Looming shutdown serves as first major test for McConnell-Johnson relationship

The looming government shutdown set to begin Saturday presents the first major test of Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-Ky.) ability to work with new Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.).   

Johnson on Saturday introduced a two-step continuing resolution (CR) to prevent a shutdown. It would extend funding for parts of the government through Jan. 19 and other federal programs until Feb. 2, and it is intended to allow lawmakers time to negotiate 12 full-year spending bills.

But Johnson’s measure does not include funding for Ukraine and Israel, even though McConnell and other senior Senate Republicans have identified them as urgent national security priorities  

Senate Appropriations Committee Vice Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine), who met with Johnson on Wednesday and is usually closely aligned with McConnell on spending strategy, expressed skepticism about the “laddered” approach to funding the government that Johnson is embracing with his proposal.

“I have a lot of reservations. I don’t see how that would work, and it seems unnecessarily complex,” Collins said. “How would you choose which programs terminate at which time? You’d have to go through the threat of shutdowns of part of government over and over again. It doesn’t seem to me to make a lot of sense.”

Other GOP senators said they would prefer to extend government funding only until mid-December to give Congress a chance to wrap up work on the annual funding bills before the start of a new year.  

“I’d like to get the work done now,” said Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), who added he’d like to pass funding for Israel and Ukraine “as soon as possible.”  

It’s unclear whether Johnson can get his package through the House, where some Republicans have also voiced objections. Democrats, who have not been involved in the talks, are likely to oppose the measure, meaning Johnson will have to come up with the votes to pass it from his own conference. He’ll only be able to afford a few defections.

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre called it “a recipe for more Republican chaos and more shutdowns — full stop.” 

If Johnson can muscle a measure through, McConnell will come under pressure from conservatives in the Senate GOP conference to back Johnson.

“We should be supporting him and not undermining him,” said Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), who is urging Republican senators to coalesce behind the new Speaker with government funding set to expire at the end of the week.    

Much will depend on whether Johnson can win support from his own conference, and whether some version of a laddered approach passes the House.  

 Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), a member of the Senate Appropriations Committee, on Sunday criticized Johnson’s proposal as “gimmicky.”

But he didn’t rule it out completely. 

“We cannot have a government shutdown this weekend, certainly not while we’re facing these existential crises for our friends in Israel and Ukraine. I don’t like this laddered CR approach, it looks gimmicky to me, but I’m open to what the House is talking about,” he said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

Other Senate Democrats also reacted cautiously to Johnson’s proposed two-step stopgap, pointing out that at least it does not include the steep spending cuts that House conservatives have demanded.  

“It’s a good thing the Speaker didn’t include unnecessary cuts and kept defense funding with the second group of programs,” said a Senate Democratic leadership aide. 

One GOP senator, who requested anonymity to comment on internal conference dynamics, said McConnell now faces a tough leadership test.    

Senators are wondering if McConnell will try to strike a deal with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) on a funding stopgap that would extend all government funding until mid-December and reject Johnson’s plan to fund some departments until Jan. 19 and others until Feb. 2. 

“Will he try for a deal [with Schumer]? Probably. Is this a test of leadership? Yeah. Will he be able to bring the conference along?” the GOP senator said. 

McConnell also must decide whether to support adding emergency foreign aid for Israel, Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific to the spending stopgap, though he has already indicated to GOP colleagues that he favors moving them separately.  

“If it’s Israel plus Ukraine” money attached to a stopgap funding measure, “that will run into a lot of consternation on the Republican side, not least because Speaker Johnson … has been clear” that a stopgap funding package with money for Ukraine but without immigration policy reforms won’t pass the House, the lawmaker said.    

McConnell has made it clear repeatedly that he will do what’s necessary to avoid a government shutdown, which he warns is bad for the country and a political “loser” for the Republican Party.  

GOP senators say that if Johnson can’t muster enough votes to pass his measure through the House, or some kind of stopgap, McConnell will likely team up with Schumer to pass a bipartisan one through the Senate and then put pressure on the Speaker to bring it to the House floor, where it would likely pass with a bipartisan majority.    

“Schumer would really be in the driver’s seat if the House does not act — if we get to Tuesday and they haven’t acted, then Johnson will have missed” the chance to seize the initiative, the GOP senator who requested anonymity said.

Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) was unseated in large part for backing a measure to prevent a shutdown that relied on Democratic votes. It’s unclear whether Johnson, who has only been Speaker for a few weeks, would be willing to bring a measure to the floor that needed Democratic votes for passage.

The Speaker suffered two setbacks last week when he failed to pass two different appropriations bills because of divisions in the House GOP conference.    

One would have funded the departments of Transportation and Housing and Urban Development, and the second would have funded financial services and general government.   

“I don’t think the Lord Jesus himself could manage this group,” Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Texas) lamented after the bills failed, according to NBC News.   

McConnell has already backed the Speaker by insisting that any funding for Ukraine must be attached to “credible” border security reforms to slow the record surge of migrants across the U.S. border.    

Several GOP senators had pressed for McConnell to support combining the stopgap funding measure with an emergency supplemental foreign aid spending package, but the Senate leader has told colleagues they will be dealt with separately, according to Republican senators.   

McConnell last week declined to say what kind of continuing resolution he would support, playing his cards close to the vest.    

“It’ll be up to the majority leader — I’ve been both, majority is better — to decide what he wants to move through the Senate,” he said.    

He also dodged taking a position on how long a stopgap should last, only saying that Schumer and Speaker Johnson “will have to reach some kind of agreement on that.”    

McConnell and Johnson met for more than 45 minutes privately on Nov. 1 and are keeping in touch “weekly,” according to a Republican aide familiar with their interactions.    

McConnell’s top deputy, Senate Republican Whip John Thune (S.D.), said Senate leaders are waiting to see what Johnson can pass out of his conference.    

Thune declined to say what options Senate GOP leaders are mulling, only warning that “government shutdown is not an option.”