Hot summer ahead: Weather predictions heat up in new NOAA forecast
(NEXSTAR) – An already sweltering summer forecast just got even steamier. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released a new long-range weather outlook Thursday that favors above-average temperatures for basically the entire United States.
Between July and September, all but a few states have between a 33% and 70% chance of a hotter-than-normal summer.
The highest chance for heat is in Arizona — which is already hot on even a normal summer day. The average high in Phoenix in July is 106 degrees.
The entire East Coast, from Maine down to Florida, the Gulf Coast, the Pacific Northwest and the Southwest is “likely” to see an above-normal summer, according to the forecast. NOAA gives about half of U.S. states a 50% to 60% chance of extra-hot weather over the next three months.
Things are a bit better in California and the Midwest, but those regions are also still more likely to see a hot summer than a cool one.
Most of the Hawaiian islands, which aren’t pictured on the map, are also expected to see above-normal temperatures between July and September, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
El Niño doesn’t usually have a large impact on summer weather, but the phenomenon arrived early this year. Meteorologists fear a strong El Niño would lead to the hottest year on record, like it did back in 2016.
NOAA also updated its precipitation outlook for the next three months on Thursday, but its predictions are less of a consensus across the country. Most of the country has equal chances of a wet or dry summer.
The only areas leaning toward above-normal rain are the Plains states down to northern Texas, as well as Florida.
A few areas on the map are also leaning toward below-average precipitation, which could bring on drought conditions if the weather is as hot as it’s expected to be.