NotedDC — How political analysts and journalists are spending election night

For David Wasserman, senior editor for U.S. House elections at The Cook Political Report, Election Day is “typically a moment of Zen and calm.” It turns out Zen for Wasserman consists of county-level analysis and corned beef.

In addition to building “county-by-county models of each candidate’s ‘break even’ number for a win in the most competitive races,” Wasserman told NotedDC, “[f]or some reason, I always end up eating a corned beef sandwich for lunch. … I guess that might be my superstitious Election Day habit.”

Wasserman, who will be in New York on election night, is one of the key political experts relied on every two years for important news about the country’s direction after months of rigorous preparation. We spoke with several other political analysts and election night anchors to find out their rituals surrounding Election Day.

Judy Woodruff, anchor and managing editor of PBS NewsHour, told us she prepares for midterm elections by trying to memorize as much of the “spectacularly helpful PBS NewsHour midterm elections briefing book, which is 265 pages long this year,” as she can.

Asked what helps her get through election night, Woodruff said, “Chocolate in any form.” As for post-election rituals to help her decompress, Woodruff said, “It takes a week or so to decompress: these are such high stress moments, and the stories keep unspooling. Drink a lot of water.”

“I’ve always liked covering Midterm races,” Martha MacCallum, anchor and executive editor of “The Story with Martha MacCallum” and co-anchor of Fox News Channel’s election night coverage, told NotedDC. “[T]hey get the feel for the pulse of what’s happening in the country, and they are a moment when we see new political stars emerge, while others flame out.”

To avoid flaming out herself on election night, MacCallum has some go-to’s in the lead-up: “Running outside is a great way to clear my head and I try to avoid too much coffee or sugar (with limited success…!). That night is pure adrenaline.”

Garrett Haake, senior Capitol Hill correspondent at NBC News, also discussed caffeine management as a key part of his election night routine. “A cup of coffee at 6pm is just going to make you jittery while you wait for polls to close at 9,” Haake told us. “The same cup of coffee at 10? That’s the energy you need to get to 2am.”

Aside from carefully timing his coffee, Haake typically goes to a polling place on Election Day to talk with voters. After that, he said, “I HAVE to get a workout in. Election days always give me a ton of nervous energy, and that helps to get it out when there’s really nothing else to do but wait.”

Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of the nonpartisan election forecaster Inside Elections, makes a point to get away from the computer. “It’s easy to get sucked into Election Day coverage about what turnout looks like in one precinct in the suburbs,” he said, “but that’s ultimately information that is not helpful to the task at hand later.”

Reflecting on the seven elections he spent in New York working with ABC News’ election night decision desk, Gonzales said, “I would walk around part of Central Park and the Upper West Side, and now crisp fall weather is forever tied to the election in my mind.”

Everyone we talked to emphasized the importance of a good amount of sleep heading into Election Day.

Kathryn Hamm, Cook Political Report’s chief operating officer, also told us about the “Election Night Survival Kits” she put together for Wasserman, editor-in-chief Amy Walter and Senate and Governors editor Jessica Taylor. Contents include chicken salad snack packs, lightly salted almonds, gum and under-eye cucumber pads.

Hamm is also cooking up dinner for the Cook front office team. (NotedDC won’t disclose the menu details so as not to spoil the surprise for any team members who may be reading.)

Our thanks to all these very busy people for taking the time to share a glimpse into their big day with us!

This is NotedDC, a newsletter from The Hill looking at the politics, policy and people behind the stories in Washington. We’re Liz Crisp and Amée LaTour. Sign up below.

How to track results Tuesday night

Track Senate, House and gubernatorial results throughout the night Tuesday here.

And see which candidates have already voted in The Hill’s live blog here.

🕖  WHEN POLLS CLOSE IN 7 KEY STATES

Stack up the snacks, folks — it’s going to be a long night.

Voters will be casting ballots in some of the closest Senate races in the country until 10 p.m. Eastern.

Below are poll closing times in the states with the most highly anticipated Senate races — some of which feature battleground House and gubernatorial races as well. 

All times local:

Georgia 7 p.m.

Ohio 7:30 p.m. 

New Hampshire 7-8 p.m. (varies by location)

Pennsylvania 8 p.m.

Wisconsin 8 p.m. (9 p.m. EST) 

Arizona: 7 p.m. (9 p.m. EST)  

Nevada 7 p.m. (10 p.m. EST)

And here’s when polls close in every state, via The Hill

FiveThirtyEight also put together a guide showing what percentage of votes we may see counted at what time based on primary results reporting. Check it out here.

WHAT WE’LL HAVE OUR EYES ON EARLY

►  A few Virginia House races and Indiana’s 1st Congressional District.

David Wasserman tweeted his “rough thinking” about what these races might indicate for the size of House GOP gains:

“- If #VA02 Luria (D) holds on, better night for Dems than expected 

– If #IN01 Mrvan (D) or #VA07 Spanberger (D) lose, Rs likely winning 20+ seats 

– If #NH02 Kuster (D) or #VA10 Wexton (D) lose, Rs likely winning 30+ seats”

But don’t put too much stock in the first numbers you see. Wasserman noted that “at least in VA, the very first results reported are likely to favor Rs. Extra caution is warranted in #VA07, where Prince William Co.’s mail ballots are critical to Rep. Abigail Spanberger’s (D) path to victory and could be the last to be counted.” 

