Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) on Sunday offered his prediction for how the Russia-Ukraine war could unfold, arguing neither side will “achieve victory as defined in the most idealistic terms.”
When asked by “Fox News Sunday” anchor Shannon Bream how much “pressure” the U.S. or other international leaders should put on Russia and Ukraine to find a solution, Rubio said, “I’m not going to set parameters on what that looks like. It’s not our place to do that; it’s premature to do that.”
“Here’s what I do know, there is no way that the Russia Federation takes Ukraine, all of Ukraine, half of Ukraine and that was [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s goal from the beginning was to carve it up into half… at least half the country, including Kyiv, that’s not going to happen,” Rubio, who sits on the Senate Foreign Relations and Intelligence committees, continued.
Rubio, however, said it is important to look at the “reality” of Ukraine’s size and ability in comparison to Russia.
“We have the reality of it is that Ukraine is small compared to Russia in terms of size and its ability to bring scale, its ability to force, conscript people… I’m just being honest,” he said. “You know, in the past, I have tried not to talk about this publicly because I thought it undermined the leverage that Ukraine had, but now it’s the reality.”
Russia’s war with Ukraine surpassed its two-year mark late last month, with neither side appearing open to conceding. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last week said losing the war against Russia would amount to the same tragic end as death.
“Neither side is going to be able to achieve victory as defined in the most idealistic terms,” Rubio said. “So then the question becomes if in fact, there’s going to be a negotiated settlement, who’s going to have the leverage here? Is it going to be Putin or is it going to be Ukraine, and I want Ukraine to have the most amount of leverage possible when the time comes for those conversations to happen.”
The Florida Republican argued Putin wants Ukraine to become “basically a satellite state,” like Belarus, in which the country is forced to “remain neutral.”
Increasing divisions among lawmakers have left U.S. aid for Ukraine in limbo for nearly a year as Congress struggles to agree on further funding for the Eastern European nation. Rubio, along with most of the GOP conference, voted against a bipartisan border security deal last month that would’ve also unlocked aid for the country.
Rubio also voted against a $95 billion emergency defense spending bill last month, including about $60 billion in aid for Ukraine. The deal passed in the upper chamber and headed to the House, where Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) faces pressure to bring it to the floor. Johnson has signaled he will not bring the legislation to the floor as it lacks the border security provisions demanded by House GOP members in recent months.
Rubio on Sunday reiterated his argument that while he believes the U.S. should help Ukraine, this can only be after further action is taken on the U.S. southern border.