While Latinos comprise 17 percent of the U.S. population, only six percent of the members of Congress are Hispanic.
Hispanic leaders think those numbers could rise this fall, however.
{mosads}In the Senate, former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto, a Democrat, is seeking to win retiring Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid’s seat. She’d be the fourth Hispanic senator.
The number of Senate Hispanics could also fall depending on what happens in Florida, where Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) is thinking of reversing course and running for reelection.
In the House, Hispanic Democrats are favored to win safe seats in California and New York, which will almost certainly mean more than 29 House members wil be Hispanic in the next Congress.
Rhetoric from the presidential race is sure to weigh heavily on down-ballot races, particularly as a sharp divide between presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump and Hispanic voters has festered into open animosity.
A Washington Post/ABC poll released Wednesday found that 89 percent of Hispanic voters have an unfavorable image of Trump.
Here’s a look at some of the key races that will determine how many Latinos serve in the next Congress.
CALIFORNIA:
In the Senate race to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer in California, Rep. Loretta Sánchez (D-Calif.) made history by becoming the first Latina candidate for a Senate seat representing the state. But she faces an uphill battle against state Attorney General Kamala Harris, a fellow Democrat who has the backing of national and state party officials and who received more votes than Sánchez in the June 7 primary.
A new USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll has Harris leading Sánchez, 47 to 22 percent. Harris leads among all groups, except Latinos, which Sánchez leads by 15 points. Latino voters largely supported Sánchez in the primary, but that group represents just 17 percent of likely voters and Sánchez will need more support from other groups, including independents and Republicans.
Prospects are brighter for other Latino candidates in California, and several have a good chance of adding to the number of Hispanics in the lower chamber.
Former state Senator Lou Correa (D) won the primary earlier this month in the race to replace Sánchez. While Correa faces a Republican rival in a district that was once a G.O.P. bastion represented by conservative Congressman Bob Dornan, Democrats now lead by 21 points in the district.
Newcomers Nanette Barragán and Salud Carbajal, Democrats competing in districts currently represented by non-Latinos, are also potential Latino pickups in November.
Barragán faces a tough general election fight against fellow Democrat State Sen. Isadore Hall. Carbajal easily outpaced his primary opponents in a safe Democratic district, winning endorsements from top House Democrats including Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi.
In Nevada, state Senator Rubén Kihuen, a Democrat born in Mexico and raised in Las Vegas, defeated seven other candidates earlier this week and will now face first-term incumbent Republican Congressman Crescent Hardy in November. The Cook Political Report has that district as “leaning Democratic” and the party is expected to pour resources into the race to back Kihuen in an attempt to move that seat to their side of the aisle.
Nevada Democrats also have their eye on the seat being vacated by Reid.
Reid is backing Masto, who could become the first Latina to serve in the U.S. Senate. Both parties and other groups are pouring funds into the race, which analysts consider a complete tossup. But Democratic voters, including a growing number of Latinos, outnumber Republicans in the state.
NEW YORK:
In New York, the Democratic race for the open seat left by retiring Rep. Charles Rangel pits two Latino former state legislators – Dominican-American Adriano Espaillat, and Adam Clayton Powell IV, son of the legislator who held the seat before Rangel.
This race is a reprise for both Powell – born and raised in Puerto Rico by his Puerto Rican mother – and Espaillat, as the two challenged Rangel for the seat in the past. Espaillat nearly unseated Rangel in 2012.
A third Latino in the race, Dominican-American Guillermo Linares, is trailing in the polls in an already crowded field of ten candidates. The primary is June 28.
FLORIDA:
In Florida, state Senator Darren Soto (D) is vying for the congressional seat being vacated by Democratic Congressman Alan Grayson, who is running for the Senate. Soto has received multiple endorsements from prominent Florida politicians, but faces a complicated four-way primary
Soto faces some hefty competition, including from Grayson’s own wife, Dena.
In another congressional race in the state, Republicans are hoping to pick up the seat they once held and which is now being vacated by Democratic Congressman Patrick Murphy, who decided to not seek re-election and instead jumped into the Senate race.
School board member Rebecca Negrón (R) is among the top fundraisers for that seat, and both parties are putting significant resources into the district race. The primary is August 30.
Rubio’s decision to reconsider running for re-election has thrown a wrency into the race.
“I’ll go home this week and I’ll have time with my family. If there’s a change in status, I’ll be sure to let everyone know,” the former GOP presidential candidate told reporters on Capitol Hill. Rubio had previously said he would not run for reelection, but party leaders, including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), have urged him to reconsider.
Rubio faces a June 24 deadline to decide.
López-Cantera is one of the candidates running for Rubio’s seat, but he says that he asked Rubio to reconsider and that he would step aside should Rubio get back in.
“If Marco decides to enter this race, I will not be filing the paperwork to run for the U.S. Senate,” López-Cantera said in a statement.
Only one Latino member of Congress is retiring this year, Rep. Rubén Hinojosa (D-Texas).
A newcomer, Attorney Vicente González (D), faces Republican Tim Westley and Green Party candidate Vanessa Tijerina in the race to replace Hinojosa in November, but González is projected to keep the seat in Democratic Party hands.
TEXAS:
Only one Latino member of Congress is retiring this year, Rep. Rubén Hinojosa (D-Texas). Attorney Vicente González faces Republican Tim Westley and Green Party candidate Vanessa Tijerina in the race to replace Hinojosa in November, but González is expected to keep the seat in Democratic Party hands.
The 23rd district is a toss-up between Rep. Will Hurd (R) and the incumbent he unseated in 2014, Democrat Pete Gallego. The majority-Hispanic district has flipped parties every election since redistricting in 2003, but Hurd is the first non-Latino to represent the 23rd in its present form.