Morning Report — How will New Hampshire change ’24 GOP expectations? 

by Alexis Simendinger and Kristina Karisch - 01/23/24 6:32 AM ET

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New Hampshire primary voters enjoy blowing smoke at pollsters. They savor their state’s reputation for picking presidents and sizing up the national mood. They turn out in coffee shops and meeting halls to make their own forensic assessments of politicians.

GOP challenger Nikki Haley began with a win this morning in tiny Dixville Notch, N.H., where residents traditionally agree to fill out their ballots at midnight and she swept with six votes. Some said they were surprised.

The Granite State’s GOP primary ballot will have more than two names on it today, but the conventional wisdom about a two-person slugfest featuring former President Trump and Haley has pointed to a Trump victory.

That’s according to the latest tracking polls, New Hampshire voter interviews, commentary from anti-Trump analysts and the measured expectations uttered by Haley’s top surrogates, including New Hampshire Republican Gov. Chris Sununu.

“Nikki’s the one who’s been surging. … If she can win, that would be amazing. It doesn’t have to happen,” Sununu told Bloomberg TV during a Sunday interview. “Showing a stronger performance than was in Iowa, that’s the important piece.”

▪ The Hill: Haley’s odds grow longer.

▪ The Hill: What are some of the pundits expecting in New Hampshire?

▪ The Hill: Haley vs. Trump: Five things to watch.

A likely question by Tuesday night is whether the 2024 general election effectively begins Wednesday or whether Haley, if she finishes second, takes her time deciding if she has a path to assemble enough delegates for the nomination. Next month’s South Carolina primary in her home state so far looks like a Trump cakewalk, according to surveys.

NEW HAMPSHIRE’S ELECTORATE has been described as Haley’s best shot to upend the GOP Trump juggernaut. Even if she finishes behind the former president, it will matter how wide the gap. If she opts to stay in the race, she will need to weather Trump’s assaults and what she complains are his “lies,” wrestle with Trump’s loyal base and explain beyond her familiar script why she’s the conservative candidate, rather than a former president, best equipped to beat President Biden.

Former Republican New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, the candidate this cycle who relished explaining why Trump, in his view, is “unfit” for the Oval Office, was heard on a hot mic predicting as he suspended his campaign that Haley “is gonna get smoked.” Denigrating Trump did not improve Christie’s standing among Republican voters.

There are 22 delegates in play in New Hampshire, and it’s not a winner-take-all state. Any candidate who receives more than 10 percent of the statewide primary vote will gain delegates, so Haley is likely to be awarded some even if she loses to Trump. Above the 10 percent threshold, delegates are awarded proportionally. Iowa had 40 delegates in play and Trump captured 20. Haley received seven. Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, who suspended his campaign Sunday, picked up 8. To get the Republican nomination, a candidate needs 1,215 delegates.

WOULD HALEY STAY IN THE RACE if she loses in New Hampshire? She wants to avoid being crushed in her home state next month, where the Republican governor, both GOP senators and plenty of House Republicans endorsed Trump. But Sununu has suggested Haley could hang on through Super Tuesday in early March.

On Monday, Haley’s campaign boasted that grassroots donors contributed more than $500,000 online after DeSantis exited the field (CNN). 

SOME VOTER VOICES:

▪ CNN: “Trump does not support the Green New Deal or the wind farms and I know that he backs us fishermen,” explained Andrew Konchek, interviewed in Portsmouth, N.H. Konchek sees a vote for Trump as a vote to save his job. 

▪ Politico magazine: “Our system needs to be broken, and he is the man to do it,” New Hampshire retired Army lieutenant colonel and IT security company project manager Ted Johnson says, explaining his support for Trump after considering Haley. “And trust me, the guy’s a pig, he’s a womanizer — arrogant a—–e. But I need somebody that’s going to go in and lead, and I need somebody that’s going to take care of the average guy.”

3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY:

▪ The Supreme Court sided with the Biden administration on Monday and cleared the way for Border Patrol agents to remove razor wire Texas officials installed along a busy stretch of the southern border until the legality of the barriers is resolved in court.

