Dems load up 2010 campaign coffers

Republicans have touted 2010 as their comeback year, but Democrats
point out that dozens of their potentially vulnerable incumbents have
yet to draw major GOP challengers.

Even so, that doesn’t mean Democrats aren’t prepared.

{mosads}Members of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s (DCCC) Frontline Program, which aids vulnerable incumbents, have raised record amounts of money.

“The natural reaction to a Democratic president and a Democratic Congress is going to be that the incumbent party is often on the defense,” said Rep. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), one of two members tasked with overseeing the program. “While the leave-behind of the Bush legacy is still with us, the fact is that we are going to have to go out next year and talk about what we did, not what the Republicans didn’t do.”

Frontline Democrats raised an average of $235,000 between July and the end of September. The 41 incumbents finished the third quarter with an average of $649,000 in the bank.

But Republicans have shown they’re not done recruiting, and several of their candidates listed strong third-quarter numbers.

Of those 41 Democrats, 28 face challengers who have banked more than $100,000, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission. And another three have attracted highly touted GOP challengers since the filing deadline has passed.

Murphy said the challenge is not unexpected.

“The reason that you’re on the Frontline Program is that you come from a district that is going to have a tough electoral fight,” Murphy said.

“The Republicans have had some strong recruits in some districts and weak recruits in others,” he added. But, he cautioned: “The first-term Democrats didn’t win their elections by mistake. They won in tough districts and often against some strong incumbents. They come to Congress battle-tested.”

The number of vulnerable Frontline members, and viable Republican challengers, could mean the DCCC spends a much greater amount of resources playing defense than offense.

During the 2008 elections, the DCCC made significant investments in just 10 of 34 districts named to that year’s incarnation of the Frontline Program. Just two Frontliners — former Reps. Nick Lampson (D-Texas) and Tim Mahoney (D-Fla.) — lost their reelection bids.

But the 2008 and 2010 cycles are very different, said National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) spokesman Paul Lindsay, because the environment has shifted so much.

“Many of these incumbent Democrats have never faced even a moderately pro-Republican environment, or even an environment that is not working in their favor,” he said.

Republicans have found recruiting success that eluded them over the last two cycles, as a number of members face well-funded challengers. Former Reps. Steve Pearce (R-N.M.), Tim Walberg (R-Mich.) and Steve Chabot (R-Ohio) are all vying for their old jobs against Frontline Democrats; Pearce significantly outraised Rep. Harry Teague (D-N.M.) during the last quarter.

Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D-Ohio) maintains a cash advantage over state Sen. Steve Stivers, her 2008 opponent, but Stivers outraised the incumbent by more than $30,000 over the last three months. Maryland State Sen. Andy Harris (R), who is headed for a rematch with Rep. Frank Kratovil (D-Md.), has more than $300,000 in the bank, while Colorado state Rep. Cory Gardner (R) and Virginia businessman Keith Fimian (R) are within sight of that mark as they seek to unseat Reps. Betsy Markey (D-Colo.) and Gerry Connolly (D-Va.), respectively.

Rep. Glenn Nye (D-Va.) has attracted two challengers who have largely self-funded their campaigns: Engineering contractor Ben Loyola (R) has $537,000 in the bank, while auto dealer Scott Rigell (R) has $412,000 cash on hand.

And Democrats are worried about some members whose fundraising pace has slowed.

{mosads}Rep. Larry Kissell (D-N.C.) raised just $84,000 last quarter, while Reps. Leonard Boswell (D-Iowa), Carol Shea-Porter (D-N.H.), Michael Arcuri (D-N.Y.), Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.) and Connolly all raised less than $150,000 for the quarter.

Republicans have shown they are not finished recruiting yet. Earlier this month, former state Sen. Joe Heck (R) said he would abandon his bid for governor in order to challenge Rep. Dina Titus (D-Nev.). State Sen. Scott Bruun (R) announced he would campaign against Schrader in Oregon. And state Sen. Robert Hurt (R) has entered the race against Rep. Tom Perriello (D-Va.).

Meanwhile, several longtime incumbents not included as members of the Frontline Program could get extra attention as the DCCC works to save their seats. Reps. John Tanner (D-Tenn.), Lincoln Davis (D-Tenn.) and Vic Snyder (D-Ark.) were all outraised by Republican challengers in the last quarter.

“Not only are these Republicans putting together strong campaigns, they’re ready to challenge House Democrats who continue to support [the] failed economic policies of their party,” Lindsay said.

On the other hand, a number of Frontline members remain uncontested so far. Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Ariz.), John Adler (D-N.J.), Mike McMahon (D-N.Y.) and Dan Maffei (D-N.Y.), all of whom won GOP-held seats in 2008, have no major challengers. Even Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.), whom Republicans have targeted since his controversial comments about the GOP’s lack of a healthcare plan, has yet to draw a credible opponent.

And though Republicans are confident in their improved political position, Democrats are not without targets. Four members of the Patriot Program, the NRCC’s incumbent retention roster, were outraised last quarter by their Democratic challengers. They include Reps. Dan Lungren (R-Calif.), Brian Bilbray (R-Calif.), Charlie Dent (R-Pa.) and Dave Reichert (R-Wash.).

Overall, members of the Patriot Program raised an average of $194,000 last quarter and have an average of $424,000 in the bank.