The Hill’s 12:30 Report — Five seats to watch in the battle to control the Senate

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–> A midday take on what’s happening in politics and how to have a sense of humor about it.* 

*Ha. Haha. Hahah. Sniff. Haha. Sniff. Ha–breaks down crying hysterically.

TALK OF THE MORNING 

5 Senate seats to watch next year:

The battle for control of the Senate is already underway in earnest, more than a year out from the 2024 election. 

Democrats are hoping to keep their hold on the upper chamber — if not build on it — but Republicans are plotting to take over the Upper Chamber. 

The Hill’s Al Weaver reports on where things stand: “Democrats are trying to play defense in a number of red-leaning states to hold on to their one-seat majority, while Republicans fight recruiting battles in several states to give them the best shot at winning a majority.” 

Weaver also notes the big outstanding factors in the matchups: “What will Biden’s standing be in the states next year? And will the GOP nominate (former President) Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis or someone else next year?” 

From West Virginia to Montana, here is Weaver’s midsummer breakdown of the five races you should be watching. 

RELATED: 

Steele slams GOP for not having ‘our s—t together’: Former Republican National Committee chair Michael Steele had some harsh words for Republicans recently, remarking that he thought they would have more power in Congress if the GOP “had our s–t together.” 

Here’s the convo that took place on former Republican presidential candidate Joe Walsh’s podcast “White Flag.” 

“Do Democrats understand how freaking lucky they’ve been that the Republican Party is so bats–t, Trumpy crazy?” Walsh said, referencing the former president and 2024 candidate. 

“I don’t think they recognize that if we had our s–t together, this wouldn’t even be close,” Steele replied. 

Steele went on to theorize that Republicans could hold “a seven or eight seat majority” in the Senate and a stronger lead in the House. (The Hill) 

It’s Monday, July 3. I’m Elizabeth Crisp, filling in for Cate, with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here. Send me your tips: ecrisp@digital-stage.thehill.com and follow me on Twitter @elizabethcrisp. 

PROGRAMMING NOTE: The 12:30 report will be off Tuesday for the Fourth of July, but we’ll be back on Wednesday. 

🎓 Education 

Former top Trump aide threatens lawsuits if schools continue affirmative action policies:

Former White House adviser Stephen Miller has issued a warning to law schools: He’ll pursue legal action if they violate the Supreme Court’s recent ruling on affirmative action. 

Miller’s America First Legal conservative nonprofit sent a letter to 200 law schools across the country to notify them. 

“If they tried to violate, circumvent or bypass, subvert or otherwise program around that ruling, we are going to take them to court. We are going to hold them to account,” he wrote on Twitter. (The Hill) 

AOC says Biden’s student loan plan isn’t enough:

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) took aim this weekend at President Biden’s plan for student loan interest to restart during his proposed “on-ramp” period, after the Supreme Court shot down his plan for a limited debt forgiveness program. 

“People should not be incurring interest during this 12-month on-ramp period. So, I highly urge the administration to consider suspending those interest payments,” she said during an interview on CNN. 

Ocasio-Cortez also said she believes the administration has the authority to forgive student debt in a workaround under the Higher Education Act. (The Hill) 

👑 In the White House 

Biden, King Charles will visit next week in England: 

President Biden is set to meet with King Charles III while in Europe next week. 

The president will also meet with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak during his stay in England. Sunak and Biden have had multiple meetups this year — most recently when Sunak visited the White House last month. 

The meeting with King Charles III will be the first after his coronation in May. (The Hill) 

🏃 2024 

Trump previously warned a president under indictment would ‘grind government to a halt’:

A president under felony indictment would “grind government to a halt” and create an “unprecedented Constitutional crisis.” So said former President Trump … about his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton during the 2016 campaign. 

What a difference seven years makes. Now Trump is seeking the 2024 GOP nomination while under federal indictment over his handling of classified records. 

CNN’s KFile dug up the remarks from Trump rallies in Nevada and North Carolina in November 2016. 

“We could very well have a sitting president under felony indictment and ultimately a criminal trial,” Trump said at the Reno, Nev., rally on Nov. 5. “It would grind government to a halt.” 

In Concord, N.C., two days earlier, Trump said of Clinton: “If she were to win, it would create an unprecedented Constitutional crisis that would cripple the operations of our government.” 

At the time, then-FBI director James Comey had announced that an investigation into Clinton’s private email server and her handling of classified information would be re-opened. Clinton was never indicted but ultimately lost the election to Trump. 

Trump, who is seen as the frontrunner for the GOP, is currently facing federal charges over the discovery of hundreds of documents — some classified — that he took to his Mar-a-Lago resort after he left the White House in 2021. It’s not the only legal issue for the former president, as he slugs it out in courtrooms in multiple states. (The Hill) 

🚨 In other news 

DC businesses hit with explosive devices, Molotov cocktail: 

Three local businesses were rocked by explosive devices and a Molotov cocktail Sunday, according to DC authorities.  

The Metropolitan Police Department said in a news release that the attacks took place in just a 15-minute span in Northeast D.C. 

An explosive device was first detonated around 4:30 a.m. on the sidewalk near a Truist Bank ATM, causing damage, authorities said.  

Minutes later, an explosive device went off on the sidewalk in front of the Nike Store, causing damage.  

Then nine minutes later, the suspect threw a Molotov cocktail-style object at the Safeway grocery, again causing damage.  

Authorities said the suspect fled in a vehicle described as a gold/champagne-colored Acura TL with Maryland license plates.  

The MPD and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives Washington Field Division are offering up to $20,000 for information that leads to the arrest and conviction of anyone involved. (The Hill) 

🐥 Notable tweets 

Top Texas BBQ from the NYT? Cornyn is skeptical: 

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) is viewing a New York Times roundup of top Texas barbecue joints with some skepticism. 

“According to the NYT. You have been warned,” Cornyn tweeted with a link to the story. 

The article isn’t negative. It even calls Cornyn’s state “the country’s ultimate barbecue destination.” 

Also of note: Despite Cornyn’s apprehension, the authors of the piece do have some cred on the topic! Brett Anderson is a noted New Orleans food critic, who the article points out took several trips to Texas in recent months to try different barbecue spots, and Priya Krishna was raised in Dallas. 

DC’s biggest holiday is here … : 

It’s beginning to look a lot like … the Fourth of July! 

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) showed off the House’s holiday decorations — several massive American flags hung out front ahead of Independence Day.  

“God bless America!” he tweeted with the photo. 

⏱ On tap 

The House and Senate are out this week. President Biden is at Camp David, and Vice President Harris is in California. 

🎆 LOOK AHEAD: Biden will return to the White House to celebrate Independence Day with an event for members of the military, veterans and their families on the South Lawn on Tuesday. 

✈️ COMING UP: Biden is scheduled to visit the U.K., Lithuania and Finland next week for diplomatic meetings. 

📺 What to watch 

• NOTHING! Enjoy the outdoors, if you can beat the rain, but stay hydrated because it’s expected to be another scorcher. Indoor alternatives: Check out a museum or catch a movie. 

🍨 In lighter news 

Here’s the scoop: July is National Ice Cream Month! (Because seriously … Why limit the celebration to just one day?)  President Reagan declared July as National Ice Cream Month in 1984, following a Congressional resolution, touting it as “the perfect dessert and snack food” and encouraging people to celebrate the month with “appropriate ceremonies and activities.” 

The third Sunday of the month, in this case July 16, will be National Ice Cream Day, so feel free to double up on excuses for an extra treat. 

And because you made it this far, check out this video of a dog living the life — especially in this summer heat.