▪ Today the U.S. hosts a virtual monthly meeting among 50 nations in support of Ukraine. The Pentagon for the first time is legislatively out of funding for weapons and supplies to contribute to Kyiv’s defense against Russia, awaiting a supplemental funding decision by Congress. Since Russia invaded, U.S. security assistance to Ukraine has totaled more than $44.2 billion. 

▪ 🎥 It’s awards season and Oscar nominations will be announced at 8:30 a.m. by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Favorites: “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer.” 

LEADING THE DAY

© The Associated Press / Will Weissert | Democrats in New Hampshire are running a write-in campaign for President Biden after he announced he was skipping the state’s primary because it doesn’t comply with party rules.

MORE POLITICS

STRATEGISTS EXPECT BIDEN TO WIN the New Hampshire Democratic primary, where he does not appear on the ballot, thanks to a grassroots write-in campaign, but eyes will be on how his opponents, challengers Marianne Williamson and Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), line up in the vote tallies. Phillips’s campaign ruled out a run outside the Democratic Party when asked Monday about a possible No Labels ticket. But even a strong showing by either candidate wouldn’t mean much, strategists said.

“I don’t think it really amounts to anything. And quite frankly, one I don’t know what exceeding expectations is for them either, but whatever it is, what do you do with it?” said New Hampshire Democratic strategist Jim Demers. “Because the process that lies ahead, most names you hear, have no organization in any of the upcoming states.”

The New Hampshire Democratic primary will be a contest without precedent. More than a dozen candidates will appear on the Democratic ballot in the state, but Biden will not — due to a reshuffling of the primary schedule that now has South Carolina going first among Democratic nominating states. He said the move would allow more voters of color to have a greater influence in selecting the nominee than the overwhelmingly white electorates of Iowa — which caucused on Jan. 15 — and New Hampshire. The Democratic National Committee followed Biden’s recommendations, but the Granite State, which has a law requiring its primary to be the first in the nation, refused to comply. 

Biden decided as a result to not file for the New Hampshire primary in compliance with the DNC’s rules, and, critically, the DNC has decided that no delegates will be awarded for the state — meaning it will not directly affect the math of winning the nomination. 

AFTER NEW HAMPSHIRE, anti-Trump Republicans will be left asking, “What’s next?” In The Memo, The Hill’s Niall Stanage outlines how Republicans opposed to Trump are reckoning with the near-certain likelihood he will become the GOP nominee — and what that means for them.

2024 ROUNDUP:

▪ In New Hampshire, deepfake robocalls purporting to be Biden’s voice injected artificial intelligence into the 2024 primary season, triggering renewed calls from Public Citizen and other advocates to the Federal Election Commission and Congress to take immediate action to erect legal guardrails against the latest form of election interference and misinformation. Granite State voters received robocalls using Biden’s manipulated voice or a digital creation that told them not to vote in today’s primary. State officials say they’re investigating.

▪ Vermont and Virginia this month introduced regulatory legislative approaches to generative AI that could guide the rest of the country, Pluribus News reports.

▪ In the first known AI restriction by OpenAI, creator of ChatGPT, tied to a candidate or campaign, the company banned a developer of a bot that imitates Democratic presidential candidate Phillips, noting violations of its policies. 

▪ Biden issued a campaign promise in 2020 and now boasts of making it possible for 3.7 million student loan borrowers to receive college debt forgiveness. For a variety of reasons, a small fraction of the 44.5 million Americans with student debt have received relief.

▪ RIP: Dexter Scott King, 62, the youngest son of the late Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. and the late Coretta Scott King, died Monday after a battle with prostate cancer.

WHERE AND WHEN

The House meets for a pro forma session Thursday at 3 p.m.

The Senate will meet at 10 a.m.

The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 10 a.m. Biden will lead a reelection campaign event in Manassas, Va., at 4:30 p.m. to champion national abortion rights. The president and first lady Jill Biden will return to the White House tonight.

