The Hill’s Morning Report – Trump takes 2020 roadshow to New Mexico

by Alexis Simendinger and Al Weaver - 09/16/19 6:32 AM ET

SPONSORED BY AMAZON

Welcome to The Hill’s Morning Report. Happy Monday! Our newsletter gets you up to speed on the most important developments in politics and policy, plus trends to watch. Alexis Simendinger and Al Weaver are the up-early co-creators. Find us @asimendinger and @alweaver22 on Twitter and CLICK HERE to subscribe!

President Trump will rally supporters in New Mexico tonight as he kicks off a West Coast swing where he will look to line his campaign coffers and make an ambitious push to expand the 2020 map past the Midwest firewall that delivered his 2016 victory.

Trump’s rally in Rio Rancho, N.M., a suburb of Albuquerque, will be his first campaign rally in the state since his 2016 victory, having made two stops there prior to his victory, and it comes as he makes a renewed push to expand the 2020 map. Along with New Mexico, the campaign is targeting New Hampshire, Minnesota and Nevada.

However, compared to those three states, the climb is steeper in New Mexico. While Trump lost the three other states by a total of roughly 4.5 percentage points, he dropped New Mexico by more than 8 points. New Mexico has also trended blue in years past. Democrats control the governorship, both Senate seats, all three House seats and the state legislature, presenting a steep climb for the Trump campaign and its ambitions to flip the state.

“New Mexico is a blue state and getting bluer, and it’s always going to be uphill sledding for any Republican presidential candidate, including President Trump,” said Colin Reed, a GOP strategist. “While there are other states he has a better chance of flipping, trying to expand the electoral college map keeps his opponents guessing and denies them valuable news oxygen.”

However, the president’s team senses an opportunity. According to a campaign aide, the president’s rally in El Paso, Texas, in February saw “a significant number of registrants” from the Land of Enchantment. The state has also seen a more progressive shift recently on which the GOP believes it can capitalize. As Alex Leary of The Wall Street Journal writes:

“Republicans hope to capitalize on Democrats’ pursuit of environmental policies that could hurt the state’s oil-and-gas industry. In March, Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham signed into law landmark energy legislation mandating emission-free electricity by 2045. Several leading Democratic presidential candidates have outlined their own proposals, including bans on fracking, which has been a boon to New Mexico’s economy.”

The Associated Press: Trump’s rally in New Mexico a bid for an upset next year.

The Associated Press: New Mexico preps for Trump after past rallies sparked unrest.

A few months ago, Oregon was the Trump campaign’s expand-the-map flirtation, CNN reported in June. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won Oregon by 11 points, and the last time the state voted for a GOP presidential candidate was 1984. Trump’s campaign has the finances to make long-shot plays, and to make the eventual Democratic nominee spend money in blue states.

After the president’s New Mexico stop, he is slated to make a fundraising swing through California where he’ll hold four campaign events. While Trump has no chance of winning the state, it’s an opportunity to continue his prolific fundraising. The Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee raised $105 million through the end of June. At the same time, they reported having $123 million in the bank.

McKay Coppins, The Atlantic: The heir? Ivanka Trump was always Trump’s favorite. But Donald Trump Jr. is emerging as his natural successor.

The Washington Post: Trump’s proposals to tackle California homelessness face local, legal obstacles.

On the Democratic side, Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) both came out in favor of impeaching Associate Justice Brett Kavanaugh on Sunday after The New York Times reported another allegation of sexual misconduct against the newest member of the Supreme Court.

According to the report, one of Kavanaugh’s former Yale classmates, Max Stier, notified senators and the FBI of the allegations, but the FBI did not investigate and Stier refused to confirm or discuss the information publicly. Since the report emerged, Warren and Harris called for Kavanaugh’s removal. Harris emailed supporters asking them to sign a petition supporting his impeachment (The Hill).

“I sat through those hearings. Brett Kavanaugh lied to the U.S. Senate and most importantly to the American people,” Harris wrote. “He was put on the Court through a sham process and his place on the Court is an insult to the pursuit of truth and justice. He must be impeached.”

