Study: 26.8 million people could lose employer health coverage in downturn

A new study estimates that about 27 million people could lose their employer-sponsored health insurance in the middle of a pandemic due to job losses, though many will be able to find coverage elsewhere. 

The analysis from the Kaiser Family Foundation finds that as of May 2, 26.8 million people could have lost their employer health insurance because either they or a family member lost their job and the health insurance that came with it. More than 31 million people have filed for unemployment in recent weeks due to staggering losses from the coronavirus-caused economic downturn.

Not all of the 26.8 million people will become uninsured. In fact, the analysis finds that a large majority, 79 percent, will be eligible for government-subsidized coverage elsewhere, either through Medicaid or the Affordable Care Act marketplaces. 

However, 5.7 million people are not eligible for government help, due to factors like living in a state that did not expand Medicaid or making too much income to qualify for ACA subsidies. 

Many of those people could become uninsured, the study estimates. 

And even among the majority who are eligible for subsidized coverage elsewhere, they will need to sign up for it, and bureaucratic hurdles or lack of awareness about their options could lead some of those people to become uninsured too. 

The findings illustrate the dangers of having widespread job losses and loss of employer-provided health insurance combined with a health crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic. 

Congress is exploring ways to try to address the problem. The massive bill that House Democrats unveiled on Tuesday includes subsidies to cover the full cost of a program called COBRA that allows laid-off workers to stay on their old employer’s health insurance plan. That could provide an easier, more seamless way for people to keep coverage by simply remaining on the same plan. 

Republicans have expressed some openness to that idea, though they say the new funds must include restrictions on paying for abortion coverage, causing a standoff with Democrats.