Trump leads in hypothetical 2024 GOP primary: poll

Former President Trump maintains a dominant lead over other Republicans in a potential 2024 presidential primary, according to a new survey from Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll released exclusively to The Hill.

Trump gets the support of 47 percent of registered Republican and independent voters in a primary, 37 points higher than his nearest competitor, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who comes in second with 10 percent.

No other contender breaks double digits, with former Vice President Mike Pence coming in third with 9 percent. Another 19 percent said they were unsure.

In a field in which Trump does not run, Pence holds a narrow lead, with 23 percent support, just ahead of DeSantis’s 21 percent. In that field, Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas) is the only other Republican breaking double digits, with 12 percent.

“Donald Trump remains the candidate to beat in the republican primary though he is below 50 percent, so he is not invincible. Gov. Ron DeSantis continues to strengthen despite limited recognition as the emerging next choice,” said pollster Mark Penn.

Trump has not definitively said if he’s running for the White House again, though his allies have predicted he’ll make a third presidential bid in 2024.

The latest poll tracks similar recent surveys that all show that Trump would be the overwhelming favorite to win the GOP nomination in 2024 should he choose to run.

However, the former president’s approval rating is underwater, with 44 percent of registered voters approving of him and 49 percent disapproving.

On the Democratic side, President Biden has indicated he will run, though some have speculated the 78-year-old will bow out after one term.

In a scenario in which Vice President Harris is the Democrat’s nominee in 2024, the poll shows she trails DeSantis by a 42 percent to 40 percent margin in a head-to-head match, while she would trail Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) by a 42 percent to 39 percent margin. She’s tied with former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo at 41 percent among registered voters.

The survey from Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll was conducted among 1,578 registered voters Oct. 26-28. It is a collaboration of the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and the Harris Poll. 

The survey is an online sample drawn from the Harris Panel and weighted to reflect known demographics. As a representative online sample, it does not report a probability confidence interval.