Vice President Harris will join Biden in Manassas, Va., to campaign for national abortion and reproductive rights.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Africa much of this week. Today he is in Côte d’Ivoire and Nigeria. Blinken had a morning meeting with employees and families of the U.S. Embassy Abidjan, followed by a meeting with Ivorian President Allasane Ouattara. Blinken met with African Development Bank Group President Akinwumi Adesina, followed by a morning event about food security at the headquarters of Africa Rice. The secretary traveled to Nigeria and met with American embassy staff and families in Abuja in the evening, followed by a meeting with Nigerian President Bola Tinubu. The secretary tonight holds a joint press conference with Nigerian Foreign Minister Yusuf Maitama Tuggar in Abuja.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen plans a bilateral meeting at 10 a.m. with Ukraine Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal to discuss Ukraine’s budgetary needs. Yellen and IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel at 11 a.m. plan a call with the news media to unveil customer-focused improvements for taxpayers when it comes to government announcements. 

The Miller Center at the University of Virginia will host an in-person and virtual panel discussion at 1 p.m. about presidential transitions. Speakers include former Trump White House deputy chief of staff Christopher Liddell, author of “Year Zero: The Five-year Presidency”; author and presidency scholar Martha Joynt Kumar, director of the White House Transition Project; and David Marchick, dean at American University and former director of the Center for Presidential Transition at the nonprofit Partnership for Public Service. Information and registration are HERE.   

The White House daily press briefing is scheduled at 12:15 p.m.

ZOOM IN

© The Associated Press / Ronen Zvulun, Reuters | Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv early this month.

INTERNATIONAL

ISRAEL, UNDER INTENSE DOMESTIC PRESSURE Monday, proposed a two-month pause in fighting in Gaza in exchange for the release of all hostages, Axios reported. The Israeli war Cabinet 10 days ago approved the parameters of a new proposal for a hostage deal, which differ from past aspects of ideas rejected by Hamas. The proposal doesn’t include an agreement to end the war, but it would be the longest period of a pause in fighting that Israel has offered Hamas since Oct. 7. A U.S. adviser is headed to Egypt and Qatar for talks aimed at negotiations to get a deal to free an estimated 130 surviving hostages and the bodies of hostage casualties from Gaza in exchange for set swaps of Palestinian prisoners.

Israel said 24 of its soldiers were killed in Gaza on Monday, marking the worst single-day death toll for the military since the war against Hamas began in October (Bloomberg News).

Supporters and relatives of hostages Monday burst into the Israeli Parliament to demand government action to secure captives’ release from Gaza. “You will not sit here while they are dying there,” said signs carried by Israeli demonstrators, who burst into a meeting of the Finance Committee (The New York Times). Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the weekend rejected what he said were conditions proposed by Hamas for the release of the remaining hostages held in Gaza, including the end of the war and the withdrawal of Israeli forces. 

The Guardian: One of the EU’s most senior diplomats criticized the Israeli foreign minister for not properly engaging with a summit in Brussels designed to pave the way for a peace plan in the Middle East.

IRAN IS “VERY DIRECTLY INVOLVED” in ship attacks that Yemen’s Houthi rebels have carried out during the Israel-Hamas war, Vice Adm. Brad Cooper, the U.S. Navy’s top Mideast commander, told The Associated Press on Monday. The U.S. and United Kingdom carried out large-scale military strikes on Monday against eight sites in Yemen controlled by Houthi militants, signaling that the Biden administration intends to wage a sustained campaign against the Iran-backed group that has disrupted traffic in vital international sea lanes (The New York Times).

▪ Politico: The Houthis are seeking more Iranian weapons to step up Red Sea attacks, intelligence shows.

▪ NBC News: The Navy on Monday identified Special Operator First Class Christopher J. Chambers, 37, and Special Operator Second Class Nathan Gage Ingram, 27, as the two SEALs who were declared dead after they were lost at sea during a nighttime raid near Somalia seizing “a vessel illegally transporting advanced lethal aid from Iran to resupply Houthi forces in Yemen.”

