Congress stares down brutal January

Lawmakers are staring down a brutal opening to 2024 as border talks and work on President Biden’s $111 billion supplemental could slip into January while Congress attempts to navigate two government funding deadlines.

Senators on both sides of the aisle say negotiators are still far away from a border deal of any sort, which Republicans say is necessary to unlock aid for Ukraine. This is resigning lawmakers to the idea of working on the supplemental next month as they juggle the pair of shutdown deadlines — making next month more difficult than it already was shaping up to be. 

“It’s a heavy lift,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.). “It’s hard to imagine how heavy the lift might be.”

Senate negotiators and Biden administration officials were expected to work through the weekend on a border deal, and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) called senators back this week to give them more time to reach an agreement before they break for the holidays.

But multiple senators indicated late last week that the group was still far from producing a framework, let alone drafting legislative text.

The hill to climb to get a deal and vote on it is incredibly steep, likely pushing matters into the new year and further complicating what is already going to be a tricky stretch to start the 2024 legislative calendar.

“It’ll be very intense,” said Sen. Debbie Stabenow (Mich.), the No. 3 Senate Democrat. “Unfortunately, folks who actually just want continual chaos so we can’t move forward and solve problems have been successful by having these multiple dates on appropriations and so on.” 

“It does not have to be as chaotic as it will be — but it will be,” she said. 

The first government funding deadline, which deals with funding military construction and the departments of Veterans Affairs; Transportation; Housing and Urban Development; Agriculture; and Energy, is set for Jan. 19, less than two weeks after members return from the holidays. The rest of the government, including Defense, is only funded for an additional two weeks, through Feb. 2. 

But lawmakers are at a loss for how they will overcome those hurdles. The Senate has only passed one three-bill package (known as a minibus) to fund the government, while the House has advanced seven individual appropriations proposals — with little more progress on those fronts expected before the deadlines. 

Lawmakers have yet to come up with a top-line funding number and have not determined how much will be allocated in each of the 12 spending bills. 

At this point, some senators are resigned to a possible year-long funding bill at current levels, known as a continuing resolution (CR), or else a government shutdown could be in order — with neither being a good outcome, they argue. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has ruled out moving on another short-term spending stopgap or an omnibus spending bill, limiting their options.

“That’s not good, and it would be very difficult for us to accept,” Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), said of a possible year-long CR, pointing to damage to the military that would result. 

“There’s a huge amount that needs to get done in a very short period of time. I don’t see folks working in advance to get the other things ready to go,” he said. “This is not a good situation we are in.”

Further complicating the picture is that without a deal on all 12 appropriations bills before April 30, a 1-percent cut for all fiscal 2024 defense and nondiscretionary spending would take place — a possibility lawmakers would like to avoid at all costs. 

The coming battles on Capitol Hill will also run parallel to the official start of the presidential primary season, as voters in Iowa and New Hampshire will make their choices Jan. 15 and Jan. 23, respectively.

As members note, the coming political season has already created issues for lawmakers as it has truncated the 2024 congressional calendar. The Senate is set to only be in session for 29 weeks next year, compared to the 34 weeks that were slated for 2023.

However, the specific consideration of the supplemental would be in the line of fire in the coming weeks even if negotiators are able to secure a border deal. Some outside groups on the right were scoring opposition to bipartisan talks even taking place, while progressives have grown increasingly concerned over possible curtailments of asylum claims and other provisions that could end up in a deal.

“You have two political parties who have a fair number of constituents that don’t like any of it,” Cramer said. “It’s very complicated. Primary elections will, in some races, depend on how the member voted on Ukraine support — particularly if it’s absent any meaningful border reforms. On the other hand, Democrats run the same risk if they mess up the border.”

“I think the ‘24 elections are on a lot of people’s minds,” he added.