair allegation will likely have little impact on the case itself, particularly because there are no laws in place that would require Willis or Wade to step back from the case.” Read the explainer |
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🥜 Celebrate: Today is National Peanut Butter Day!
🛳️ Have you heard of the massive new cruise ship?: Royal Caribbean’s new ship, Icon of the Seas, is departing on its maiden voyage on Saturday. It’s the largest cruise ship and includes the largest waterpark at sea and eight neighborhoods. (People)
🎾 If you’re watching the Australian Open: “Why Is Coco Gauff So Tough to Play? Those Who’ve Faced Her Explain.” (The New York Times)
🎙️ Jon Stewart is back at ‘The Daily Show’: Variety reports that Jon Stewart is returning to host “The Daily Show” on Mondays through the 2024 election.
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The House and Senate are in. President Biden is in Washington, D.C., and Vice President Harris is headed to California. (all times Eastern) |
1:30 p.m.: Biden speaks at a political event at the Marriott Marquis in Washington, D.C. 2:05 p.m.: Harris leaves for Los Angeles.
2:15 p.m.: Two Senate confirmation votes. Another Senate vote is scheduled around 6:15 p.m. 🗓️ Today’s agenda 3:30 p.m.: Biden receives the President’s Daily Brief.
8:40 p.m.: Harris speaks at a campaign reception in Manhattan Beach, Calif.
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I’ll leave you with this. There is absolutely nothing to see here. Just a bunch of sheep hanging out. Again, nothing to see.
H/t to The Hill’s Emily Martin for finding this video of … nothing happening. |
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