Some Democrats think Pelosi stays if Democrats win

As questions swirl around the future of Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Democrats on Capitol Hill say the Speaker’s fate might hinge directly on the party’s success in next month’s elections.

Pelosi, 82, had promised to bow out of her leadership spot at the end of this term, and many Democrats expect she’ll follow through, particularly if Republicans flip control of the lower chamber, as is widely expected.

But if Democrats defy the odds and keep their House majority — a feat that would be virtually impossible without Pelosi’s prodigious fundraising — then the calculus might change dramatically. Some lawmakers said Pelosi, at that point, could write her own ticket. 

“If she wins, she stays,” said Rep. Ron Kind (D), a retiring Wisconsin moderate who had opposed Pelosi’s Speakership in 2018. “If she doesn’t, I think there will be a serious discussion as far as what succession looks like then.”

A Pelosi bid to remain in power — whatever the election outcome — would surely spark an outcry from certain corners of the caucus, where there’s long been an appetite for newer members to climb into the top tiers of leadership. That sentiment is particularly pronounced among heartland Democrats, one of whom lamented Pelosi’s “toxic” reputation in some blue- collar districts, which Republicans have exploited for years in campaign ads. 

While most of those Democratic critics have remained silent this year, in order to keep the party unified heading into the midterms, a few have been open about their desire for an immediate changing of the guard.

“It’s time for generational diversity in our senior leadership ranks, both in the executive branch, and the legislative branch,” said Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), who has also urged President Biden not to seek a second term. “Plain and simple.”

It’s unclear how many Democrats would oppose Pelosi if she sought to remain in the top spot, but the number will be determining. If the party were to keep control of the House, it would likely be by the slimmest of margins, allowing Pelosi few defections in a Speaker race that requires support from a majority of the full House, not merely that of her caucus.

A New York Times/Siena College poll on Monday offered bad news for Democrats hoping to pull off a surprise in the House, showing Republicans with a 4-point advantage in terms of which party voters say they want to represent them in Congress.

Some of her critics are already warning that there’s enough opposition to ensure that Pelosi departs, whether voluntarily or otherwise. 

“I look at the senior leadership post, and I think it’s time,” said a moderate lawmaker who spoke anonymously to discuss a sensitive topic. 

But another group of Democrats isn’t so sure Pelosi’s exodus is sealed, particularly if she can somehow steer the party through the midterms with its fragile majority intact. Just this cycle, Pelosi has already hauled in more than $210 million for the party’s campaign arm alone — far and away the highest figure in the party — and she’s spreading it across scores of races in a long shot effort to keep the Democrats’ advantage.   

“If we win the House again, and she wanted to be Speaker again, I think the House would vote for her,” said Rep. John Larson (D-Conn.), a former member of Pelosi’s leadership team. “So she’s gonna determine what she’s gonna do.” 

When and how Pelosi exits has become one of Washington’s most enduring parlor games — one in which Pelosi has steadfastly refused to participate. 

“I’m strictly focused on winning the next election,” she said just before the midterm recess, brushing off the reporter who’d asked the question, “Who’s next?”

First elected in 1987, Pelosi has led the Democrats for 19 of her 35 years in Congress, becoming the country’s first female Speaker in 2007 and returning to that spot for a second stint in 2019. In the process, she’s helped to enact some of the most significant legislation in generations, including ObamaCare and the massive climate bill adopted this year.

But Pelosi’s staying power has also frustrated the ambitions of younger Democrats eager to see fresh faces at the top of the party. Paving the way for generational change, she vowed in 2018 that this year would be her last at the helm — a promise to a group of roughly 20 Democratic detractors that helped land their support and win her the gavel for a second time.

Some of those critics are making clear their intent to hold Pelosi to her word. 

“I expect her to uphold the promise she made,” said one of those Democrats, who predicted the opposition to Pelosi’s continued leadership now far exceeds the number in 2018. “The expectation is much broader than that group. There are a lot of people who expect her to uphold the promise that she made well beyond the group.”

Yet, there are others among Pelosi’s previous detractors who said her performance with the gavel over the past four years, particularly when she played foil to former President Trump, means she can decide her own future — if Democrats are able keep control of the House. 

“The reality is that the Trump presidency gave her an opportunity to really strengthen her hand, and I think she’s done a pretty remarkable job since she took the Speaker’s gavel back. In retrospect, my position was probably a mistake,” said one of those 2018 opponents. 

“If we’re still in the majority and Nancy decides to stay?” the lawmaker added. “They’re not going to be able to replace her at that point.”

The same is not true, however, if the Republicans seize control of the House in November, as appears increasingly likely. Democrats can afford to lose only four seats, on net, and Republicans are on the offensive, boosted by rampant inflation, volatile gas prices and President Biden’s dismal approval rating, which has been underwater for more than a year. In the current environment, the nation’s top election handicappers are predicting Republicans will pick up between 15 and 20 seats. 

If that’s the case, numerous Democrats said, Pelosi’s leadership tenure would likely reach an end. 

“If the House flips, that really means change,” said a Pelosi ally. “If it doesn’t, it’s a totally different question.”

What happens to Pelosi’s longtime lieutenants — Reps. Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) and James Clyburn (D-S.C.) — is another uncertainty heading into the midterms. Both have been clear that they were not a part of the leadership term-limit promise Pelosi made four years ago, but they’ve been silent about their intentions. 

Kind, of Wisconsin, acknowledged the “itch” for a younger crop of Democrats to climb into the leadership ranks. “And that’s not bad,” he said. But if Democrats pull an upset, it would be largely on Pelosi’s shoulders, he added, and she’d have earned the chance to stay in power. 

“It’s an incredible, tireless effort she’s putting in to hold onto the majority right now,” Kind said. “So I think it would be bad manners for the caucus to kick her out at that point.”