NotedDC — GOP shuffles Senate resources in final stretch

National Republicans are refocusing their spending efforts in the final weeks of the election as they try to wrestle away Democrats’ slim Senate majority. 

The party has gone all-in on trying to keep an open seat in Pennsylvania in GOP hands, while it’s grown optimistic over tightening numbers in places like New Hampshire, where the Democratic incumbent long had an advantage. 

The matchup between Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) and celebrity heart surgeon Mehmet Oz (R) in Pennsylvania tops outside spending from all groups at $145 million so far, according to Open Secrets data. And at the top of the Pennsylvania spending list is the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF), with $41 million spent this cycle. 

RealClearPolitics’ polling average shows Fetterman with 47.3 percent to Oz’s 46 percent.

The SLF recently shifted focus to Pennsylvania from New Hampshire, where it had spent $16 million. The group referred NotedDC to president Steven Law’s comment in Politico: “Dr. Oz is surging, but Democrats are throwing a barrage of late spending into Pennsylvania to stop his momentum. … This is a must-win race where we have to consolidate our firepower to ensure Oz gets over the top. We believe if we win Pennsylvania, we win the majority.” 

New Hampshire, where Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) faces Don Bolduc (R), currently sits eighth on Open Secrets’ outside spending list, at $34 million. The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) is now reinvesting in the state after backing out earlier this month.

“Our polling, along with recent public polling, shows that this race is in the margin of error and winnable,” Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), chair of the NRSC, told Axios. “The NRSC is proud to stand with General Bolduc. We’re going to win this race so Don Bolduc can bring real leadership back to this Senate seat.”  

RealClearPolitics’ average of recent polls shows Hassan with 49.3 percent to Bolduc’s 45.7 percent. When the NRSC originally pulled its spending, the average had Hassan ahead 49.3 percent to 43 percent. 

NotedDC reached out to the NRSC for additional comment. 

Two other states with Democratic incumbents have drawn the second- and third-highest outside spending totals. Georgia’s Senate race has seen $111 million from outside groups on both sides, and Nevada’s has drawn in $98 million. Polling averages compiled by RealClearPolitics show candidates virtually tied in both races.  

Republicans need a net gain of one seat to claim control of the Senate. 

Welcome to NotedDC, your guide to politics, policy and people of consequence in D.C. and across the U.S. Today’s newsletter comes from The Hill’s Liz Crisp and Amée LaTour.

📨 Have a tip or some feedback you want to send us? Email ecrisp@digital-stage.thehill.com and alatour@digital-stage.thehill.com.

🎤 Pa. debate inserts fresh uncertainty for Dems

Democrats are facing fresh questions over whether their candidate John Fetterman should have gone through with his only scheduled debate against GOP rival Mehmet Oz after the Democratic candidate’s halting performance on Tuesday night.

Fetterman, who suffered a near-fatal stroke earlier this year, stilted and struggled to answer several questions throughout the debate, including importantly when confronted about his competing comments on supporting fracking in Pennsylvania. 

The high-profile face-off has left Democrats second-guessing the decision to have Fetterman go on stage, The Hill’s Al Weaver reports.

• The Fetterman campaign and other supporters went on an aggressive defense of the candidate in the hours since the debate, explaining that his issues are lingering effects from the May stroke and don’t affect his cognitive abilities.
  
• Several pleaded for compassion for someone who had suffered a stroke, even as Republicans attempted to sound alarms about Fetterman’s fitness for office. 

The Fetterman campaign also sought to shift the topic, launching a campaign ad highlighting remarks that Oz made about his position on abortion. 

“I want women, doctors, local political leaders, letting the democracy that’s always allowed our nation to thrive to put the best ideas forward so states can decide for themselves,” Oz said during the debate.

President Biden and other Democrats hammered Oz over the remark on Wednesday.

Note: More than 600,000 ballots had already been cast early by the time of the debate — the only one that will take place in the Pennsylvania Senate race. 