Follow election night results at The Hill’s Election Central, featuring interactive maps with live results for Senate, House and gubernatorial races along with updated party breakdowns for each chamber as a result of the elections.

The parties’ paths to Senate control

The battle for control of the Senate will come down to just a handful of races on Tuesday night, with Republicans having more paths to clinching the majority.

🔵 Democrats’ path to keeping the Senate: Flipping Pennsylvania and holding a handful of other closely contested seats. Read more here.

🔴 Republicans’ path to winning the Senate: Holding the toss-up Pennsylvania seat and securing a win in any of several battlegrounds, such as Nevada, Georgia, New Hampshire or Arizona. Read more here.

NUMBER TO KNOW

28

Average number of U.S. House seats the president’s party lost in midterms, between 1934 and 2018. Average Senate seats lost: 4 

Why results might not be known for a while

Control of the Senate likely hinges on who wins Pennsylvania and Georgia — two states where there may not be a clear winner on Tuesday night.

Pennsylvania state officials have been warning for days that rules prohibiting mail-in ballots from being counted before Election Day could mean results are delayed days.

Meanwhile, if no one secures more than 50 percent support in Georgia, both candidates will head to a runoff on Dec. 6 — roughly a month away.

Election advocates emphasize that not knowing the full results Tuesday night isn’t a problem but part of the process.

“It’s important for us to keep tight,” Erin Vilardi, founder & CEO of Vote Run Lead, a network that primarily focuses on electing women to public office, told NotedDC. “Being patient and waiting for the full results is a good thing.” 

“I don’t want to live in a place where you call an arbitrary deadline of whose vote gets counted,” she added.

Between absentee ballots, vote-by-mail and overseas votes from service members and other voters who aren’t able to head to their polling place on Election Day, there will be thousands of votes counted after the fact.

More than 23 million people have cast early ballots, and many of those are in states where the ballots cannot be counted before polls close.

“That allows us to all participate,” Vilardi said. 

Each state sets up their own voting systems — from early voting rules to voter ID standards to polling hours. While this can complicate the flow of results Tuesday in nationally watched races, Vilardi notes it’s part of being a state-driven country.

“State-by-state, we set our own rules,” she said.

Dems’ missed opportunity

Veteran Democratic strategist James Carville calls the seemingly inevitable GOP takeover of one or both chambers of Congress “the sad truth” and blames it on his own party’s messaging.

Carville, the strategist behind President Clinton and the “It’s the economy, stupid!” mantra driving much of the conversation now as it did in the 1990s, acknowledged the importance of messaging for voters facing record inflation, high gas prices and other expenses.

“What party is saying we are going to give you some help?” Carville told NotedDC. “We don’t tell people that.”

Carville specifically said not enough attention has been paid to what will happen to Medicare and Social Security under a GOP majority.

Sen. Rick Scott, the Florida Republican who heads up the Senate’s top fundraising arm, drew heat earlier this year when he released a blueprint that called for sunsetting all federal legislation after five years.

Republicans have largely shied away from talking about such plans or what the alternative could be, and Carville says Democrats missed an opportunity to connect with key voters. 

“We’re going to have to decide as a party, do we stand with our voters,” he said.

WHAT THE PUNDITS ARE SAYING

The Hill reached out to several pundits including Alice Stewart, Matt Schlapp, Bill Press and Grover Norquist for their predictions on Election Day. Read them here.

– – — BRIEFLY  🗳  🐊  📊  — – –

Seven House races that may be decided early on election night have bellwether potential due to similar environments as many other competitive districts in the U.S. 

In the Senate, chatter is growing over the possibility of Sen. Rick Scott (Fla.), chair of Republicans’ campaign arm, challenging GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) for majority leader if Republicans win the chamber, The Hill’s Alexander Bolton reports.

Our colleague Caroline Vakil rounds up last-minute polling averages in seven key Senate races, and check out five ballot measures to watch.

WHAT WE’RE READING

• The 3 Big Questions I Still Have About Election Day via FiveThirtyEight
• Trump is calling Republicans to ask ‘How many’ times they’ll impeach Biden via RollingStone
• States struggle to curb fake emotional support animals via Stateline
• Election Day ‘Blood Moon’ won’t happen again until 2394 via The Hill/Nexstar Media
  
  

🍺 Election night specials around the District

Trying to forget the election, or want to grab an early libation to celebrate as the results flow in? Our friends over at Thrillist have a full rundown of where you can get drink specials with your “I Voted” sticker.

Grab some oysters at Old Ebbitt Grill while you catch up on the results or head to Shaw’s Tavern for wall-to-wall election night coverage (with sound). Lots of great options on tap. And it’s not too late to throw your own party. Send us pics!

For us:

• Liz is going to be enjoying some pasta this election night while glued to the TV (and maybe checking in on some Bravo shows).
  
• Amée will be watching the results with a box full of spicy and sweet snacks and some caffeinated tea (as her true love, coffee, makes her feel sick at night).
  
  

📨 Have a tip or want to share how you are celebrating/mourning this Election Day? Email us at ecrisp@digital-stage.thehill.com and alatour@digital-stage.thehill.com.

And encourage friends to sign up here: digital-stage.thehill.com/noted.

See you tomorrow!