Geomagnetic storm watch issued; northern lights could come to these states

(NEXSTAR) — A geomagnetic storm watch has been issued for Monday and Tuesday this week after an eruption of solar material was detected early Sunday morning.

NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) warned about the eruption, known as a coronal mass ejection (CME) in a post to X. While “the general public does not need to be concerned,” the agency notes the CME could lead to the northern lights being visible across a handful of states in the coming days.

What causes the northern lights?

The northern lights, otherwise known as the aurora, are often associated with CMEs.

CMEs are explosions of plasma and magnetic material from the sun that can reach Earth in as little as 15 to 18 hours, NOAA explains. According to NASA, CMEs can create currents in Earth’s magnetic fields that send particles to the North and South Poles. When those particles interact with oxygen and nitrogen, they can create auroras.

“It’s essentially the Sun shooting a magnet out into space,” Bill Murtagh, program coordinator for the SWPC and seasoned space weather forecaster, previously told Nexstar. “That magnet impacts Earth’s magnetic field and we get this big interaction.”

That interaction is known as a geomagnetic storm. The strength of the geomagnetic storm will impact how far south the northern lights will be visible.

To signify the strength of geomagnetic storms, the SWPC uses a 5-point scale. At the lowest end is G1, which is described as minor storms that can lead to aurora being visible in Maine and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. A G5 storm, described as extreme, could send the northern lights as far south as Florida and southern Texas.

What will this week’s geomagnetic storm bring?

The impending storm the SWPC warned about Sunday is currently forecasted as a G2 moderate storm. This means states along the Canadian border, as well as a few more, have the greatest chance of seeing the aurora.

Technically, Alaska and Canada have the greatest odds at seeing the northern lights Sunday and Monday night, according to the SWPC aurora forecasts seen below.

For Sunday night, those in Washington, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin have a low likelihood at seeing the aurora. Those living as far south as northern Wyoming, South Dakota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, New York, New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine do still have a chance to see the aurora on the northern horizon — that’s denoted with the red line on the map below.

Aurora visibility is forecasted to grow on Monday, with many more northern states having at least a low likelihood at seeing the celestial glow. That includes Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine.

What to know about Solar Cycle 25

If you don’t get to see the northern lights this week, you may have another chance soon.

According to NOAA, we’re nearing the peak of Solar Cycle 25, an 11-year period in which it flips its north and south poles. During this time, various space weather events can occur that can bring geomagnetic storms — and the northern lights — to us on Earth.