Where it will cost most to heat your home this winter

(NEXSTAR) – A holiday gift is coming early this year. The average winter heating bill is expected to drop, according to projections by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

After a large spike in heating prices (and basically everything else) last year, Americans are getting some relief from rising costs. The EIA attributes the estimated 20% drop in winter heating prices to a large supply of natural gas and expected mild winter temperatures, among other factors.

But even with drops across the board, residents of many states are still expected to fork over more than $100 a month to keep their homes toasty. Personal finance site MoneyGeek analyzed the EIA data to determine which states are likely to see the highest monthly heating bill come winter.

Illinois residents are the unlucky winners who land at the top of the list. The average monthly natural gas bill this winter is expected to be $133. If it’s any consolation to Illinoisans, last year it was $168.

Oklahomans aren’t faring much better with a projected monthly bill of $128.

Natural gas customers out West are the luckiest this year, according to MoneyGeek. Many Californians are getting hit with rate increases, but surrounding states in the region are projected to see bills drop $30 to $50 a month.

The states with the highest monthly natural gas bills expected this winter, according to MoneyGeek’s analysis, are:

Rank	State	Household monthly natural gas bill (2023-34)	Last winter’s monthly natural gas bill
1	Illinois	$133	$168
2	Oklahoma	$128	$150
3	Alaska	$120	$170
4	Massachusetts	$116	$140
5	Connecticut	$113	$137
6	Colorado	$109	$154
7	Ohio	$106	$134
8	Michigan	$106	$133
9	New York	$105	$127
10	Wyoming	$104	$147
11	Pennsylvania	$101	$123
12	Utah	$100	$142
13	Montana	$98	$138
14	Kansas	$98	$124
15	Maryland	$98	$115

The states with the lowest monthly heating bills are pretty easy to predict (Hawaii, Florida, Arizona), but even states that experience more frigid winter temperatures are expected to see a big drop this year.

The average heating bill in Alaska is supposed to drop by about $50 a month, according to MoneyGeek’s analysis. Coloradans could pay $45 less per month, while households in Wyoming, Utah and Montana should all see monthly savings around $40.