Cook Report shifts 9 House races toward Dems day before election

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted nine House races toward Democrats in a new forecast published Monday, the day before the midterm elections. 

Cook moved one race, an open seat in Washington where Rep. Dave Reichert (R) is retiring, to “leaning Democrat” from “toss-up.”

{mosads}It moved two more races from “lean Republican” to toss-up. The first is in Pennsylvania, where House Freedom Caucus member Rep. Scott Perry (R) is facing a tough reelection fight. The second is Georgia’s 6th District, where Karen Handel, who won an expensive special election race in 2017, is in a tough race. The district was once held by former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R).  

Another race that Democrats are already favored to win, a seat now held by the retiring Rep. Darrell Issa, was moved from leaning to “likely Democrat.”

In five other races shifted by Cook, the GOP is still favored to win. But the shift shows the races are closer than expected and points to the large number of seats the GOP is being forced to defend.

Three races — in Texas’s 6th and 10th congressional districts and in West Virginia’s 2nd District — moved from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican.” Two other races — Florida’s 25th and 6th districts, went from likely Republican to leaning Republican.

The only race that shifted in favor of Republicans was Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, where incumbent Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D-Ariz.) is facing Republican challenger Wendy Rogers. That race was shifted from likely Democrat to leaning Democrat.

NEW at @CookPolitical: 10 final House rating changes. Biggest moves are towards Dems:#FL25: Diaz-Balart (R) – Likely R to Lean R#GA06: Handel (R) – Lean R to Toss Up#MI06: Upton (R) – Likely R to Lean R#PA10: Perry (R) – Lean R to Toss Up#WA08: OPEN (R) – Toss Up to Lean D

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 5, 2018

The movement is the latest indication that Democrats have the upper-hand in the House prior to Tuesday’s midterms, when Democrats need to pick up 23 seats to regain control of the lower chamber. 

The previous Cook ratings were released on Oct. 30.