On The Trail: Trump-inspired challengers target GOP governors

Former President Trump has remade much of the Republican Party in his image by nurturing and promoting a coterie of bomb-throwing performance artists in the House and Senate more interested in owning the libs than advancing legislation.

Now, his allies and imitators are coming for the ranks of Republican governors, a bevy of whom face MAGA-inspired challengers in primary elections next year.

In ordinary times, a governor running for reelection is one of the surest bets in American politics; they almost never lose. It is even rarer for a governor to lose a bid for renomination, and when that does happen the victim is virtually always a governor who has stepped into the job as a replacement for a predecessor, rather than one who won election him- or herself.

In the last half century, only 21 governors have lost renomination, according to Eric Ostermeier, a political scientist at the University of Minnesota and author of the Smart Politics blog — or just 5.4 percent of the 391 incumbents who ran for new terms. The last time two governors lost renomination in the same election year was 2004, when Missouri Gov. Bob Holden (D) lost to state Auditor Claire McCaskill (D) and Utah Gov. Olene Walker (R) lost to Jon Huntsman (R).

But this year — and in these anything-but-ordinary times — the chaotic primaries on the Republican side are more about the man most GOP voters venerate than any issue for which the party stands.

“During the Trump era, incumbents have to thread the needle between defaulting to the traditional conservative ideology on which they build their careers and navigating the shifting political winds (and whims) under Trump and his version of conservatism,” Ostermeier said in an email. “Any misstep by an incumbent — particularly if viewed as a slight to Trump himself — opens up a pathway for a GOP challenger to contend for the seat.”

Some of the contenders bear Trump’s explicit imprimatur, in the form of a valuable endorsement that will feature prominently in their paid advertising and star in their stump speeches. Those candidates have offered the most explicit embraces of Trump’s fantasies about the 2020 elections or the coronavirus pandemic.

Former Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.) entered the race against Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) by blaming Kemp for Perdue’s own loss and then repeating already-disproven falsehoods about the presidential contest in a lawsuit he filed more than a year after the election was decided.

In Idaho, Trump announced his support for Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin (R), a virus-denier best known for a photo of her sitting in the driver’s seat of a truck holding a gun and a Bible, but not the wheel.

Trump’s support for McGeachin came as a surprise in Idaho political circles; the former president had hosted her rival, Gov. Brad Little (R), and singled him out for praise at an event at Mar-a-Lago just five days before Trump endorsed McGeachin.

Trump also backed former Massachusetts state Rep. Geoff Diehl (R), who announced his campaign against Gov. Charlie Baker (R) earlier this year. Baker, the one Republican who most observers believe can win statewide office in a solidly blue state, said this month he would not seek a third term.

Other challengers are merely offering a Trump impression they believe voters will buy, hoping that their attacks on incumbents who are perceived as disloyal to the former president will earn his attention.

In Ohio, former Rep. Jim Renacci (R) has castigated Gov. Mike DeWine (R) for imposing lockdowns meant to slow the spread of the coronavirus and for taking measures in the interest of public health that President Biden praised. Renacci last week chose as a running mate a filmmaker who in 2020 produced a fawning documentary called “The Trump I Know.”

Former U.S. Ambassador to Slovenia Lindy Blanchard (R) failed to earn Trump’s endorsement for a U.S. Senate seat — Trump backed Rep. Mo Brooks (R), an ally who appeared at the Jan. 6 rally that preceded the insurrection at the Capitol — so this week she kicked off a challenge to Gov. Kay Ivey (R).

Ivey’s perceived slight against Trump was a decision to cancel a planned rally at a park that honors the USS Alabama. That decision, made by the chairman of the park commission, not Ivey, came after Republicans raised concerns that the rally — featuring a former president widely expected to run for office again — would turn political against the backdrop of a memorial to soldiers who fought in World War II.

Trump has endorsed Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) for reelection, but that has not stopped some of his most ardent admirers from attacking Abbott — one of the most conservative governors in America — as a liberal squish. Among the contenders are former Rep. Allen West (R), who headed the Texas Republican Party after moving from Florida after he lost reelection; former state Sen. Don Huffines (R), who has made a priority of preserving Confederate statues; and Chad Prather, best known for headlining the Kings of Cowtown World Comedy Tour.

Even some governors who have allied themselves with Trump, like South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R) and Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R), who won his first term as the conservative challenger to a more centrist and establishment-backed candidate, have drawn rivals who accuse them of insufficient conservatism.

Republicans who back the sitting incumbents say they are, for the most part, unconcerned with the rivals vying to oust their incumbents.

“In the era of complete Democrat control in Washington, Republican governors are leading the party forward with successful conservative policies and a willingness to fight back against Biden’s failed agenda,” said Jesse Hunt, a spokesman for the Republican Governors Association, which supports incumbents. “Their efforts are widely appreciated in their respective states and it’ll be key to why they’ll be re-elected next November.”

And the assault on incumbents is not unique to the Republican side: Two Democrats, both of whom were elevated to office when their predecessors quit, face primary challenges this year.

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) lost one rival this week when Attorney General Letitia James (D) dropped out of the race, though she faces several other Democrats. Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee (D) faces challenges from both the sitting secretary of state and the sitting state treasurer.

But the upheaval on the Republican side, caused first by Trump and then by the pandemic, has attracted scores of copycats and acolytes in states where incumbent governors would rather focus on their Democratic rivals than on internecine squabbles.

“Add in the additional social and economic problems caused by the pandemic that fairly or not may be laid at the feet of a governor [and] the public’s appetite for change is a recipe for other GOP officeholders to take a chance in 2022,” Ostermeier said.

On The Trail is a reported column by Reid Wilson, primarily focused on the 2022 midterms.