As of this morning, 2020 Democratic candidates who support impeaching the justice include Warren, Harris, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas), former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg (The Hill).

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) will be asked this week if she supports impeaching Kavanaugh.

Among those who has not called for impeachment is former Vice President Joe Biden.

Biden called for an investigation in a statement late Monday, but stopped short of calling for Kavanaugh’s impeachment (Axios).

“We must follow the evidence to wherever it leads,” Biden said. “Doing this the right way is critically important in getting the truth and restoring the American people’s faith in their government.”

Another candidate who stopped short of calling for the associate justice’s impeachment is Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), a member of the Judiciary Committee. When asked on Sunday about the new allegation, she told ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday that Kavanaugh’s vetting process was “a sham.”

“My concern here is that the process was a sham. I don’t think you can look at impeachment hearings without getting the documents … and the attorney general is shielding documents,” she said.

The president, however, lambasted the report, tweeting that Kavanaugh should sue The New York Times for libel or that the Department of Justice should have his back.

“Brett Kavanaugh should start suing people for libel, or the Justice Department should come to his rescue. The lies being told about him are unbelievable,” Trump wrote. “False Accusations without recrimination. When does it stop? They are trying to influence his opinions. Can’t let that happen!”

LEADING THE DAY

CONGRESS: As the White House prepares to release its plan to combat gun violence, chatter continues to emanate through the Senate about a possible solution to expand background checks. However, it’s a long road for supporters of expanded background checks. They need 13 Republicans to break ranks.

Alexander Bolton took a look at the Senate Republicans who are crucial to passing gun violence legislation of any kind, including on background checks. Headlining the group is Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), who was the GOP lead sponsor of the Manchin-Toomey bill in the aftermath of the 2012 mass shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Conn. Toomey is one of two Senate Republicans still in the chamber to vote for the bill, along with Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine).

Others include a group of Senate Republicans up for reelection in 2020, led by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who is involved in talks and has expressed interest in putting legislation on the floor as long as it has a stamp of approval from the president.

Among those also viewed as crucial are Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a top Trump ally who is at the center of talks, and Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), who expressed interest in supporting a bill along the lines of Toomey-Manchin and is involved in talks along with Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio).

In the latest turn of events, Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) offered a warning shot on Sunday during a conversation with the president, telling him that anything short of action on universal background checks “will not get the job done” (Politico).

While lawmakers await Trump’s recommendations, members of Congress look to colleagues who have experienced gun violence. Two Democrats on the House Judiciary Committee have lost family members to guns, while three others represent districts in which constituents were gunned down in recent high-profile mass shootings.

This dynamic came into full view last week as the House Judiciary Committee engaged in emotional debate over legislation to ban high-capacity magazines and encourage states to adopt “red flag” laws as a response to mass shootings this summer.

Lawmakers with personal experience can argue how such proposals could have made a difference in their own situations. Conversely, a handful of GOP members of the committee who also represent districts where mass shootings occurred have used their cases as examples of why Democrats’ bills wouldn’t deter such tragedies (The Hill).

> Spending slog: Government funding talks in the Senate are off to a rough start with less than two weeks to go until the deadline to prevent the second government shutdown this year.

The impasse raises doubts about whether senators will be able to move fiscal year 2020 bills through the chamber this month, a setback for Republicans who wanted to clear a major package before October.

However, senators are at a stalemate over major provisions, namely topline spending figures and a mammoth defense bill that cleared the committee along party lines that is unable to pass on the floor, along with a homeland security bill that Republicans say is so controversial they are considering not bringing it up at all (The Hill).

Politico: Moderate Democrats warn Pelosi of impeachment obsession.

******

MORE POLITICS: Democrats competing for the chance to challenge the president next year in 2020 are trying to thread the needle when it comes to discussing the ongoing trade war with China.

2020 Democratic presidential candidates are promising to ramp down the economically painful trade war while also vowing to be tough on China, as exhibited during Thursday’s debate in Houston when myriad candidates bashed the president for what they consider a non-strategic plan.

