Trafalgar chief pollster predicts Trump victory: Polls ‘predominantly missing the hidden vote’

Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly told Fox News host Sean Hannity on Tuesday night he sees President Trump being reelected, citing a “hidden vote” Cahaly says is predominantly missing from polling showing Democratic nominee Joe Biden leading nationally and in most swing states.

Trafalgar Group’s polling in 2016 showed Trump leading in key battleground states including Pennsylvania and Michigan when almost all other pollsters had the Republican nominee trailing Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Trump ended up wining both of those states and Wisconsin, becoming the first GOP presidential nominee to do so in decades.

“I see the president winning with a minimum high 270s and possibly going up significantly higher based on just how big this undercurrent is,” Cahaly said, referring to Electoral College votes. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the White House. 

“What we’ve noticed is that these polls are predominantly missing the hidden Trump vote. There is a clear feeling among conservatives and people that are for the president that they’re not interested in sharing their opinions readily,” he added. “These people are more hesitant to participate in polls. So if you’re not compensating for this, you’re not going to get honest answers.”

Joined @FoxNews @seanhannity tonight to give a glimpse into why our @trafalgar_group polls are showing a tightening race. You can watch the full segment here: https://t.co/sKJEGJZ2g0 pic.twitter.com/gMxFKQ9tE3

— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 21, 2020

A number of news organizations see Biden as the clear favorite in the race given his lead in national polls and most polls of key swing states.

The website FiveThirtyEight gives Biden an 88 percent chance of winning on Nov. 3. On Oct. 20, 2016, FiveThirtyEight gave Clinton an 87 percent chance of winning.

Biden currently leads Trump in the RealClearPolitics index of polls in battleground states of North Carolina, Florida, Arizona, Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania by an average of 4 points, 49.2 percent to 45.2 percent.