A large majority of Hispanic voters in battleground districts are “almost certain” to turn out to vote in November, according to research conducted for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus’s (CHC) campaign arm, Bold PAC.
According to the research, 78 percent of Hispanic registered voters are “almost certain” to vote and 48 percent are “extremely enthusiastic.” Pollsters also noted that “with an average enthusiasm rating of 7.83 out of 10, there are still opportunities to further generate voter enthusiasm.”
Latino Decisions polled Hispanic registered voters in battleground districts in Arizona, California, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico and Texas and presented its finding in an internal memo reviewed by The Hill.
“The stakes of November’s elections are high and we are not taking anything or anyone for granted. That’s why the DCCC is building on our partnership with BOLD PAC to make aggressive investments to engage and earn the support of Latino voters in communities across the country,” said DCCC Chairwoman Cheri Bustos (Ill.) in a statement.
The memo shows Hispanic voters in those battleground districts are responsive to issues that Democrats traditionally emphasize, particularly health care.
Affordable, quality health care has consistently polled as a top issue for Hispanic voters.
According to the memo, “health care is the single most mobilizing message” for Latinos, who said they are equally likely to favor expansion of the Affordable Care Act or creating new plans to expand coverage.
And 65 percent of Hispanic voters see President Trump’s tax cuts as having mainly benefited the wealthy and corporations, according to the research, somewhat undercutting his economic message toward Latinos.
In 2018, Democrats overwhelmingly won Hispanic voters with record midterm turnout, in part by painting the 2017 tax cuts as benefiting only the rich. In that election, Democrats also promoted the message that Republicans are “hostile” toward Latinos, citing the administration’s policies and rhetoric on immigration.
“We cannot expect people to turn out if we do not put in the time to listen to them and address their top priorities. Our research investments will ensure that Latino voters are both heard and reflected in our strategy to protect and expand the most diverse House Majority in our nation’s history,” said Bustos.
That message is likely to resonate again in 2020, according to the memo, which says “the Washington Republican brand is badly damaged in the eyes of Latino voters,” but cautions there is still space for Democrats to actively engage Latino voters.
Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas) applauded the report, saying that investments in Hispanic voter research could help Democrats hold on to their House majority.
“The road to ensuring we protect and expand our House majority will run through Latino voters and we must give them a reason to vote for us. Democrats’ presence on the ground is helping bolster the important work of a number of grassroots organizations and leaders who have long been engaging with the Latino community. This investment is vital to changing the electorate and flipping swing districts in Texas and across the country,” said Escobar, who represents the freshman class in leadership.
The report found Trump’s approval ratings among Latinos vary geographically, but overall 65 percent of Hispanics disapprove of the president while 35 percent approve. Among Nevada Hispanic voters, for example, Trump scored better with only a 56 percent disapproval rate, while that rate is 63 percent in Texas and 73 percent in Arizona.
The research also found that Latino voters are open to multiple messages on immigration reform, including a comprehensive immigration reform package.
“The road to retaining and expanding our Democratic majority runs through the Latino community. That’s why CHC Bold PAC is proud to once again partner with the DCCC to conduct critical research on our nation’s growing and diverse Latino community in key battleground states like Florida, Arizona, and Texas,” said Bold PAC Chairman Rep. Tony Cárdenas (D-Calif).
“By making these investments on Latino voters early, Democrats are taking important steps to mobilize Latinos across the country and get them to the polls this November,” he added.
The memo concluded that Democrats should focus on health care, immigration and the economy to keep Hispanic voters incentivized to vote.
“To generate further enthusiasm from Latino voters, candidates must be relatable to the working class, culturally competent, and use their presence to show Latinos that they care about the community,” reads the memo.
Latino Decisions is a Democratic polling firm that specializes in researching Hispanic voter intent. The firm recently conducted polls that accurately predicted record Hispanic turnout in early primary and caucus states.