Worst storms of 2025 will be outside Tornado Alley, severe weather forecast predicts

(NEXSTAR) – Tornadoes can (and have) hit every U.S. state, but the area nicknamed Tornado Alley is probably where your mind goes when you think of dangerous twisters. This year, that’s not be the region of highest concern, according to an AccuWeather severe outlook released this month.

There’s no scientific boundaries to Tornado Alley, the National Severe Storms Laboratory says, and every map of the area looks slightly different. Older maps, from the 20th century, typically show a danger zone stretching from South Dakota down to Texas, covering most of Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma in between.

But in more recent years, researchers have found the area of greatest danger has shifted east of that classic conception of Tornado Alley.

AccuWeather forecasters believe that will be the case again this year, with the highest risk of damaging storms and tornadoes in the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys.

“This forecast is concerning because more people are in harm’s way, compared to Tornado Alley. More people live in the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys, and more of those families are in vulnerable buildings without basements like mobile homes,” explained lead long-range expert Paul Pastelok.

Even though you may not think of Mississippi or Alabama when you think of Tornado Alley, the people who live there are no stranger to severe weather danger.

“A lot of people think Tornado Alley is shifting, but there’s actually two Tornado Alleys. It’s just the one in the southeastern United States, called ‘Dixie Alley,’ that’s getting more attention,” said Emily Sutton, a meteorologist with Nexstar’s KFOR.

Where we see the worst severe weather in spring shifts every year, Sutton said, and largely depends on El Niño or La Niña. With a La Niña, as we’re seeing this year, the dry line shifts east, resulting in more storms on the eastern side of that line, she explained.

The time of the year also changes where we see the most tornado activity. The southeastern U.S. typically “flares up more around February, March, and then traditional storm season follows the jet stream. So Texas it would be more April, Oklahoma it’s more May, and there are even storms in Chicago where it’s more of a summertime thing, July or June.”

Overall, the long-range team at AccuWeather predicts between 1,300 and 1,450 will form around the U.S. in 2025. That’s several hundred fewer than we saw in 2024.

The National Weather Service plans to release its own spring weather outlook later this month.