Senate GOP negotiators struggling to reach a border deal critical to unlocking aid for Ukraine and Israel are expressing doubts that even if they can come to an agreement, it is one that Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) can sell to House members.
Johnson, who became the Speaker five weeks ago, has rested Ukraine aid on the ability of Republicans to enact border reform. But Republicans and Democrats remain at odds on a potential agreement, and GOP senators are openly expressing worries they can secure a deal Johnson could bring to the House floor and be palatable to enough conservatives.
“Even if we get a majority of Republicans [in the Senate], it will be a steep hill for Speaker Johnson,” said Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who is part of the bipartisan negotiating group. “There’s no question.”
The negotiators, led by Sens. James Lankford (R-Okla.) and Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), have met or talked consistently since before the Senate broke for the Thanksgiving recess and have reported progress in talks, specifically on asylum reform to lift the “credible fear” standard for migrants attempting to enter the country.
The group, though, has reached an impasse over how to deal with the humanitarian parole system that is used by some migrants. Tillis told The Hill on Tuesday there has been “no progress” on that front, which means the border component would not have the needed support in the Senate GOP conference, let alone across the Capitol complex with House conservatives.
Sen. Dick Durbin (Ill.), the No. 2 Democrat and a member of the 2013 comprehensive immigration reform push, indicated as much to reporters, saying he is unwilling to budge on the parole issue because it is a key portion of the Biden administration’s immigration and border policy.
“It’s very delicate,” Durbin said. “I agree with the president that that isn’t a likely addition to this debate.”
But giving members a boost in discussions is Johnson, who told reporters Monday he has been in touch with negotiators and has made clear that he backs giving aid to Ukraine despite the vocal crowd in his conference that is vehemently against doing so. Senate Republicans increasingly believe his role is crucial for them to strike a deal that can ultimately get across the finish line.
“Mike, by injecting himself [in talks], is carrying a lot of water for us,” Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) told reporters.
Johnson’s role in talks, members argue, is not to be understated, especially after he voted multiple times against giving increased aid to the Ukrainians in their war against Russia. Multiple senators lately have referred to what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told them in the Old Senate Chamber — that without the aid, Ukraine will be out of bullets and lose the war.
According to Mullin, who entered the Senate last year after more than a decade in the House, Johnson’s current stance is likely shaped by the intelligence and briefings he has received as Speaker — something he did not receive as a rank-and-file member.
“When you get informed on Ukraine, you get a different opinion on it. … Knowledge is key, and when you don’t know, you don’t know,” Mullin said. “I’ve never known him saying something he wasn’t willing to do.”
Despite the lack of a deal and Johnson exerting his muscle, some House conservatives and their allies have already been vocal in opposition to any potential deal that emerges from the upper chamber.
Heritage Action on Tuesday doused that fire with gasoline by preemptively urging lawmakers to spurn any proposal agreement that ends up being struck by the group. Instead, the right-wing organization argued that “H.R. 2 is the only solution to securing the border.”
“House and Senate conservatives should reject this proposal and commit to supporting H.R. 2 to restore safety and security for the American people,” said Kevin Roberts, the head of Heritage Action, in a statement, referring to the conservative plan to deal with the border. “Anything less is unacceptable.”
The Biden administration asked for nearly $14 billion in its $106 billion supplemental package to process migrants at the border. But the need to unlock more than $60 billion for Kyiv has led to the discussions on the border and immigration — a solution for which has eluded members for decades.
Complicating factors even further is there is no set-in-stone deadline for completion of the supplemental, though lawmakers consistently believe Christmas is the soft deadline to get it done. This has ratcheted up pressure on the group to get something sorted out in the coming days before Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) plans to begin floor consideration of the supplemental next week.
However, the lack of a true deadline could allow talks to extend into January, which will be consumed by government spending and the start of the 2024 presidential primary season.
The timing is tossing a wrench into proceedings, though time is of the essence, because all of those included in talks are proponents of Ukraine aid and believe the country should have received funding months ago.
“We have been willing to give a lot in these talks. We are way out of [our] traditional comfort zone for Democrats,” Murphy told reporters. “At some point, Republicans are going to have to say ‘yes.’”