McCarthy says GOP will win control of House: ‘It’s not going to be a five-seat majority’

PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Fla. — House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) on Thursday predicted that Republicans will win control of the House in November — and that they won’t just scrape by with the bare minimum number of seats they need.

“We’re going to win the majority, and it’s not going to be a five-seat majority,” McCarthy told Punchbowl News in an interview — billed as a “fireside chat” — during House Republicans’ annual retreat in Florida. 

McCarthy’s confidence isn’t new. He’s predicted for months that Republicans will win back the majority in 2022, and the GOP is well positioned to do so. 

For one, the party in power typically loses ground in Congress in midterm elections, and Democrats currently control both chambers of Congress and the White House.  At the same time, President Biden’s approval rating has sagged for months — a trend that could portend trouble for Democrats in November.

What’s more, Democrats are holding onto a paper thin majority already. The GOP needs to pick up just five seats to recapture control of the House. 

Still, McCarthy declined to say exactly how many seats he expects the GOP to pick up this year, though he did say that it would fall short of Republicans’ gains in 2010, when the party netted 63 seats in the House. 

One reason for that, McCarthy said, is because the decennial redistricting process has left fewer competitive seats up for grabs. Consequently, he added, Republicans will have to compete in bluer parts of the country.

“The play this time, there’s fewer competitive seats in the old nature, so we’re going to have to be winning seats in Democratic areas,” he said.