“The president clearly has no strategy,” said Buttigieg. Castro called Trump’s approach to trade “erratic” and “haphazard,” while Harris compared the president’s trade policy to the man behind the curtain in “The Wizard of Oz.”

More tellingly, though, none of the candidates said they would immediately scrap Trump’s tariffs if they took office. Instead, they pledged to seek a negotiated solution with China — the same thing Trump says is needed to eliminate the tariffs.

The Associated Press: Biden’s “record player” just one of his vintage references.

> Medicare for All: The Democratic clash over “Medicare for All” is highlighting perhaps the biggest question for 2020 primaries: Who has the best chance of beating Trump?

Some top Democrats are warning that the full-scale version of Medicare for All pushed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Warren would be a liability in the general election, a turn off to swing voters worried about losing their private health insurance under the proposal or seeing their taxes rise in order to pay for it.

“I just biked around Lake Michigan, nearly 1,000 miles, through Michigan and Wisconsin, two really important states. Nobody at a diner ran at me and said, ‘Take my health care away,’” said former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel on ABC’s “This Week.”

However, progressives continue to argue that playing it “safe” and using the approach supported by longtime Democrats has failed in the past, most notably in 2016 with Hillary Clinton, and that bold proposals are needed to energize voters and, ultimately, defeat the president.

The Associated Press: Warren has own plan for everything, though not health care.

Politico: Sanders shakes up campaign leadership in New Hampshire.

SPONSORED CONTENT – AMAZON

Amazon business success without leaving home

A rural Idaho mom built a business selling her products through an Amazon storefront without leaving the land she loves. See how.

IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES

WHITE HOUSE & ADMINISTRATION: The Saturday attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities originated from a direction indicating that Iran was behind it, and cruise missiles may have been the weapon of choice, according to a senior U.S. official on Sunday. Initial reports were that Yemen’s Houthi rebels had launched drone attacks, a claim of responsibility strongly disputed by the Trump administration. The strike on Saudi Arabia’s oil industry, which included damage to the world’s biggest petroleum-processing facility, was expected to send oil prices up $5 to $10 per barrel today and escalate tensions across the Middle East (Reuters).

Trump tweeted on Sunday that “there is reason to believe we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification.”

Iran denied blame and said it was ready for a “full-fledged war” (Reuters).

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Saturday asserted that Iran was behind what he called “an unprecedented attack on the world’s energy supply” and asserted there was “no evidence the attacks came from Yemen” (The New York Times).

The president on Saturday condemned the attack in a statement and offered Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman “support for Saudi Arabia’s self-defense.”

The Associated Press: Oil prices jumped today following damage to Saudi plant.

The Washington Post: Trump administration on Sunday contemplated what U.S. officials characterized as a serious military response.

The New York Times: The attack on Saudi oil facilities is seen as a short-term disruption.

Separately, Energy Secretary Rick Perry today is expected to meet with Saudi energy officials to discuss an agreement to build nuclear reactors there (Bloomberg).

Before the attacks on Saudi Arabia’s energy facilities, U.S. analysts said they expected Trump’s “extreme pressure” policy toward Iran to shift in the wake of the White House departure of national security adviser John Bolton. But what comes next is unclear. Critics say Trump’s goals for any new nuclear deal with Tehran remain murky. The president’s supporters, meanwhile, are invested in seeing that Trump maintains a hard line against Iran (The Hill).

Prior to the weekend attacks, Pompeo floated the potential of a meeting between Trump and President Hassan Rouhani of Iran. The president in a Sunday tweet denied there was ever such a possibility in the absence of verifiable conditions.