Fetterman’s campaign spokesman said the campaign raised $1 million in the hours after it ended. And Fetterman is set to hold a campaign rally with musician Dave Matthews on Wednesday evening.

BRIEFLY

A growing number of Republicans are saying they doubt former President Trump will be the GOP’s 2024 nominee. The Hill’s Brett Samuels has more on the potential party showdown.

Former Trump White House chief of staff Mark Meadows has been ordered to testify in a Georgia lawsuit over the 2020 election.

Three men have been convicted of supporting the plot to kidnap Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D).

The Supreme Court may overturn race-based school admissions. The Hill’s Cheyanne M. Daniels and Sarakshi Rai break it down here.

💰 White House cracks down on ‘junk’ fees

President Biden announced plans on Wednesday to provide families relief from so-called “junk fees” heading into the heavy travel season. 

“There’s an entire industry that’s popping up in America to help companies use complicated algorithms to hide fees that hurt consumers and help them. These things add up,” Biden said in announcing the plan. 

What is a “junk fee”? As Biden explained, junk fees are surprise charges that companies sneak into bills. They range from banking overdraft fees, excessive credit card late fees, hidden hotel booking fees, extra airline fees and termination charges to stop consumers from switching cable and Internet plans. 

How will it affect people? The administration estimates that the efforts to curb — or in some cases outlaw — various types of these fees will save consumers billions. 

Is this too late to move the election needle? Some Biden allies quickly lamented that the president didn’t take this action earlier in the election cycle to help drive down inflation, which Democrats are getting hammered on. Also: More than 12.2 million voters already have cast their ballots through early voting methods. 

THE HILL EDUCATION SUMMIT 

🕥 Biden official talks pandemic losses

The Hill’s editor-in-chief Bob Cusack talked with Department of Education Assistant Secretary Roberto Rodriguez, Utah Gov. Spencer Cox (R) and other experts at The Hill’s State of American Education event about the pandemic’s effects on students and ideas on how to make up education losses.

• Rodriguez called the recent Nation’s Report Card “alarming,” saying, “[W]e’ve never seen the levels of decline, particularly in 8th grade mathematics.”
  
• The Biden official said pandemic-related learning losses “spared no zip code” and that the administration is focused on supporting state and local leaders to accelerate instruction and provide tutoring and tailored instruction.  

On the politics surrounding education: Rodriguez said when “you get down to the local level, and you talk to principals and … teachers about what they’re doing and what works, they’re not thinking about whether that’s a conservative strategy or progressive strategy.”

“We’re seeing … new narratives that are trying to divide our parents from our teachers, when in fact we know, actually, our school principals, our system leaders, and our parents are on the same page,” he continued.

“They want [students] to be safe, they want them to be healthy, they want them to learn.”  

Watch the full event here.

NEXT UP: DEI SUMMIT

Tune in Thursday for The Hill’s Diversity, Equity & Inclusion event, moderated by The Hill’s Race & Politics reporter Cheyanne Daniels and contributing editor Steve Clemons. RSVP and watch here. 

NUMBER TO KNOW

43% 

President Biden’s approval rating, from a new Morning Consult-Politico poll.

Our colleague Julia Mueller wrote, “Approval for the president has appeared to climb back from dramatic lows earlier this year, but still sits lower than his disapproval rating, with 55 percent disapproving.”

“The president’s party, though, held a lead on a generic congressional ballot, with 47 percent saying they’d cast their ballot for a Democratic candidate and 42 percent saying the same of a Republican candidate.” 

Read more from The Hill

🎃 Spooky West Wing

The White House is leaning into Halloween to encourage people to get their vaccine booster shots and avoid a “spooky” holiday season.

President Biden got his latest booster on Tuesday, and the White House is going up with social media posts encouraging others to follow suit.

• “Carve out time to get your updated Covid vaccine,” one message reads, along with a jack-o-lantern.
  
• “Avoid a spooky Thanksgiving,” the White House said in another message posted to Facebook Reels.
  
  

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