Which Texas cities could see nearly 500K tourists during the total eclipse?

Editor’s Note: The video above is from a story published on April 7, 2023.

AUSTIN, Texas (KXAN) — With three months until a total solar eclipse passes over Texas on April 8, many people are making final preparations. Between 931,000 and 3,725,000 are expected to travel to see the eclipse within the United States, according to GreatAmericanEclipse.com.

Which cities are expecting the most visitors? According to eclipse cartographer Michael Zeiler, the areas around Kerrville, Texas; Carbondale, Illinois; Franklin, Indiana; and Erie, Pennsylvania; are all expecting as many as 200,000 visitors.

Kerrville and Franklin could see more than 400,000 visitors.

“There’s a whole list of metropolises that are less than 100 miles from the eclipse path. So they’ll experience major traffic on eclipse day,” Zeiler said.

Kerrville isn’t the only Texas city expecting thousands of visitors. Texas is expected to have more than a million people traveling to see the eclipse, with more than 12 million living in the eclipse path.

“If you say perhaps 10% of those 12 million peoples have houseguests over, well then 10% of 12 million is 1.2 million,” Zeiler said.

Predicating eclipse tourism

Zeiler has a history with eclipse cartography. “I had a long career as a geographer and a personal interest in chasing eclipses,” Zeiler said. He began making eclipse maps in 2009.

How does Zeiler determine where people will travel for the eclipse? “I start with a couple of basic assumptions.”

The first is that most people will travel the shortest distance they can to the path of totality, where the eclipse will completely blot out the sun. For instance, people in San Antonio, which is on the edge of the eclipse, are more likely to travel to Kerrville than Fredericksburg.

“The second assumption is that people who live nearby obviously are more likely to come,” Zeiler said. He added this means people in Houston are more likely to travel than people in New Orleans.

By tracing the path – again, the shortest to totality – from these locations, Zeiler is able to determine where people will go.

These estimates match what experts have been warning about for the past year. The Texas Department of Transportation warns that some rural areas could see a 200% increase in traffic during the eclipse.

Many expert eclipse chasers plan to avoid the crowds of Texas and head to the open sea where chasing is easier.

For people staying in Austin, Zeiler recommends traveling to the northwest part of the city where totality will last longer.

“Many folks in Austin will stay in Austin, watch the eclipse from their porch, and they’ll have a wonderful experience. Even one or two minutes is plenty of time to to enjoy the eclipse. But many will drive 40 or 50 miles to the west or north to get to a longer duration,” Zeiler said.

Zeiler notes that his estimates don’t include people who live in the path of totality and plan to travel, which means even more people may be on the road.