TALIBAN RULES: The United Nations published a quarterly report Monday detailing concerns about the human rights situation in Afghanistan, specifically the restrictions of rights for women, noting that the Taliban “continue to enforce and promulgate restrictions on women’s rights to work, education and freedom of movement” (The Hill).

ELSEWHERE

© The Associated Press / Elizabeth Williams | Former President Trump and his lawyer appeared Monday at his defamation trial in New York City before it was suspended because of an ill juror and COVID exposure reported by Trump’s attorney, whose parents are ill.

TRUMP WORLD 

Author E. Jean Carroll’s defamation trial in New York City was suspended Monday because a juror reported being ill and Trump’s lawyer, Alina Habba, said she was exposed to COVID while visiting her parents. She told the court she tested negative but was experiencing symptoms. The proceedings will resume Wednesday, pending everyone’s good health, Judge Lewis Kaplan announced (ABC News and The Hill).

Georgia: A judge on Monday ordered the unsealing of a divorce case involving Fulton County special prosecutor Nathan Wade, who is accused of having an inappropriate relationship with county District Attorney Fani Willis (D) amid a high-profile criminal racketeering trial targeting Trump and alleged co-defendants (The Hill). 

Judge Henry Thompson on Monday paused Willis’s scheduled deposition in the divorce proceedings of her colleague. He declined to absolve her from being deposed in the future, however. “Only after I hear what Mr. Wade has to say do I think I can make a determination of whether the proposed opponent has any unique knowledge about these issues,” Thompson said.

CONGRESS

Lead Democratic negotiator Sen. Chris Murphy (Conn.) said Monday that bipartisan border talks are “largely done” and have advanced to the Senate Appropriations Committee, signaling negotiations are heading toward a potential final phase.

“Our work is largely done,” Murphy said. “The conversation has really moved over to Appropriations. So, there’s no reason why we couldn’t begin consideration this week.”

Murphy’s comments are among the most optimistic from negotiators in weeks, as Republicans have conditioned further aid to Ukraine on the inclusion of border policy changes as part of the White House’s $106 billion national security supplemental request (Politico). Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), one of the lead negotiators, indicated last week that a deal could come together imminently, but he said Monday that an agreement might be days away still. A vote this week, Lankford said, would be “a stretch.”

Lankford, Murphy and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), have led talks alongside top administration officials for weeks, with all of those involved noting the complexity of writing an immigration measure. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) on Monday took a more cautious tone than Murphy. 

“We remain hopeful, but it’s certainly not a done deal yet. There are a handful of issues that have not yet been agreed to,” Schumer said on the Senate floor. “On something as complicated as the border, it’s not just what we do that matters, it’s how we do it. So, negotiations are not done yet.”

▪ The Hill: Poll: Immigration overtakes inflation as the top voter concern.

▪ The Hill: The glaring absence of Hispanic or immigrant representation in bipartisan Senate border policy negotiations has gone largely overlooked, despite repeated appeals to diversify the voices at the table. 

▪ The Hill: The simmering standoff between Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is continuing over two McConnell-backed nominees to the Federal Trade Commission and National Transportation Safety Board.

OPINION

■ Biden, Trump and the presidency in play, by Timothy L. O’Brien, executive editor, Bloomberg Opinion. 

■ Decline is a choice — America can’t return to isolationist policies, by Todd Young and Jerry Hendrix, opinion contributors, The Hill.

THE CLOSER

© The Associated Press / Christian Chavez | Benito, a 4-year-old giraffe, moved 1,200 miles beginning Monday from a zoo in northern Mexico to an animal park in central Mexico to improve his environment and provide some giraffe company.

And finally … 🦒 Mexico-based Benito the giraffe, age 4, embarked Monday on a 50-hour journey (head sticking out of a customized crate loaded Sunday night on a flatbed truck) to seek warmth and perhaps a mate 1,200 miles away (The Associated Press). 

Animal activists secured Benito’s departure from the cold and loneliness of a zoo along Mexico’s northern border in Ciudad Juarez to take up residence at Africam Safari park in Puebla state in central Mexico that has a friendlier environment. Bonus detail: In addition to warmer temps, there are three female giraffes waiting at the animal park to say hello.

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