NotedDC — Georgia record early voting: Who stands to benefit?

With one of the tightest Senate races in the country and a high-profile gubernatorial rematch, Georgia’s midterm early vote is rivaling turnout at the same point in 2020, a presidential election year.

As of Monday, the Georgia secretary of State’s office reported in-person turnout of more than 1.5 million compared to 1.8 million on the same day in 2020. During the last midterm in 2018, just over 1 million had voted at this point.

Counting absentee ballots, turnout so far this year totals 1.66 million.

It’s clear Georgia voters are energized for the midterms, but which party stands to benefit is up for debate. 

John Couvillon, founder of JMC Analytics and Polling, told NotedDC the high turnout numbers coupled with what he sees as easing enthusiasm among early Black voters “is prima facie evidence” that Republicans are “stirred up and ready to vote.”

“Inflation specifically and more generally … just a lack of confidence in the party in power” are driving turnout, he said.

Couvillon said Black early voter turnout dropped from around 39 percent of the total on the first day of early voting to a cumulative 30 percent more recently. He said Democrats “absolutely need a strong Black early vote if they want to be competitive,” noting that about 30 percent of Georgia’s electorate is Black.

Georgia’s Senate race features two Black major-party candidates for the first time. Incumbent Raphael Warnock (D) faces former football star Herschel Walker (R) in a race the Cook Political Report calls a “toss-up.” Libertarian Chase Oliver is also on the ballot.

Early voting in Georgia began Oct. 17 and ends Friday. While the Peach State doesn’t record voters’ partisan affiliations, Couvillon noted that a few states over in Louisiana, more Republicans than Democrats have voted early for the first time.

Georgia Public Broadcasting’s Stephen Fowler wrote on Saturday, “So far, early voting in Georgia has been marked by a higher share of older voters and Black voters than similar times in previous elections.” 

Black early voter turnout finished at 28 percent of the total in the 2020 general election, the U.S. Elections Project reported. Black early voter turnout for the Jan. 5, 2021 Senate runoff election was 31 percent.

Charles Bullock, political science professor at the University of Georgia’s School of Public & International Affairs, told NotedDC, “Democrats need to make up some ground if they’re going to be able to win.”

Bullock mentioned Black voter turnout in addition to older voter turnout: “[A]lmost three-fourths of the voters are over 50 years of age. In Georgia, the older you are, the more likely you’re going to vote for Republicans.”

“It’s pretty reasonable to come up with turnout scenarios where either candidate is slightly ahead,” Monmouth University Polling Institute director Patrick Murray said following a poll conducted Oct. 20-24. “The unknown question is to what extent Republican enthusiasm on Election Day is able to overcome the Democratic advantage in early voting.”

The poll, which included 615 registered voters, said those who’d already voted at the time backed Warnock over Walker 61 percent to 34 percent. The poll summary said, “Among other voters who intend to vote during Georgia’s early voting period, more are aligned with Warnock (37% definite and 15% probable) than Walker (28% definite and 14% probable). The Republican, however, has a large advantage among those who plan to vote on Election Day – 39% definite and 15% probable for Walker compared with just 24% definite and 10% probable for Warnock.” 

The poll’s margin of error was +/- 5 percentage points. 

Along with the Senate race, the rematch between incumbent GOP Gov. Brian Kemp and Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams has garnered widespread attention. Cook rates the gubernatorial race Lean Republican, while Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the race from Lean to Likely Republican.

If no candidate gets a majority of the vote on Nov. 8 in either Georgia race, it will go to a December runoff. Several Senate polls have shown both candidates under 50 percent, but one or both within the margin of error of that threshold. Gubernatorial polls have shown Kemp right around the threshold. 

This is NotedDC, looking at the politics, policy and people behind the stories in Washington. We’re Amee LaTour and Elizabeth Crisp.

📨 Have a tip or some feedback you want to send us?Email ecrisp@digital-stage.thehill.com and alatour@digital-stage.thehill.com.

🎤 Dems turn to not-so-secret weapon in final stretch

Former President Obama, considered one of the Democrats’ best campaign surrogates, is rounding out the midterm cycle with an aggressive push in key battleground races.

Obama is in Nevada on Tuesday and plans to visit Arizona and Pennsylvania — including rallies in both Pittsburgh and Philadelphia — to round out the week. This comes after stops in Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin in recent days.

The Obama team notes that all this groundwork is “in addition to the more than 25 ads and robocalls he’s taped for candidates across the country, rolling out from campaigns almost daily.” 

But as The Hill recently reported, some Democrats have grumbled that the former president’s presence may be too little, too late.  

“He shouldn’t just be the closer. He’s still seen as the party’s rock star,” one Democratic strategist told The Hill. 

President Biden has been popping up in key battleground states in the final stretch, but his underwhelming approval ratings have kept him at bay in some of the tighter contests. 

💲 Twitter plans threaten to make government pay

Elon Musk‘s Twitter takeover has caused a lot of fretting, with some celebrities leaving the platform, a number of staffers getting fired and concerns rising about how  the company under new leadership will handle misinformation and toxic content.

But another large question mark looms over the new owner’s proposed system to charge for blue verification badges: How much will it cost government agencies?

