Schumer stares down to-do list as November looms

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is staring down a tricky to-do list as he looks to navigate the political winds of the November elections and secure bipartisan wins on several key items that have proven elusive. 

With government funding for fiscal 2024 out of the way, the Democratic leader is turning his attention to what he hopes will be some bipartisan work and to the ongoing churn of executive and judicial nominations. But the election cycle is already well underway, and contested Senate races are likely to color that work.

“It’s about that time in the cycle when everything is filtered through the prism of what’s best for those up in 2024,” said Jim Manley, who served as a top aide to former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and former Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-Mass.). “How it all plays out, I don’t know yet. But I can assure you that’s what the leadership is spending a lot of time trying to work through.”

Schumer’s bipartisan wish-list, which he laid out Friday in a letter to Senate Democrats, is extensive and ambitious, with much of it carrying over from the year-end agenda he released in August. Headlining that list is rail safety legislation, a cannabis banking package and potential work on Big Tech, including a kids’ safety bill and on the future of TikTok. 

Complicating completion of that work is a series of must-pass items — including FISA renewal later this month and FAA reauthorization in May — and an expected supplemental package to deal with the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore last month. While the federal government is expected to cover a large part of the recovery using existing emergency funds, Congress still needs to play a role in approving additional dollars for rebuilding the bridge and helping to cover the economic loss that the Port of Baltimore has experienced. 

Whether Schumer can move on many of those items remains a real question.

“I think it’s hard. … I don’t have a ton of faith that we’re going to get a lot done because we haven’t so far,” one Senate Democratic aide told The Hill. “We have not accomplished a lot as a Congress in general. It took us more than five months to get done the one thing we needed to get done,” they added, referring to government funding.

“The idea that we’ll rake up other wins doesn’t seem very realistic,” the aide said. “Not to say we won’t try … but realistically we’re not banking on getting other things done.” 

Schumer in the coming months will likely also try not to subject his members up for reelection in November to tough votes.

Democrats are facing an uphill climb this fall to retain the chamber. Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) decision to retire effectively hands the seat to Republicans, leaving the GOP one short of a majority. Democrats will almost certainly have to run the table, coupled with a reelection victory for President Biden, in order to keep hold of the chamber.

Some Democratic incumbents could receive a major boost in the coming months via Schumer’s bipartisan playbook. 

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is the lead Democratic sponsor of the rail safety proposal that was crafted following the train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, while Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) has been a key player in the push for SAFE Banking legislation that would give the cannabis industry access to legal banking services. The pair are considered among the top targets for Republicans this year. 

But along the way, Schumer’s going to have some big decisions to make, including whether to try to turn the screws on Republicans in the hopes of giving his members a political boost. 

“The proverbial fork in the road is whether he wants to go with this bipartisan agenda or turning the floor into a show vote machine to make Republicans look bad,” said one Senate GOP aide, name checking abortion as a prime example. “It’s all about prioritizing to make those decisions.”

Another call Schumer could have to make down the line is whether to turn the chamber’s attention almost exclusively to lifetime judicial nominees if he sees a point of no electoral return for Biden or any of his members up in November. 

Adding another layer of pressure is the tight window Schumer has to move legislation. The Senate only has 11 work weeks planned between now and the monthlong August recess, including a number of weeks that are truncated where the Senate is out on Monday. Senators will return for all of September, but that stretch is likely to be consumed by funding the government for fiscal 2025 and reauthorizing the Farm Bill. 

And a presidential cycle means more time away from Washington for lawmakers, including for both parties’ conventions and for members up for reelection to campaign at home. 

Another question is the level of cooperation he receives from his Republican counterparts, who are in the early stages of an internal battle to find a replacement for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) atop the conference and fill out the rest of the leadership team. 

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who is running against Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) for that post, quickly derided Schumer’s agenda, noting that many of the items listed had already been laid out last summer.

“Well, this ambitious to-do list looks familiar!” he said.