NotedDC — Biden gets good GDP news. It still may not help Dems.

Democrats got an unexpected boost less than two weeks out from the midterms as the economy bounced back to register 2.6 percent growth in the third quarter.

President Biden and Democrats, who have coveted any positive economic signs in a year dominated by concerns over inflation and the economy, cheered the report.

“For months, doomsayers have been arguing that the US economy is in a recession and Congressional Republicans have been rooting for a downturn,” Biden said in a statement released by the White House.

“Now, we need to make more progress on our top economic challenge: bringing down high prices for American families.” 

But while the report signaled hope that the U.S. could avert a recession, it’s unlikely to significantly alter voters’ mindsets 12 days before the election, with prices still sky-high.

Nearly 15 million people across the country have already cast early ballots, and while several races remain close, the clock is ticking to sway last-minute deciders.

“Unfortunately, I think it’s much too little much too late. For months, Democrats ignored addressing the economy to try to ease voters’ concerns,” one veteran Democratic strategist told NotedDC.

“Now they’ve completely lost control of that narrative, and while abortion and January 6th are important issues, they don’t compare with the fact that families are paying more for the most basic household items. From the top down, our party looks out of touch and unshaded by issues that voters are clearly concerned about.”

Voters increasingly have voiced concerns about the economy and have been sliding toward Republicans in polling.

Some analysts think the U.S. is still heading for a recession, but likely not until next year. 

This is NotedDC, looking at the politics, policy and people behind the stories in Washington and beyond. We’re Elizabeth Crisp and Amee LaTour.

📨 Have a tip or some feedback you want to send us? Email ecrisp@digital-stage.thehill.com and alatour@digital-stage.thehill.com.

🛣 Trump to rally in key 2024 states in coming days 

Former President Trump’s (R) rally schedule in the days before the midterms includes returns to Senate battlegrounds Ohio and Pennsylvania as well as Florida and Iowa, states considered less competitive. What those latter states have in common: potentially prominent roles in 2024’s presidential race. 

Trump plans to rally in Florida with Sen. Marco Rubio (R) on Nov. 6 — and, notably, not with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who is also up for reelection. DeSantis is considered a likely presidential contender in 2024. (And let’s not forget that Rubio was one of Trump’s many presidential primary competitors in 2016.) 

The Hill’s Jared Gans wrote, “Polls have shown Rubio and DeSantis both with comfortable leads over their Democratic opponents. FiveThirtyEight’s polling average shows Rubio leading by about 9 points and DeSantis leading by about 11 points.”  

Trump recently swiped at DeSantis for bucking him and endorsing GOP nominee Joe O’Dea in Colorado’s Senate race, calling it “a big mistake.” The former president has endorsed numerous Republicans this cycle, but not O’Dea, who has criticized him.

DeSantis will not be at Trump’s Miami rally, Politico reported. A Trump adviser told the outlet that the rally is “part of a series of stops [Trump] is making for Republican Senate candidates” and “came after he and Senator Rubio spoke directly.” 

Trump’s schedule also includes an Iowa rally for Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) and Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) on Nov. 3. Iowa is once again scheduled to host the first GOP presidential nominating contest in 2024. Our colleague Julia Shapero noted, “Both Grassley and Reynolds are favored to win reelection, however Grassley’s race against Democratic challenger Mike Franken appears to be tightening.”  

GOP strategist John Feehery told NotedDC the former president is “thinking about where he will get the biggest crowds, where he could make the most money, where he would get the warmest reception, and where he could make the most positive impact.”

Feehery, who is also a contributor to The Hill, said Trump wants to go “where he knows the candidates will win, but where there are some media reports that the races are close.” 

BRIEFLY

The Biden administration is seeking to scrap the U.S. military’s development of nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missiles, despite recommendations to the contrary from officials, according to the Pentagon’s new National Defense Strategy.

White House chief of staff Ron Klain was warned about violating rules that prohibit government officials from engaging in campaign activity in their official capacity after he retweeted a political message on his government Twitter account. 

A Tennessee man was sentenced to seven-and-a-half years in prison on Thursday after he pleaded guilty to assaulting Washington, D.C., police officer Michael Fanone during the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol riot. 

Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) is endorsing Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) in her competitive reelection bid, marking the first time the Wyoming Republican has crossed the aisle to formally throw her support behind a Democrat.

📃 Ranked-choice rematches to watch on Nov. 8

Electoral novelty abounds in Maine and Alaska, the only two states with widespread use of ranked-choice voting (RCV) and which feature rematches between current and former incumbents next month.

Background: Under RCV, voters can rank their preferences, and a candidate needs a majority to win as opposed to a plurality.

• Exact procedures vary, but generally: If nobody gets a majority off the bat, the last-place candidate is eliminated, and that candidate’s votes are redistributed to those voters’ No. 2 choices. The process continues until there’s a winner.

(For state-specific nitty-gritty, see Maine’s and Alaska’s election department websites)

How it factors in this year: One high-profile race where RCV will play a role on Nov. 8 is in Maine’s 2nd District, one of several toss-up districts expected to decide control of the House.

• Rep. Jared Golden (D) is up against Bruce Poliquin (R), whom Golden unseated in 2018. Tiffany Bond (I), who ran in 2018, is also running again.
  
