Poll: New Hampshire Senate race tight

New Hampshire Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) faces a difficult path to reelection against the popular Republican governor in her home state, a new poll shows, as Granite State voters give low marks to both their first-term senator and to President Biden.

The University of New Hampshire Survey Center’s Granite State Poll shows Hassan trailing Gov. Chris Sununu (R) by a 45 percent to 42 percent margin, within the margin of error and a sign of a virtually tied race. Previous polls taken in July and February showed largely the same results.

Hassan leads retired Army Gen. Don Bolduc (R) by a 47 percent to 42 percent margin, the poll found. And she would run neck and neck against former Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R), in a rematch of the race that Hassan won five years ago.

Bolduc has already declared his candidacy, and he won praise from former President Trump when he attacked Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mark Milley over interviews Milley gave to book authors questioning Trump’s mental capacity. Ayotte has not said whether she will run, though most New Hampshire Republicans don’t believe she will be a candidate.

National Republicans are engaged in a delicate dance with Sununu, whose name recognition and fundraising potential is strong enough that he can afford to wait before declaring his candidacy. Sununu has remained publicly noncommittal about a bid, though he has raised eyebrows in recent weeks with high-profile appearances at Republican events in California and Maine.

The poll found New Hampshire voters have soured on both Hassan and Sununu: Just 33 percent of Granite State voters see Hassan favorably, while 51 percent view her unfavorably. A plurality of New Hampshire voters, 41 percent, see Sununu favorably, but that number is down 10 points since August, while his unfavorable rating has risen by a dozen points in the same period.

The poll shows Sununu leading Hassan by a nearly 40-point margin among independents, 63 percent to 25 percent. Hassan leads among those who have a college degree, and the two are virtually tied among voters who have received at least some higher education, but Sununu leads 54 percent to 28 percent among those who did not attend college.

Hassan holds a 17-point advantage among women voters, while Sununu leads among men by a 58 percent to 32 percent edge.

Hassan is well ahead among voters who say they read the Boston Globe or listen to New Hampshire Public Radio. Sununu is up 11 points among those who take the New Hampshire Union Leader, historically a more conservative newspaper; he holds a 75 percent to 8 percent lead among those who watch Fox News.

The Granite State Poll was conducted Oct. 14-18 among 979 voters deemed likely to cast a ballot in the 2022 midterm elections. The poll carried a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.