“I don’t think anyone has any idea what it means for government,” Annelise Russell, a public policy professor at the University of Kentucky who has studied the use of social media in politics, told NotedDC. “You can’t understand Congress today without understanding it through a digital lens — Twitter is a huge part of that.”

• Twitter itself tracks nearly 800 verified accounts tied to members of the House, and most senators have at least two verified accounts: one personal and one official.
  
• The Congressional Research Service found a decade ago 54 accounts were linked to House and Senate committees — a number that has certainly grown since then.
  
• There are more than 50 staff governmental accounts linked to the White House.
  
• And in each federal agency, from the Department of Defense to the National Parks Service, there are multiple accounts — from general interest to those used by top officials.

“Twitter’s current lords & peasants system for who has or doesn’t have a blue checkmark is bullshit,” Musk tweeted Tuesday, engaging in a back-and-forth with several users on his plans for the future of Twitter.

Details on the pay structure remain murky, and it’s possible the company could include certain exceptions, such as for government accounts. As of Tuesday afternoon, Musk was still spitballing the proposal, with the latest iteration coming in at $8 a month. Past suggestions have ranged from $5 to $20 a month.

At $20 a month, accounts tied to House members alone would rack up at least $190,000 a year. At the lower $8 tier, the total would be around $76,000. The price tag would balloon when factoring in all government offices currently verified.

Russell acknowledged that lawmakers are unlikely to abandon the platform en masse, though the changes could raise other concerns, including about whether offices are comfortable directly sending money to one of Musk’s companies.

A Twitter spokesperson didn’t immediately respond to NotedDC’s request for comment.

⚾️ Groups spend big on ads during World Series

Republicans and Democrats are betting big on ads during the World Series, spending thousands of dollars to reach voters as the contest between the Philadelphia Phillies and Houston Astros stretches toward the weekend.

It’s all about the crucial Pennsylvania race that could determine who controls the Senate next year, with Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and GOP celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz in a heated, neck-and-neck race heading into the final stretch.

• The Philadelphia Inquirer reported Democrats took out a one-time spot in Philadelphia for the opening game that cost about $100,000 — compared to $700 the group spent for a weekday hit during the evening newscast on the same channel.
  
• Meanwhile, Axios reported the Mitch McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund bought a seven-game package for about $700,000. 

Pouring so much money into a big game can be a gamble, but strategists say it can be a smart move when it’s the right teams. In this case, the Phillies draw Pennsylvania eyeballs when every vote is needed.

“While the World Series is nowhere near the ratings powerhouse it used to be, it does perform incredibly well in the markets for the teams involved, and for week-night programing it’s like adding a handful of NFL viewing-audience-size live sports events the final week before the election,” GOP media consultant Nick Everhart told NotedDC.

“This year with the game involving the Phillies it provides a tailor-made opportunity for campaign, direct and outside groups involved in the U.S. Senate race to reach less-frequent TV viewers in the key Philadelphia TV DMA, which covers a cluster of crucial collar counties like Delaware, Chester, Bucks, Montgomery…and the Lehigh Valley… where the race will likely be won or lost by Oz or Fetterman,” he added.

KORNACKI TALKS PENNSYLVANIA SENATE STAKES

Our colleague Dominick Mastrangelo interviewed NBC and MSNBC national political correspondent Steve Kornacki about the Pennsylvania Senate election stakes and Kornacki’s new podcast, “The Revolution with Steve Kornacki,” delving into former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s (R-Ga.) role in the 1994 midterms. 

Some excerpts: 

• About voters’ response to John Fetterman’s debate performance: “If the Democrats lose any of the seats they currently hold, and they’re in danger in a couple of them, they’ve got to be able to balance it. … The biggest question here is in these final two weeks with that debate now having happened, very unique set of circumstances, how does the public in Pennsylvania respond to it?” 
  
• About the topic of his podcast: “There’s all sorts of debate and all kinds of discussion to be had about the long-term meaning, significance, implications of the Republican revolution of 1994, but to me there’s just no question that it changed our politics.” 

Read the full interview here.

– – — BRIEFLY  🤼‍♂️  🙅🏻‍♀️  🏛  — – –

Former President Trump thinks Republicans will take control of the House and potentially the Senate in next week’s midterm elections.

Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) says it’s “disgraceful” for some Republicans to mock Paul Pelosi, the husband of Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), after he was violently attacked at the couple’s San Francisco home.

The Supreme Court has temporarily halted a House panel from accessing Trump’s tax returns ahead of their expected release. 

🏫 President-elect

The University of Florida Board of Trustees has unanimously backed Sen. Ben Sasse‘s (R-Neb.) nomination to be the next president of the university system.

• Sasse’s nomination will go before the Florida Board of Governors, which oversees the university system, on Nov. 10, The Hill’s Al Weaver reports.
  
• The nomination has drawn protests from students since Sasse announced early last month that he would resign from his Senate seat by the end of the year to pursue the academic position.

The move sets up Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) to select his immediate successor.

NUMBER TO KNOW

8 billion

Global population is expected to hit the milestone this month, according to United Nations estimates.

🎃 One more thing

President Biden and first lady Jill Biden welcomed hundreds of children of first responders to the White House on Halloween. The Bidens handed out small boxes of Hersey’s Kisses and took photos with costumed kids. The first lady dressed as a butterfly with a lavender-colored wig. 

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