Poll suggests GOP lawmakers in New Jersey could be wiped out in November

Every Republican House member from New Jersey is in danger of losing their seat in this year’s midterm elections, according to a new Monmouth University poll.

The survey released on Monday finds Democrats with a 19-point advantage statewide on the generic ballot, with 54 percent of respondents saying they plan to or are leaning toward voting for Democrats, compared to only 34 percent for Republicans.

Monmouth pollers say this puts all five of New Jersey’s GOP-held seats at risk.

{mosads}“This is pretty astounding. Not only are New Jersey Democrats doing better on the generic House ballot statewide, but the shift is coming almost entirely from districts currently held by the GOP,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. “If these results hold, we could be down to just one or two — or maybe even zero — Republican members in the state congressional delegation after November.”

The poll notes that in the five districts currently represented by Republicans, 46 percent of voters back the Republican candidate while 44 percent back the Democratic one.

However, in the past two elections, these districts averaged a 22-point advantage for Republicans.

In contrast, 59 percent of voters in the seven districts currently represented by Democrats support Democratic candidates. Only 28 percent back GOP ones.

New Jersey residents’ negative view of President Trump is seen as the main factor for these results, according to the poll, and the Republican tax law is another potential cause.

Only 35 percent of New Jersey residents approve of the law and 46 percent disapprove, according to Monmouth University. Nearly half of New Jersey residents believe their taxes will go up because of the law, and only 19 percent think they will go down.

The poll was conducted from April 6 to 10 among 632 voters and has a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points.