4 ways the government funding fight could play out in January

Congress faces an avalanche of government funding work when it returns from the holidays this month — and little time to complete it ahead of a looming shutdown deadline.  

Under the stopgap bill passed in November, Congress is staring down two cutoff dates in January and February to keep the government funded.  

But with less than a month to go until the first deadline on Jan. 19 — when funding is set to lapse for various parts of the government — lawmakers are clashing over next steps amid deep divides over spending.  

Here’s a few ways the fight could shake out in January. 

Congress passes its annual funding bills 

While some conservatives remain hopeful that they’ll be able to pass their individual government funding bills for fiscal 2024, many are signaling openness to passing a minibus as work lags on the 12 annual funding bills. 

“It’s going to be very difficult to get all of the appropriations bills we have to get done in time if we don’t have the [top-line] number, and we don’t have the number right now,” Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), who heads the House subcommittee that crafts the annual funding bills for the departments of Transportation (DOT) and Housing and Urban Development (HUD). “So, we’re going to have to make some tough decisions in early January.” 

The House has passed seven GOP-crafted spending bills while the Senate has passed a so-called maxibus of three bills. But the bills passed look vastly different between chambers, which means both chambers have their work cut out for them as leaders work to reach an agreement on a top-line level and eventually craft bipartisan bills that can pass the GOP-led House and the Democratic-led Senate. 

While some spending cardinals say they’ve begun having discussions with their counterparts in the other chambers around what the bills could look like, they also acknowledge the limitations they face in conferencing their bills without knowing their subcommittee’s respective allocations. 

There’s also concern about the status of a handshake deal struck between the White House and House GOP leadership that could mean additional funding for nondefense programs under new Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), particularly as hard-line conservatives urge him to abandon the side agreement. 

Congress passes another stopgap 

The prospect of Congress having to pass another stopgap funding bill to prevent a shutdown becomes more likely the longer lawmakers fall behind in their annual spending work.  

Appropriators were already worried about the lack of a top-line agreement between leadership from both parties before leaving town for the holidays. 

Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), head of the Senate subcommittee that crafts the annual funding bill for HUD and DOT, said last month that he thinks Congress has until closer to the “end of the calendar year” to strike a top-line funding deal in time for them to conference and pass funding legislation to meet the January deadline. 

If Congress resorts to another stopgap, also known as a continuing resolution (CR), it will be the third CR that lawmakers have had to pass since September to prevent a shutdown and buy more time for spending talks. 

But there is some uncertainty as to what kind of stopgap bill could even notch the necessary bipartisan backing for passage. 

Leadership is already having a hard time striking a bipartisan top-line deal in the aftermath of a legislative agreement Congress passed back in spring that suspended the debt ceiling, along with setting budget caps for appropriators to work from when crafting the fiscal 2024 funding bills. 

However, experts warn that, under the limits of the debt ceiling law, Congress could face even more headaches if it tries to pass a stopgap measure in the new year.  

That includes potentially steeper cuts than lawmakers previously bargained for in the event of a full-year stopgap plan — an idea that some House Republicans have called for if Congress needs more time to finish their appropriations work in January.  

But that idea has faced staunch opposition from Democrats, and even Senate GOP leadership. 

Johnson has said he will not push through another short-term stopgap. 

“A CR is simply unacceptable for a year,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said before the Senate left for their end-of-year recess. “It’s devastating, particularly for defense, and we’ve got all of these wars going on. So, we need to reach an agreement on the top line and get about getting an outcome as soon as possible.” 

Parts of the government shut down 

Lawmakers risk a partial government shutdown on Jan. 20 if they fail to pass legislation in time to extend funding. 

As part of the two-tiered stopgap bill that Congress passed in the fall, lawmakers agreed to extend funding for four of its 12 annual spending bills through mid-January. That includes funding for offices including the HUD, DOT and the Department of Agriculture. 

That also leaves Congress staring down an even bigger batch of work to handle when the deadline for the other bills comes up two weeks later on Feb. 2 — which is when funding for agencies including the departments of Defense, Labor and Health and Human Services faces a lapse. 

Asked before the holiday break if Congress is on track to meet the January deadline, Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.), another appropriator, said: “If we don’t really get our act together and start working together and figuring these things out, it’s going to be difficult to do.” 

Congress passes an omnibus 

Republicans have long railed against omnibus spending packages, even as they’ve become the norm. 

Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), during the fight for the gavel in January, promised conservatives he wouldn’t resort to a single massive spending package, and Speaker Johnson backed that vow, telling reporters in November that they “broke the omnibus fever — we call it the ‘omni fever.’” 

But with no clear direction on funding, a cool reception to a yearlong stopgap and a ticking clock, it’s an option that some Republicans say they’re still concerned about. 

“I think we’re going to end up with one of two things: either an omnibus or a yearlong CR,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.), an appropriator, said. “And I’m not sure that an omnibus that would be put together by [Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.)] and his team will get 10 Republican votes.” 

“If I were betting between the omnibus and the CR, I would bet on the CR right now,” he said. “Now, that doesn’t mean that’s what I prefer, but if you asked me the odds, I would say, if it comes down to omnibus [or] CR, CR wins.” 

Mike Lillis contributed.