Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifts Virginia governor race to ‘lean Republican’

Election handicapper Sabato’s Crystal Ball is shifting its outlook for the closely watched Virginia governor’s race on the eve of the election, moving it from the “Leans Democratic” column to “Leans Republican.”

In a late analysis explaining the decision to shift the race toward Republicans, Sabato’s Crystal Ball editors Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman noted that, while both Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin have their own set of advantages, it is Youngkin that has momentum heading into Tuesday’s election.

“Youngkin has the enthusiasm, the environment, the history, and perhaps even the issues (given his focus on education and its increasing salience in polling),” they wrote. “McAuliffe has the state’s Democratic lean in his favor.”

“However, we do feel we owe it to readers to push this race one way or the other and not just move it to a Toss-up rating at the end,” they continued. “So we’re moving from Leans Democratic to Leans Republican.”

The new rating by the election handicapper underscores just how close the race between McAuliffe and Youngkin has gotten. At the outset of the contest, McAuliffe appeared to have the advantage, given his high name ID and Virginia’s Democratic lean.

But Youngkin has managed to chip away at McAuliffe’s lead in recent months, seizing on issues like transgender access to school bathrooms and the teaching of critical race theory to win over conservatives and frustrated parents. 

McAuliffe, meanwhile, has sought to tie Youngkin closely to former President Trump in an effort to nationalize the governor’s race and win over the coalition of voters that helped propel Democratic victories in Virginia in recent years. 

But in their analysis, Coleman and Kondik wrote that McAuliffe’s Trump-heavy strategy may have fallen flat.

“Our sense is that the race has been moving toward Youngkin, in large part because of the political environment,” they wrote. “McAuliffe’s Trump-centric campaign also just doesn’t seem as potent in a non-federal race with the former president no longer in the White House.”