• Golden was the first member of Congress elected by RCV. In 2018, Poliquin had a small plurality of the vote on the first count, but after the RCV process played out, Golden took a majority.

Polling this year (which has been limited) shows Golden ahead, but not with a secure majority, and Bond with 8 percent, close to the spread between Golden and Poliquin.

Golden was reelected in 2020 even as Trump won the district in the presidential election. Now, Golden is campaigning on the theme of independence, including being the lone Democratic vote against the party’s sweeping Build Back Better legislation.

Poliquin argues that Golden has been “a reliable vote for Nancy Pelosi and Joe Biden and AOC more than 80 percent of the time.”

Keeping an eye on Alaska: The Last Frontier features a crowded battle for governor, with incumbent Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) and former Gov. Bill Walker (I), whom Dunleavy succeeded after the 2018 election, among those vying for the job.

• Walker ended his 2018 reelection bid a month before the election, throwing his support behind Democrat Mark Begich. But Walker’s name was still on the ballot, where he pulled 2 percent. The state hadn’t implemented RCV yet.
  
• Democrat Les Gara and Republican Charlie Pierce are also running for governor this year. The Cook Political Report rates this race Likely Republican. An Alaska Survey Research poll from last month had Dunleavy besting Gara 53 percent to 47 percent in the 3rd round of RCV.

But wait, there’s more: Alaska also boasts a three-way rematch from August’s special election for control of a U.S. House seat.

• New incumbent Mary Peltola, Alaska’s first Democratic representative in decades, again faces Republicans Nick Begich (nephew of Mark) and Sarah Palin. Libertarian Chris Bye is also running. Cook rates this Lean Democrat.

Our colleague Caroline Vakil wrote in September, “While Peltola was likely aided by the state’s newly implemented ranked-choice voting system, her win also fuels further concerns for the GOP about how energized Democratic voters are, as well as the quality of Republican candidates running in critical races.” 

🕍 Synagogue shooting anniversary

It’s been four years since a gunman opened fire on worshipers at Pittsburgh’s Tree of Life synagogue, the deadliest attack on Jewish people in American history.

“As we grieve this deadliest act of antisemitism in American history, we stand with the community of Squirrel Hill—and Jewish communities across America and around the world—in resolving to combat antisemitism and hate in all of its forms,” President Biden said in a statement Thursday.

• After the shooting, which left 11 people dead, leaders vowed to review gun laws to curb violence, but mass shootings have persisted. 
  
• The synagogue still remains closed to the public, CBS reports. The alleged shooter’s trial is expected to take place next year.

Biden on Thursday called on the country “to tackle the scourge of gun violence that has stolen lives from Pittsburgh to Poway, from Newtown to Charleston, from Buffalo to Uvalde, and from countless other communities in between.”

Some other remembrances… 

• Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.): “As Americans mark 4 years since the horrendous attack on Pittsburgh’s Tree of Life Synagogue, the deadliest antisemitic massacre in American history, my colleagues and I join our nation’s Jewish community in mourning 11 peaceful worshippers stolen away by a monstrous act of hate.”
  
• Second gentleman Doug Emhoff: “Four years ago, a gunman killed 11 beloved members of the Tree of Life community and wounded six more. We honor their memories and our hearts are with their families. We must end the scourge of gun violence and fight antisemitism and hatred wherever it exists.”
  
• Former Vice President Mike Pence (R): “Today we honor the memory of the 11 lives tragically lost at the Tree of Life Synagogue in Pittsburgh 4 yrs ago. What happened was not just criminal, it was evil. We condemn Anti-Semitism of any form & violence in places of worship will Never be Tolerated.”
  
  

THE HILL INCLUSION SUMMIT 

The Hill’s Race & Politics reporter Cheyanne Daniels and contributing editor Steve Clemons moderated The Hill’s Diversity, Equity & Inclusion event Thursday. Speakers included Rep. Derek Kilmer (D-Wash.) and Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) chair Charlotte Burrows.

• Kilmer, chair of the House Select Committee on the Modernization of Congress, said the panel has passed several recommendations that were implemented, including “making permanent an Office of Diversity and Inclusion within the institution … [It] means you now have an … office within the Congress that goes to bed at night thinking about these issues every evening and wakes up every morning thinking about these issues.”
  
• The House Democrat also mentioned the committee’s recommendations to do surveys to gather demographic data and to create a human resources hub that can “provide information around how to build a more diverse staff … Most successful organizations have something like this, and our recommendation was, it was time for Congress to have that, too.”

More: Burrows said equal pay is a top issue for the administration and that EEOC is focused on enforcing current policy, “trying to support employers who do want to do the right thing,” collecting pay data and ensuring starting salaries are fair.

Watch the full event here.

🎟 New museums coming to town

The Smithsonian Board of Regents has released its long-awaited recommendations to locate the proposed National Museum of the American Latino and the Smithsonian American Women’s History Museum on the National Mall. 

Congress must act before Smithsonian’s Board of Regents can make final designations on the locations. But the news sides with advocates for the museums, who have pushed for prominent locations on the Mall.

NUMBER TO KNOW

118 MPH

That’s how fast President Biden drove behind the wheel of a classic Corvette, competing in a drag race that aired on “Jay Leno’s Garage” this week. More here. 

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