Insiders dominate year of the outsider

In a cycle in which political outsiders Donald Trump and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) have been powerful forces in the presidential race, insiders continue to win House and Senate primaries around the country.

Only five members of Congress have lost bids for renomination as the primary season draws to a close.

{mosads}Two of those losers, Reps. Corrine Brown (D-Fla.) and Chaka Fattah (D-Pa.), were fighting federal indictments over misappropriated funds.

Two more, Reps. Renee Ellmers (R-N.C.) and Randy Forbes (R-Va.), lost after mid-decade redistricting forced them to court unfamiliar voters.

A fifth, Rep. Tim Huelskamp (R-Kan.), was arguably more of a political outsider than his opponent.

Huelskamp, a member of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, lost to a fellow Republican who had the tacit backing of party leaders angered by Huelskamp’s actions in Washington.

Three states will hold their primary elections next Tuesday. In those states, only one incumbent — Rep. Frank Guinta (R-N.H.) — faces a serious challenge following a campaign finance scandal and repeated run-ins with the Federal Election Commission.

The establishment victories come despite political winds that favored outsiders.

Angry at a political system they see as stacked against them, millions of voters turned out during the primary season to cast ballots for Trump and Sanders, both of whom railed against the establishment and promised wholesale change.

At the same time, those voters renominated the vast majority of lawmakers seeking another term in office — despite the current Congress’s terrible approval ratings.

Strategists who pay careful attention to House races attribute incumbents’ high retention rate, even amid voters’ desire for change, to a few factors.

The first, and most obvious, comes from the likes of Trump and Sanders, who gave voters a way to express their anger.

“The top of the ticket this year has provided ample room to stretch your legs and vent your anger on both sides of the ticket,” said Brad Todd, who has run independent expenditures for the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRSC) for years. “Feeling the Bern or getting on the Trump Train was a lot more exciting as recreational activity than beating up on your local congressman in a primary.”

Some Republican strategists point to the fact that many of the groups who might ordinarily bolster conservative challengers have been otherwise occupied trying to stop Trump, now the Republican presidential nominee.

The Club for Growth, which funded many conservative challengers in previous years, has largely avoided taking on incumbents this year. Instead, the group has spent money funding candidates in open seats — and on advertisements during the presidential primaries aimed at wounding Trump.

The second factor aiding incumbents is partisan polarization, which gives members a chance to direct voter anger at the other party. Sanders supporters may see Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton as untrustworthy or too centrist, and Trump backers may blame GOP leadership for failing to hold the line against President Obama, but their level of anger at the other party exceeds the intramural squabbling. 

Trump voters hate Democrats, and Sanders supporters despise Republicans, factors incumbents can use in what might otherwise be tough primaries.

“While they get dinged by their primary challenger for being a sellout, out of touch, et cetera, they turn around and talk about voting six times to defund Planned Parenthood, or, in the case of a Democrat, voting six times to stop the defunding of Planned Parenthood,” said Rodd McLeod, a Democratic strategist in Arizona.

Finally, incumbents have learned to be prepared. After conservative challengers denied renomination to Sens. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) and Bob Bennett (R-Utah) and House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) in recent years, Republican strategists have worked overtime to make their incumbents understand the risks posed in a primary.

The NRSC and allied outside groups spent heavily last cycle to bolster Sens. Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) and Pat Roberts (R-Kan.). This year, members like Sens. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), Reps. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), Diane Black (R-Tenn.), Bill Flores (R-Texas) and Kevin Brady (R-Texas) heeded early warnings about potential challenges. All survived.

Even at the height of the Tea Party movement and the political tumult of the last decade, primary challengers were rarely successful. Since 2006, only 28 members of Congress have lost bids for reelection during the primaries.

The largest exodus came in 2012, when 13 members lost renomination. Nine of those members lost because they were running in districts substantially different from their old seats after the decennial redistricting cycle.

The two most visible challenges to incumbents this year came in Wisconsin and Florida, where conservatives tried to oust House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and liberals tried to knock off Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.), who until this summer chaired the Democratic National Committee. Unlike Cantor, both Ryan and Wasserman Schultz maintained strong political teams in their district, and both turned away their challengers.

“We’re at the point now that in most districts they’ve got a member who represents the leanings of the primary voting electorate, so there’s no motivation for a primary challenge,” said Carl Forti, a longtime Republican strategist involved in House and Senate campaigns.