A new poll showing President Biden struggling with Black voters has Democratic strategists urging the campaign to increase its outreach to a crucial demographic — while Black conservatives see an opportunity for the GOP to siphon support for their own candidates.
The numbers in the poll released Sunday by The New York Times and Siena College were staggering for Democrats.
The poll found 22 percent of Black voters in six battleground states said they would support former President Trump in next year’s election. While 71 percent said they would back Biden, the total for Trump is a percentage no Republican presidential candidate has reached with Black voters in a half-century.
Trump won just 8 percent of the Black vote in 2020 and 6 percent in 2016, according to the Pew Research Center. No Democratic presidential candidate has won less than 80 percent of the Black vote since the Civil Rights era, according to The New York Times.
Terrance Woodbury, CEO and founding partner of HIT Strategies, said the drop in Biden’s numbers are a “red flag” showing the campaign where it needs to invest time and money.
“What concerns me here is that if the Biden campaign and Democrats do not use this as a roadmap for where they need to make improvements and where they need to shore up their coalition, then with several third-party candidates making their way onto ballots in competitive states, this is the kind of erosion that could that could change the outcome of elections,” Woodbury told The Hill.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and professor Cornel West already have launched independent bids for the presidency, while Biden is facing primary challengers in Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), author Marianne Williamson and progressive talk show host Cenk Uygur.
Adrianne Shropshire, executive director of BlackPAC, an organization dedicated to mobilizing Black voters, told The Hill that Biden’s struggles with Black voters shouldn’t be a surprise.
Biden has long had a challenge motivating younger Black voters, she said, and he needs to now spend more time flooding voters’ inboxes and social media with his accomplishments.
“People are definitely frustrated by the lack of information that they’re getting,” Shropshire said. “Black voters in particular are trying to inform themselves. The challenge is, they’re looking for it in an environment that is just filled with dissident misinformation.”
Biden’s campaign and the Democratic National Committee (DNC) have said they have been doing just that.
The Biden campaign recently launched radio ads across Black-owned stations in battleground states, and Vice President Harris took a monthlong tour of historically Black colleges and universities to hear from young Black voters and to emphasize where the administration has succeeded in its racial justice promises.
Quentin Fulks, Biden’s principal deputy campaign manager, told CNN this week that the campaign is working to reach Black voters early in this election cycle.
“Traditionally, Black voters are treated as GOTV [get out the vote] targets. Campaigns, candidates parachute into their communities last-minute, dangle in front of them and say ‘please vote for me.’ Our campaign is turning that on its head, and I’m extremely proud of that, to make sure that we’re communicating,” Fulks said.
“This is not a community or constituency that we take for granted at all. Candidly, I’m not worried about Black voters voting for Donald Trump, but we have to do everything that we can to communicate the record of accomplishments in how Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have worked to change their lives, and also paint a picture of what they’re going to do in these voters turn out to vote for them in 2024, so that we can finish the job.”
A spokesperson for the DNC told The Hill that the group has also been working closely with the campaign, including holding roundtables and listening sessions in states like Mississippi and Wisconsin and partnering with the Congressional Black Caucus, to highlight the administration’s accomplishments and mobilize voters.
Conservatives cite disconnect
Some conservatives say Black voters are aware of what the Biden campaign has done — they’re just disconnected with the Democratic Party as a whole.
Whitley Yates, a GOP strategist, said the poll shows Black voters are “disenchanted” from the Democratic Party with Biden at the helm — and it shows not only with Black voters but also with Black leaders.
In July, Georgia state Rep. Mesha Mainor, who represents part of Atlanta, defected to the Republican Party. Then, in September, Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson announced he was switching his affiliation from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party.
“I think the Black community grew from apathy to antagony during these years, and this poll is indicative of that,” said Yates, director of diversity and engagement for the Indiana Republican Party. “You compound this with high inflation rates, high food cost and housing insecurity, Black Americans are feeling as though this administration would rather practice globalism instead of taking care of the Black community in America.”
As Biden’s approval rating continues to dip with prospective 2024 voters, Yates said the Republican Party has an opportunity to speak to Black Americans.
“The most important thing that needs to happen from Republicans is understanding that conservative principles and policies work for all communities, and making sure that this message resonates in all communities means that we have to show up,” she said. “We should be present outside looking for votes or in the churches on Sunday … Understanding that we can be in unison with the Black community in working toward fixing issues without being uniform in approach will be incredibly important.”
Black men are a concern for Biden
In polls conducted by multiple organizations, including Shropshire’s BlackPAC, Black voters have repeatedly identified topics such as racial equity and the rise of white supremacy, access to affordable education and reproductive rights as among their top issues.
But Black men, who made up a substantial part of Trump’s 2020 Black voter support, are not as mobilized by these issues as other demographics in the community, Woodbury said.
Issues such as the economy, criminal justice reform and public safety do mobilize Black men.
Though the Biden administration has had success on all these topics, Woodbury added, the message hasn’t made it to these voters.
“That Trump bump amongst Black voters where Donald Trump did better amongst Black voters than any of his predecessors was not concentrated to Donald Trump,” said Woodbury, who noted Republican Senate candidates David Perdue in Georgia and Thom Tillis in North Carolina had had success.
“I do think that the big difference here is not that Republicans are saying anything different or doing anything different, their policy hasn’t changed and messages haven’t changed,” Woodbury added. “The only thing that changed is that they’re trying. They are spending money targeting Black voters for the first time. And they’re finding that there are more receptive voters there than previously expected.”
Shropshire said that while Democrats — and Biden in particular — face a challenge with Black voters, it’s unlikely they will support Trump at more than 20 percent in 2024.
“They are a party who has embraced white supremacy and white nationalists, and for that fact alone will not see way Black voters in their favor,” Shropshire said.
In BlackPAC’s September poll, Black voters identified the single greatest threat to the Black community as the reelection of Trump, followed closely by the rise of white supremacy and white nationalism.
Still, Shropshire warned there’s a real danger Black voters just stay home for next year’s election.
“Black communities are very clear about what is happening in the country right now,” she said. “The problem isn’t that Black people are going to support Trump or they’re going to support Republicans. The problem is the concern and the worry about Black voters deciding that it’s not worth participating.”