> Strike: In the first national strike against General Motors since 2007, roughly 49,000 workers voted to go on strike just before midnight Sunday, although talks between the United Auto Workers and the automaker are to resume this morning. Union leaders in Detroit said the sides were still far apart on several major issues. Workers say they want “fair” wages, affordable health care, profit sharing, job security and a path to permanent employment for temporary workers. GM offered $7 billion in U.S. factory investments, “best in class wages and benefits,” improved profit sharing and a payment of $8,000 to each worker upon ratification. The offer included wage or lump sum increases in all four years of a proposed contract deal, plus “nationally leading” health benefits (The Associated Press).

> China: Beijing’s refusal to bend too far in trade and intellectual property negotiations with the United States leaves the administration with limited leverage as Trump seeks a trade victory to present to voters during his reelection campaign. President Xi Jinping and top Chinese officials have signaled their willingness to accept some pain at home under U.S. tariffs rather than agree to major concessions. China experts say the political cost to Xi of yielding to Trump could be more damaging than living with the tariffs as Xi seeks to solidify his power in the Communist Party while expanding influence over the world economy (The Hill). Last week, however, a modest thaw between the two major economies emerged as Trump postponed by two weeks a start date for more tariffs on Chinese goods and China announced it would lift punitive tariffs on U.S. pork and soybeans (The Associated Press). U.S. and Chinese negotiators plan to meet again in early October.

> Vaping: The Trump administration’s planned ban on flavored e-cigarette products is aimed at protecting young people from damaging health effects of vaping, but it could have unintended consequences for adult smokers. The debate about the administration’s new regulatory policy includes a discussion about e-cigarettes’ role in smoking cessation and whether the Trump ban could inadvertently send smokers back to traditional tobacco products.

“While banning things sounds like a good idea on the surface, there’s always trade-offs,” said Raymond Niaura, a psychologist and expert on tobacco treatment at New York University. “That may solve some problems but create others” (The Hill).

Trump is aware of concerns and criticisms. “While I like the Vaping alternative to Cigarettes, we need to make sure this alternative is SAFE for ALL! Let’s get counterfeits off the market, and keep young children from Vaping!” he tweeted on Friday.

The Morning Report is created by journalists Alexis Simendinger and Al Weaver. We want to hear from you! Email: asimendinger@digital-stage.thehill.com and aweaver@digital-stage.thehill.com. We invite you to share The Hill’s reporting and newsletters, and encourage others to SUBSCRIBE!

OPINION

James Mattis dodges toughest question, by Albert Hunt, opinion contributor, The Hill. https://bit.ly/2lXdUHJ

We are Trump’s Republican challengers. Canceling GOP primaries is a critical mistake, by Mark Sanford, Joe Walsh and Bill Weld, opinion contributors, The Washington Post. https://wapo.st/2kcFyjw

WHERE AND WHEN

Hill.TV’s “Rising” at 9 a.m. ET features Cassie Smedile, deputy communications director for the RNC, to respond to a joint op-ed by Trump primary challengers criticizing the GOP for canceling primaries; Emma Vigeland, correspondent for The Young Turks, to react to last week’s debate; Chuck Rocha, senior adviser for the Sanders campaign, to give some post-debate takeaways; and Andrew Romanoff to discuss his Democratic Senate bid in Colorado. Find Hill.TV programming at http://digital-stage.thehill.com/hilltv or on YouTube at 10 a.m.

The House meets at 1 p.m. for a pro forma session.

The Senate will convene at 3 p.m.

The president participates in a credentialing ceremony for the newly appointed ambassadors to Washington this morning. Trump and first lady Melania Trump participate in the presentation of the Presidential Medal of Freedom to former New York Yankees pitcher Mariano Rivera at 2 p.m. Trump and Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa of Bahrain are scheduled to meet at the White House at 3 p.m. The president will headline a reelection rally in Rio Rancho, N.M., a suburb of Albuquerque, at 9 p.m. ET. Trump will remain overnight in Albuquerque.

Whistleblower and former CIA contractor Edward Snowden, who remains in exile in Moscow while dodging U.S. espionage charges, will be interviewed today on CBS “This Morning” and on MSNBC, talking with Brian Williams. Snowden is promoting his new memoir, “Permanent Record,” which was reviewed by The New York Times HERE.