Winners and losers emerge from supercommittee’s partisan stalemate‬

The supercommittee’s failure is being viewed widely as a debacle —
yet another sign that Washington cannot overcome partisan politics to
deal with the nation’s record deficit.

But the stalemate hasn’t
been a political nightmare for everyone in Washington. Politically, the
deadlocked talks have yielded both winners and losers, from lawmakers
who openly rooted against a deal to those who said failure was not an
option.

{mosads}Winners

President Obama’s reelection bid.
The president has taken a page from Harry Truman’s playbook, running
against Congress to help secure a second term. Without a doubt, the debt
panel’s flop helps his cause. Obama’s approval ratings are low, but
Congress’s are much lower. The fact that Obama was out of the country
during the endgame of the supercommittee was no accident. Republicans
are already citing the supercommittee’s failure to highlight that, in
sharp contrast to his campaign promises, Obama has not changed how
Washington operates. In the coming weeks, Obama and congressional
Democrats will go on the offensive on extending the payroll tax cuts and
unemployment insurance, two issues that were expected to be taken off
the table by the supercommittee.

Nancy Pelosi. The
California Democrat repeatedly rejected claims she wasn’t interested in a
major deal. But the minority leader is not disappointed with the
panel’s failure, because liberals have dodged major structural changes
to Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. Pelosi, who had to bite her
tongue after the tax deal of 2010 and the debt deal this summer, is now
expected to talk a lot about Rep. Paul Ryan’s (R-Wis.) controversial
Medicare plan. A grand, bipartisan deal would have largely taken that
off the table and decreased the Democrats’ chances of winning back the
House in 2012.

Grover Norquist. The anti-tax activist took a
lot of arrows this year, including from some in his own party. His
clout over the GOP was in question after the Senate voted to end ethanol
tax breaks this summer. Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) called him a
“random person.” Rep. Frank Wolf (R-Va.) attacked Norquist on the House
floor. Democrats, meanwhile, lambasted him on a daily basis. But GOP
leaders didn’t cross him — or his tax pledge that an overwhelming
majority of congressional Republicans have signed.

Harry Reid. Liberals
were incensed that the Senate majority leader helped cut the debt deal
this summer, an agreement that was dubbed a “Satan sandwich” by
Congressional Black Caucus Chairman Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.). But the
political winds shifted this fall, with many Democrats willing to accept
the sequestration cuts that would come with a supercommittee flop. Reid
made it clear to Boehner that Democrats would not cave this time,
challenging the Speaker to break from the Norquist pledge. It’s unclear
how the supercommittee failure will affect Reid’s chances of remaining
majority leader in 2013, but the liberal base is pleased. Republicans
note that the formation of the supercommittee was Reid’s idea, but few
voters will remember that.

Lobbyists. Election years are
typically slow for K Street, though 2012 is looking like it will be an
exception to that rule. The defense, healthcare and homeland security
industries are targeted for sequestration cuts, though they don’t kick
in until 2013. That gives lobbyists a full year to torpedo the
reductions (and bill their clients).

AARP. Throughout 2011,
major changes to Medicare and Social Security have been on the table.
During summer talks with Boehner, Obama embraced raising the eligibility
age of Medicare and making changes to Social Security’s consumer price
index. Republicans, meanwhile, were looking to means-test the Medicare
drug benefit. The supercommittee’s demise makes AARP a clear winner.

The pharmaceutical industry.
Democrats have long wanted to give the government enhanced power to
negotiate drug prices. And Republicans haven’t forgotten the deal the
Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America struck with the
Obama White House on healthcare reform. PhRMA dodged a bullet.

The agriculture industry.
Members on both sides of the aisle were considering farm subsidies as
part of a supercommittee deal. The threat was so real that House and
Senate Agriculture Committee members huddled for weeks to come up with
an offer that was aimed at heading off significant cuts. Ag officials
can rest easy, at least for the moment.

{mossecondads}Newt Gingrich. The
former Speaker mocked the supercommittee on multiple occasions,
predicting its failure soon after the panel was formed. That won’t win
him many votes, but gives him the chance to crow on the campaign trail.
Every little bit helps Gingrich, who is Mitt Romney’s greatest threat to
the GOP nomination.

Losers

The public’s trust of Congress.
The approval ratings of Congress are in the single digits, and the
supercommittee’s demise won’t help those numbers. Once again, Congress
disappoints. Some on Capitol Hill said they were embarrassed by the
partisan debt deal negotiations this summer, hoping that the
supercommittee would give Congress the chance to redeem itself. That
didn’t happen.

The Pentagon/homeland security.
Sequestration cuts will target the Defense Department and/or homeland
security programs. Republicans say they will aim to head off these cuts,
though Democrats have vowed to thwart those efforts.

Mitch
McConnell. The Senate minority leader said the supercommittee’s failure
was not an option. But it failed. McConnell constantly countered
suggestions that the supercommittee (which he always called a joint
committee) would fall short, telling reporters on Nov. 1 that the panel
“was set up to succeed.” He later said Obama was rooting for the
supercommittee to falter. Along that line of thinking, Obama got what he
wanted; McConnell didn’t. But McConnell can look at the glass
half-full. The Senate map favors the GOP, and many political analysts
believe the Kentucky Republican will be the majority leader in 2013.

Buck McKeon. The
House Armed Services Committee chairman has launched an aggressive
campaign against sequestration cuts to the Pentagon and vowed Monday to
introduce legislation blocking them. McKeon (R-Calif.) was considered a
leading contender to be on the supercommittee, but was passed over.
Earlier this year, McKeon said he was willing to cut taxes over Pentagon
cuts, then walked those comments back.

John Kerry. The
Massachusetts Democratic senator tried very hard for a deal, which would
have triggered memories of Ted Kennedy striking historic, bipartisan
agreements. Kerry even worried the left over how far he was willing to
go on a grand bargain, but the politics of the panel were too difficult
to overcome.

Pat Toomey. The Pennsylvania Senate Republican
worked closely with Kerry, and an agreement would have been a defining
moment for the former head of the Club for Growth. Now the freshman
Toomey goes back to being a rank-and-file member.

Mixed

John Boehner. The
Ohio Republican wanted a deal but was unwilling to violate the
principles of the Norquist pledge. Had he done so, some say his
Speakership could have been in jeopardy. The conservative base was
seeking major reforms to entitlement programs but would have never gone
along with the tax hikes Democrats wanted. Boehner is still in good
shape to remain Speaker in 2013, as Democrats need more than two dozen
seats to win back control of the chamber.

Jeb Hensarling.
America is now more familiar with the Texas Republican, the
supercommittee co-chairman who will be linked to the panel’s failure.
But striking a deal with Democrats could have been crippling to
Hensarling, the No. 4-ranked House GOP member, who is eyeing his way up
the leadership ladder.